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In this paper the authors analyze the existence of profit shifting between Spain and other OECD and EU countries. Using a sample of 1,169 Spanish subsidiaries owned by foreign OECD and EU parent companies and a sample of 317 EU subsidiaries owned by Spanish parent companies, taken from the AMADEUS Database for the period 2005 to 2014, and a simple tax rate difference as a measure of the tax incentive, the authors obtain a negative effect of corporate income taxes on reported profits. When the tax rate differences between Spain and the foreign countries vary by one percentage point, reported profits vary by approximately 2.7 to 3%. This is consistent with profit shifting activity by corporations and matches the empirical results in the literature. Furthermore, the authors calculate the impact of this activity on Spain’s tax revenues from the sample of Spanish subsidiary companies. They obtain that the tax revenues vary from year to year, depending on the level of taxation of the main investor countries in Spain in comparison to the Spanish tax rate.

The influence of VAT applied to financial services on the size of the financial sector is analyzed empirically. The authors use data from 36 European Union and OECD countries for the period from 1961 to 2012. Dynamic panel data techniques are used, concretely the GMM System. An unbalanced panel is handled. The results allow the authors to support the theoretical analysis that financial VAT has no significant effect on financial sector development. Results are robust to the specifications of the dependent and target variables and to the econometric method applied.

The authors examine the relation between price returns and volatility changes in the Bitcoin market using a daily database denominated in US dollar. The results for the entire period provide no evidence of an asymmetric return-volatility relation in the Bitcoin market. The authors test if there is a difference in the return-volatility relation before and after the price crash of 2013 and show a significant inverse relation between past shocks and volatility before the crash and no significant relation after. This finding shows that, prior to the price crash of December 2013, positive shocks increased the conditional volatility more than negative shocks. This inverted asymmetric reaction of Bitcoin to positive and negative shocks is contrary to what one observes in equities. As leverage effect and volatility feedback do not adequately explain this reaction, the authors propose the safe-haven effect (Baur, Asymmetric volatility in the gold market , 2012). They highlight the benefits of adding Bitcoin to a US equity portfolio, especially in the pre-crash period. Robustness analyses show, among others, a negative relation between the US implied volatility index (VIX) and Bitcoin volatility. Those additional analyses further support the findings and provide useful information for economic actors who are interested in adding Bitcoin to their equity portfolios or are curious about the capabilities of Bitcoin as a financial asset.

This paper presents a simple two-period overlapping generations model that contains environmental and health issues. It investigates an intergenerational conflict between old and young generations as regards two defensive expenditures offsetting the influence of a worsening environment represented here by health care and environmental investment. Workers support environmental maintenance while retirees prefer investing in health care. The authors have shown that an increasing support for private health expenditure leads to a higher level of capital accumulation and leads also to a higher level of environmental quality if the maintenance efforts are higher than consumption externalities.

This paper reviews the results of a number of empirical studies of convergence among the OECD countries and discusses some limitations of these studies. Moreover, the paper tries to deal with these limitations by presenting a new and more appropriate methodology: quantile regressions. The results obtained with this specification support the view that, even among the OECD countries, there are different clusters. The parameter representing the convergence hypothesis, despite being negative in every case, is higher in value and more significant as we advance to higher quantiles. These outcomes reveal a faster convergence between the countries that belong to the upper quantiles. Moreover, 1960–1970 is highlighted as the period in which convergence was more intense.

The authors reexamine the Schmalensee effect from a dynamic perspective. Schmalsensee’s argument suggesting that high quality can be signaled by high prices is based on the assumption that higher quality necessarily incurs higher production cost. In this paper, the authors argue that firms producing high-quality products have a stronger incentive to lower the marginal cost of production cost because they can then sell larger quantities than low-quality firms can. If this dynamic effect is large enough, then the Schmalensee effect degenerates and, thus, low prices signal high quality. This result is different from the Nelson effect relying on the assumption that only the high-quality product can generate repeat purchase, because the result is valid even if low-quality products can also be purchased repeatedly. The authors characterize a separating equilibrium in which a highquality monopolist invests more to reduce cost and, as a result, charges a lower price. Separation is possible due to a difference in quantities sold in the second period across qualities.

The authors analyse 149 newly compiled monthly time series on financial market stress conditions in the euro area. With the aid of a factor model they find different sources of financial stress that are important for selecting and preparing the appropriate policy response. The existence of a “Periphery Banking Crisis” factor, a “Stress” factor and a “Yield Curve” factor seems to explain the bulk of volatility in recent euro area financial sector data. Moreover, by a real-time forecasting exercise, the authors show that including additional factors—that reflect financial sector conditions—improves forecasts of economic activity at short horizons.

Parliament is the place where politicians make laws to set the policy direction of countries. Non-involvement of different voices such as gender, race and ethnicity in policy decisions may create an inequality in policy-making. Regarding gender, previous literature suggests that women and men may have different policy prefer- ences and women give more priority to policies related to their traditional roles as care givers to children in the family. Public spending on family allowances is one of the economic policies that plays an important role in helping families for childcare. This paper contributes to the literature by analyzing the relationship between female political representation and public spending on family allowances within a perspective of critical-mass framework.

Plummeting commodity prices, China’s economic slowdown and rebalancing, and global financial market turbulence have recently raised concerns about their effects on African economies. This paper investigates whether, and to what extent, these intertwined shocks spillover into the Tanzanian economy. The author finds that a 1 percentage point (ppts) drop in China’s investment growth is associated with a decline in Tanzania’s export growth of roughly 0.60 ppts. A 1 percent fall in commodity prices leads to 0.65 percent lower exports value. The results suggest that a hard landing of the Chinese economy to its ‘new normal’ would doubtless send shock waves through the Tanzanian economy by further driving down commodity demand and prices as well as lowering development finance. In contrast, financial market volatility has a fairly negligible impact on economic growth. The main results stand up well to a wide-array of robustness checks.

This paper focuses on gains from trade due to rising within-firm productivity in presence of services exporting. The complementarity between exporting and investing in productivity enhancements is investigated by using descriptive regressions using rich, firm-level data for the period 2003–2011 for Turkey. The authors use three productivity measures for robustness purposes. The results show that firms that export both goods and services throughout the sample have higher productivity compared to all other firms in the sample. Another important result of the paper is related to the firms that switch from being goods exporters to goods and services exporters, which exhibit higher productivity than firms that export only goods or firms that switch from services exporting to exporting both goods and services. Finally, within-firm gains from trade as measured by the productivity growth of firms is insensitive to the services exporting status. More importantly, the authors observe no effect of any of export status of firms considered in this paper on their productivity growth.

This paper investigates the implications for the nominal exchange rate of a Border Tax Adjustment (BTA) when there is BTA neutrality. A border tax adjustment is a change from an origin-based system of taxation, that taxes exports but exempts imports to a destination-based system that taxes imports but exempts exports. Both indirect taxes (e.g. a VAT) and direct taxes (e.g. a cash-flow corporate profit tax) can be subject to a BTA. In the US, a BTA for the corporate profit tax is under discussion. There is BTA neutrality when the real equilibrium, including measures of profitability and competitiveness, of an open economy is unchanged when it moves from an origin-based to a destinationbased tax. The conventional wisdom on the exchange rate implications of a neutral BTA is that the currency of the country implementing the BTA will strengthen (appreciate) by a percentage equal to the VAT or CPT tax rate. The main insight of this note is that this ‘appreciation presumption’ is not robust, even when all conditions for full BTA neutrality are satisfied. Indeed, plausible alternative assumptions about constancy (or stickiness) of nominal prices support a weakening (depreciation) of the currency by the same percentage as the tax rate. On the basis on the very patchy available empirical information, it is not possible to take a view with any degree of confidence on the implications of a BTA for the nominal exchange rate, even if full BTA neutrality prevailed. Whether BTA neutrality itself is a feature of the real world is also a disputed empirical issue. Therefore, buyer (or seller) beware.

This paper presents some new stochastic dominance (SD) criteria for ranking transformations on a random variable, which is the first time that this is done for transformations under the discrete framework. By using the expected utility theory, the authors first propose a sufficient condition for general transformations by first degree SD (FSD), and further develop it into the necessary and sufficient condition for monotonic transformations. For the second degree SD (SSD) case, they divide the monotonic transformations into increasing and decreasing categories, and further derive their necessary and sufficient conditions, respectively. For two different discrete random variables with the same possible states, the authors obtain the sufficient and necessary conditions for FSD and SSD, respectively. The new SD criteria have the following features: each FSD condition is represented by the transformation functions and each SSD condition is characterized by the transformation functions and the probability distributions of the random variable. This is different from the classical SD approach where FSD and SSD conditions are described by cumulative distribution functions. Finally, a numerical example is provided to show the effectiveness of the new SD criteria.

Parametric regression models are often not flexible enough to capture the true relationships as they tend to rely on arbitrary identification assumptions. Using the UK Labor Force Survey, the authors estimate the causal effect of national minimum wage (NMW) increases on the probability of job entry and job exit by means of a non-parametric Bayesian modelling approach known as Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). The application of this methodology has the important advantage that it does not require ad-hoc assumptions about model fitting, number of covariates and how they interact. They find that the NMW exerts a positive and significant impact on both the probability of job entry and job exit. Although the magnitude of the effect on job entry is higher, the overall effect of NMW is ambiguous as there are many more employed workers. The causal effect of NMW is higher for young workers and in periods of high unemployment and they have a stronger impact on job entry decisions. No significant interactions were found with gender and qualifications.

What effect does rising income inequality have on longevity in advanced developed economies? This paper focuses on the effect of income inequality on mortality rates for men and women in a subset of OECD countries over nearly six decades from 1950–2008. Using adult mortality rates at aged sixty-five as the outcome measure of mortality, the latest available data on inverted Pareto-Lorenz coefficient as a measure of income inequality, the authors conduct a range of analysis to investigate the relationship. The findings show that income inequality has a negative effect on mortality rates for both men and women, that is, an increase in income inequality at the top of the distribution does not appear to have a detrimental effect on adult mortality rates in the population of advanced developed countries. For every one unit increase in income inequality, female mortality rates decreased by 0.024 percentage points (p<=0.001) and male mortality rates decreased by 0.052 percentage points (p<=0.001). Dynamic OLS results show that for every one unit increase in income inequality, female mortality rates decreased by 0.032 percentage points (p<=0.01) and male mortality rates decreased by 0.067 percentage points (p<=0.001). The findings remain robust to changes in methodology and the inclusion of control variables including GDP, population and the health capital index.

In a small open developing country context, the author considers a three-sector general equilibrium framework and tries to find out the effects of foreign capital inflow on welfare of the country. Comparative-static results show that foreign capital inflow widens the skilledunskilled wage gap under some reasonable conditions, although it causes an expansion of the foreign enclave and the agricultural sector and contraction of the domestic manufacturing sector. Taking sector specific foreign capital, the authors find that foreign direct investment is beneficial in a free market small open economy in the absence of tariff.

This paper uses hysteresis to develop the concept of policy lock-in and lock-out. Policy changes may near-irrevocably change the economy’s structure, thereby changing the distribution of wealth, income and power. That may lock-in policy by changing the political equilibrium. Exit costs that block policy reversals also cause lock-in. Conventional thinking treats policy as a dial which is adjusted according to the economy’s state. Policy lock-in questions the dial formulation and raises new issues for optimal policy design. It also offers insights into economic and political crisis theory. Policy lock-in is illustrated with examples that include tax policy, government spending, the euro, globalization, and the neoliberal policy experiment.

This paper investigates the impacts of Export-platform foreign direct investment on the production of upstream industries through backward linkages. First, in a threecountry model, these impacts are explained through a competition effect and a demand effect. Otherwise, such production is also affected by third country size, local content requirement, and power of trade agreements between the host and the third countries. Second, in the case of the Vietnamese supporting industries between 2000 and 2012, Export-platform FDI generates a negative effect. Moreover, local content requirement, and trade agreements between Vietnam and other countries positively impacts the production level of these industries whereas third countries size has an ambiguous impact.

This paper highlights the relationship between foreign exchange rate fluctuations and firms’ export market dynamics using a Chinese firm-level production data and a firm-level trade data over the period of 2000–2006. This study adopts a discrete-time survival model in our empirical investigation and further executes several extensions and robustness checks to the baseline results. The main results of the paper can be summarized as follows: First, an exchange rate appreciation increases the likelihood of export market exit and decreases the probability of export market entry. Second, high productivity firms are less likely to exit from export markets and more likely to enter export markets in the period of exchange rate appreciation. Third, exchange rate appreciation decreases the likelihood of export market entering and increases the likelihood of export market exiting more for private-owned firms, young firms and non-eastern firms. Finally, other sources of heterogeneity, such as extensive margins, import demand elasticity, different destinations, U.S. dollar peg, and the liberalization of trading rights is also important to the effects of exchange rate changes.

This paper presents an analysis of the crucial relationship between innovation, productivity, and export in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). The primary aims of this study are to evaluate the role of innovation in the premium export and test the hypothesis of firm conscious self-selection on willingness to export. To this end, the authors used their database of SMEs, obtained from the survey conducted in the IDEIS project, which provides highly pertinent information on innovation and export areas. Based on the aforementioned database, the authors evaluate apparent premium of exportation and innovation. In addition, they demonstrate the effectiveness of the export premium for high exportation firms that implement process and organization innovations. Finally, the authors analyse the effect of conscious self-selection from the export process that transforms an intention to export into the capacity to export in short term. The conscious self-selection to export is revealed by simultaneously endogeneizing productivity and innovation output based on recursive non-linear model.

This article examines the income-energy-SO 2 emissions nexus by taking a corruption variable into account. To that end, the panel cointegration methods are applied to 29 Chinese provinces over 1999–2012. The authors´ empirical evidence shows that an increase in the number of anti-corruption cases tends to drive down SO 2 emissions in China. It is also found that income growth appears to have a beneficial effect on decreasing SO 2 emissions over the past two decades. Finally, energy consumption is found to increase SO 2 emissions.

The main objective of this work is to study the effects that supply and demand factors have on waiting lists. With this aim in mind, the authors discuss a model which explains the factors that can affect the production of healthcare, demand for healthcare, and finally, the inequalities between healthcare supply and demand. This analysis proves that, due to imbalances between supply and demand, there is an excess of demand that is equal to waiting lists. This demand excess is called the waiting list function. Hence, the second part of this paper develops an empirical analysis which estimates the function for the waiting lists of Spanish Public Hospitals for the period 1996–2009. As a result of the estimation, the supply and demand factors influencing waiting lists, as well as their evolution, are determined and studied. An imbalance between supply and demand reduces the supply and increases demand resulting in the amount traded by the market being less than potential demand.

The existing literature suggests that economic institutions determine the allocation of resources for economic growth. As an important counterexample, although China has one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, its legal and financial systems are underdeveloped. With evidence from China, the author confirms that government intervention positively and causally determines firms’ access to credit. The author further provides evidence that government intervention enables firms’ profit through facilitating access to credit. This evidence confirms that the mechanism of government intervention allows firms’ access to credit and then enables the firms to obtain relatively large profits. Ultimately, this paper reveals that, in the absence of effective economic institutions, government intervention determines firms’ access to credit.

There is a broad theoretical consensus on the effects of transfers (desired incentive impacts and induced adverse effects). But, as the literature review shows, there is not an accepted methodology for the empirical evaluation of these effects. The authors suggest a simple but rigorous empirical approach to quantify the catalytic effect of conditioned transfers for investment and their asymmetric impact across regions in Spain. To identify this behaviour, they have applied different empirical approaches with frontier techniques that let them consider the frontier as a proxy for potential investment. The results show that the conditioned transfers received by the regions from higher levels of government have a stimulus effect for investments, especially in the poor regions. The authors identify several factors explaining this unbalanced catalytic effect: the political cost of tax collection, political factors, inadequate management of debt, and other variables such as the level of economic development, population density, and the economic cycle.

Fiscal adjustments consisting of spending cuts or tax increases are generally presented as the unavoidable way for achieving public finance sustainability in the long term. However, this view of fiscal consolidation processes is limited as it leaves out other aspects related to public sector performance which are relevant not only from the macroeconomic but also from the microeconomic perspective. This paper models Public Sector Performance (PSP) by proposing a theoretical framework that integrates the conventional methodology for measuring its productive efficiency and the monetary assessment of social welfare changes linked to public policy reforms. Two equivalent measures of social welfare change generated by improving (or worsening) productive efficiency are deduced using duality theory. The first is obtained from the cost function, while the second arises directly from the production function. The results reveal that taking advantage of budgetary savings obtained from this approach constitutes a valuable tool for designing welfareenhancing fiscal consolidation packages, meanwhile promoting sound fiscal balances and growth prospects over the long term.

The ‘Five Presidents Report’ cited in the title acknowledges that an important driver of the European economic crisis has been the faulty original design of the Monetary Union, and that substantial steps are urgently needed towards the creation of truly supranational institutions. Yet, economists tend to neglect that however compelling economic analyses may be, the stumbling block on the way of the reform of the Monetary Union is political will, and that in democracies the ultimate source of political will comes from electors. In this paper, first of all the authors wish to bring to the economists’ attention some recent analyses of citizens’ attitudes towards Europe from political science. Then, by cross-referencing the results of the 2014 elections of the European Parliament with Eurobarometer opinion polls eliciting judgements for the EU vis-à-vis home countries and an indicator of economic pain, the authors show the presence of a geo-economicpolitical cleavage across four groups of countries. This is more complex, and perhaps worse, than the simplistic divide between ‘North’ and ‘South’ or ‘Core’ and ‘Periphery’. The main implication is that the EU experiences a stalemate between ‘more Europe vs. less Europe’ at the level of peoples, which seriously undermines support for further integration ‘from below’.

The influential piracy paper by Professors Oberholzer-Gee and Strumpf, although mainly based on proprietary data, contained an “important complement” to the main results, consisting of four “quasi-experiments” using publicly available data. This replication examines all of these quasi-experiments by using identical data and statistical methods where possible, as well as sometimes extending or augmenting the data or methods. This study concludes that the quasi-experiments performed by OS each contain important errors, oversights or inconsistencies that most often, but not completely, overturn the results claimed in the original OS article.

The G20 can ensure a secure, resilient, sustainable and responsible digital economy, especially in the financial sector, by removing vulnerabilities in Internet infrastructure, encouraging crossborder cooperation, providing guidance to telecommunications regulators and implementing norms regarding cyber-attacks.

Tensions between national democratic accountability and transnational challenges undermine trust and collective action. Asymmetry between an integrated global economy, fragmented global community, and defective global polity, causes social turbulence. Facing technological disruption, we need a new order to address inequality; transform education; and build social capital. Diplomatic exchanges will not suffice, but the Paris Agreement and Agenda 2030 were enabled by bottom-up deliberations. The author proposes a UN conference of states to decide how to balance environmental sustainability, economic development and human security, after consultations on national proposals between policymakers, business and civil society, on principles, underlying values and legal norms.

The authors call on G20 leaders to extend more predictable and substantial support to lowand- middle-income countries that host refugees, in recognition of the global public good that these countries provide. Together with other high-income countries, G20 countries should fully cover the cost of providing for the basic and social needs of refugees. They should also help to expand public services and infrastructure for refugees as well as resident populations. Such international support for the economic integration and social inclusion of refugees will be most effective if host countries grant refugees a firm legal status with access to employment and entrepreneurship.

The roles of non-governmental or civil society organizations have become more complex, especially in the context of changing relationships with nation states and the international community. In many instances, state-civil society relations have worsened, leading experts to speak of a “shrinking space” for civil society nationally as well as internationally. The author proposes to initiate a process for the establishment of an independent high-level commission of eminent persons (i) to examine the changing policy environment for civil society organizations in many countries as well as internationally, (ii) to review the reasons behind the shrinking space civil society encounters in some parts of the world and its steady development in others, and (iii) to make concrete proposals for how the state and the international system on the one hand and civil society on the other hand can relate in productive ways in national and multilateral contexts.

To achieve food security for all, new resource policies for sustainable land and water use are needed. Land, water and energy need to be considered jointly in policies, not in isolation. United Nations, G20 countries’ policy makers, corporate and civil society actors, and those of other countries should act in coordinated fashion in the following four policy areas on which specific proposals are made in this policy paper: 1) focusing land, and water resource policies on human wellbeing, 2) investing in and sharing water, agricultural and energy innovations, 3) making wider use of digital opportunities for sustainable agriculture, and 4) re-designing global governance of agriculture and food.

The authors propose a policy package of low-carbon growth stimulation through a steep increase in sustainable infrastructure, mobilizing sustainable finance, and adoption of carbon pricing to simultaneously achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals.

Climate policies, including removing fossil fuel subsidies or imposing carbon prices, can be designed in a way that is both efficient in addressing climate change and results in a fair distribution of the associated costs.

Progress toward food and nutrition security (FNS) needs to be sharply accelerated in order to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal for ending hunger and malnutrition, especially in rural areas. The G20 should target interventions and investment opportunities to maximize impact on people and transformation of rural areas. Currently, few G20 countries map investments, technical assistance, capacity building and policy improvement in a data-driven way. Such tracking of needs, policies, and resources could include G20 countries’ domestic efforts alongside countries they support with development assistance. The G20 could develop such a methodology to identify countries and interventions where additional resources could have a lasting impact. They could then systematically track and streamline FNS actions taken across international organizations and initiatives to help ensure the SDG is achieved.

The authors explore the link between the systems approach to sustainability and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which were formally adopted by the UN in 2015. The systems approach depicts sustainable development as the intersection of the goals attributed to three interlinked systems: environmental (or ecological), economic and social. The authors illustrate how each of the 17 SDGs can be characterized as a goal primarily attributed either to the environmental, economic or social system, and as suggested by the systems approach, there may be important tradeoffs in attempting to attain all these goals simultaneously. By adopting standard methods of the theory of choice and welfare under imposed quantities, the authors show that is possible to measure the welfare effects of an increase in the indicator level for one SDG by identifying the tradeoffs that occur with achieving another goal. They present a quantitative assessment of current progress and tradeoffs among the 17 SDGs, using a representative indicator for each goal. They then conduct a preliminary welfare analysis of these tradeoffs through employing the approach developed in this paper. Although this analysis focuses on the potential tradeoffs among SDGs, the approach could also be applied to show complementarities, or “winwins”, in simultaneous progress among two or more SDGs. Such an analysis can help in the design of appropriate policy interventions to achieve specific SDGs, minimizing the potentially negative knock-on effects on some goals whilst capitalizing on the positive win-win impacts on other SDGs.