Volume 16, Issue 1

This study uses patient-level data to analyze the effect of technological change embodied in pharmaceuticals on the longevity of elderly Americans. Previous patient-level studies could not control for important patient attributes such as education, income, and race; they did not provide estimates of the effect of using newer drugs on life expectancy, or of the overall cost-effectiveness of new drugs relative to old drugs; and they were not based on nationally representative samples of individuals. Our data, primarily derived from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and the Linked Mortality Public-use Files, enable us to overcome those limitations. We investigate the effect of the vintage (year of U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval) of the prescription drugs used by an individual on his or her survival and medical expenditure, controlling for a number of demographic characteristics and indicators and determinants of health status. When we control only for age, sex, and interview year, we estimate that a 1-year increase in drug vintage increases life expectancy by 0.52%. Controlling for a much more extensive set of other attributes (the mean year the person started taking his or her medications, and dummy variables for activity limitations, race, education, family income as a percent of the poverty line, insurance coverage, Census region, body mass index, smoking, and more than 100 medical conditions) has virtually no effect on the estimate of the effect of drug vintage on life expectancy. Between 1996 and 2003, the mean vintage of prescription drugs increased by 6.6 years. This is estimated to have increased the life expectancy of elderly Americans by 0.41–0.47 years. This suggests that not less than two-thirds of the 0.6-year increase in the life expectancy of elderly Americans during 1996–2003 was due to the increase in drug vintage. The 1996–2003 increase in drug vintage is also estimated to have increased annual drug expenditure per elderly American by $207, and annual total medical expenditure per elderly American by $218. This implies that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (cost per life-year gained) of pharmaceutical innovation was about $12,900. This estimate of the cost per life-year gained from the use of newer drugs is a small fraction of leading economists’ estimates of the value of (willingness to pay for) an additional year of life. It is also consistent with estimates from clinical trials.

We use health insurance claims data from 63 large employers to estimate the extent of price shopping for nine common outpatient services in consumer-directed health plans (CDHPs) compared to traditional health plans. The main measures of price shopping include (1) the total price paid on the claim, (2) the share of claims from low- and high-cost providers, and (3) the savings from price shopping relative to choosing prices randomly. All analyses control for individual and zip code level demographics and plan characteristics. We also estimate differences in price shopping within CDHPs depending on expected health care costs and whether the service was bought before or after reaching the deductible. For eight out of nine services analyzed, prices paid by CDHP and traditional plan enrollees did not differ significantly; CDHP enrollees paid 2.3% less for office visits. Similarly, office visits was the only service where CDHP enrollment resulted in a significantly larger share of claims from low-cost providers and greater savings from price shopping relative to traditional plans. There was also no evidence that, within CDHP plans, consumers with lower expected medical expenses exhibited more price shopping or that consumers exhibited more price shopping before reaching the deductible.

Many European countries have recently implemented comprehensive smoking bans to reduce exposure to tobacco smoke in public places and all indoor workplaces. We use a difference-in-differences approach and comparable microdata for a number of European countries to evaluate the impact of national comprehensive smoking bans on workers’ perceived health. Results show that the introduction of comprehensive smoking bans has a significant effect on the probability of both exposure to smoke and work-related respiratory problems. We also highlight unintended effects in terms of mental distress. The impact across countries is shown to vary with the degree of strictness of the bans.

We analyze the problem of incentivizing research and development (R&D) into developing world disease from an economic efficiency perspective. We view the problem as how to best promote R&D into goods with positive external effects in the sense that medicines that directly affect the health of the poor also indirectly affect the utility of the altruistic “rich.” We demonstrate why existing policy proposals – such as price concessions by manufacturers – adversely impact the poor by placing the burden of R&D only on innovators rather than all altruists in the rich world. We offer policy solutions that are based on economic efficiency and therefore rely on a broad sense of how the world values the treatment of developing world disease. We estimate that global altruism toward those with malaria is, at a minimum, valued between $835 million and $2.4 billion annually and for HIV/AIDS, between $9.1 billion and $26.6 billion annually. We argue that future policies toward neglected diseases need to better incorporate how efficient R&D meets the need of this global altruism.

We develop a conceptual framework for estimating the value of personalized medicines. We show that personalizing medicines generates value from two sources. The first is a market-expansion effect by persons who initiate treatment due to reduced pre-treatment uncertainty about the effectiveness or side effects of treatment. The second is a market-contraction effect due to discontinuation of treatment by persons unresponsive to treatment. We apply the conceptual framework to evaluate the value of a predictive test to assess whether patients are at elevated risk for cardiac complications from COX-2 inhibitors. We find that this predictive test would yield an overall value to patients of about $16 billion per year or $1284 per likely patient.

To rein in cost, payers are exploring bundled payment, which aggregates fees for a range of services into a single prospective payment. While under bundled payment providers would have incentives to reduce cost, they might also withhold more expensive care that patients prefer. We explore how bundled payment could be aligned with a benefit design that would encourage patients’ consideration of cost without jeopardizing access to the most expensive treatments. Least-costly-alternative approaches allow patient choice but might deter patients from choosing more expensive care by exposing them to potentially large out-of-pocket payments. A novel “shared-savings supplement” would reward patients for choosing the least costly alternative with a supplemental cash disbursement and thus allow them to share in any cost savings. This cash incentive for the least-costly-alternative allows a reduction of the out-of-pocket payment for the expensive alternative. Thus, patients would still have the option of the more expensive therapy while facing only a modest out-of-pocket cost. Such benefit modifications could be aligned with bundled payment by splitting the responsibility for the incremental cost of more expensive care between patients and their providers.

Do differences in rates of use among managed care and Fee-for-Service Medicare beneficiaries reflect selection bias or successful care management by insurers? I demonstrate a new method to estimate the treatment effect of insurance status on health care utilization. Using clinical information and risk-adjustment techniques on data on acute admission that are unrelated to recent medical care, I create a proxy measure of unobserved health status. I find that positive selection accounts for between one-quarter and one-third of the risk-adjusted differences in rates of hospitalization for ambulatory care sensitive conditions and elective procedures among Medicare managed care and Fee-for-Service enrollees in 7 years of Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases from Arizona, Florida, New Jersey and New York matched to Medicare enrollment data. Beyond selection effects, I find that managed care plans reduce rates of potentially preventable hospitalizations by 12.5 per 1000 enrollees (compared to mean of 46 per 1000) and reduce annual rates of elective admissions by 4 per 1000 enrollees (mean 18.6 per 1000).

This paper studies the relationship between civil war and HIV/AIDS in Burundi at the micro level. The case of Burundi provides interesting grounds of analysis, as seroprevalence rates are heterogeneous across the country, the serological and conflict data for Burundi are of good quality and conclusions can inform HIV/AIDS policies in Burundi and other fragile states. Ordinary least squares and instrumental variable results indicate that there is no empirical relationship between seroprevalence at the general population level and three measures of local conflict intensity within provinces. This evidence could imply that areas that are relatively more conflict affected do not need to be prioritized over others in terms of HIV/AIDS policies. Further research should focus on individual rather than geographical exposure to conflict. There are likely certain groups and individuals at risk in the general population that need special attention after conflict. Furthermore, violence changes societies, in particular gender relations, thereby indirectly feeding and possibly fueling the dynamics of the epidemic.

We develop an empirical method to assess the degree of financial exposure associated with medical care spending among non-elderly US families with employer-sponsored insurance. A key feature of this method is its simplicity – it only requires data on out-of-pocket (OOP) health care spending and total health care spending and does not require detailed knowledge of health insurance benefit design. We apply our method to assess whether families with a chronically ill member face more financial exposure given their level of total spending relative to families with no chronically ill members. We find that the insured chronically ill face more financial exposure than the insured non-chronically ill. Additional analyses suggest that the reason for this additional financial exposure is not that families with a chronically ill member are in different, less generous plans, on average. Rather, families with a chronically ill member have higher spending on certain types of medical services (e.g., pharmaceuticals) that face higher levels of coinsurance. Given recent work on value-based insurance design and coinsurance as an obstacle to medication adherence, our findings suggest that the current design of health plans could jeopardize both the health and the financial well-being of the chronically ill.

Voluntary testing and counseling (VTC) is a popular method for fighting the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The purpose of VTC is to reduce the incidence of the virus in a two-fold manner. First, testing provides access to health care and antiretroviral therapies that diminish the transmission rate of the virus. Second, counseling encourages safer behavior for not only individuals who test HIV-negative and wish to avoid HIV/AIDS infection but also altruistic individuals who test HIV-positive and wish to protect their partners from becoming infected by HIV. Surprisingly, DHS surveys that were conducted in sub-Saharan Africa provide empirical evidence that testing services are underutilized. Moreover, it is rare for both partners in a couple to be tested for HIV. This paper proposes a theoretical model that indicates how misperceptions about the HIV/AIDS virus may explain these puzzles. More specifically, this study demonstrates that individuals who are at risk of HIV infection may act strategically to avoid the cost of testing if they overestimate the risk of HIV transmission or believe that health care is not required if HIV is asymptomatic. The correction of false beliefs and the promotion of self-testing are expected to increase HIV testing rates.