Contents

Chapters in this book

1. Frontmatter i
2. Contents vii
3. Acknowledgments ix
4. Introduction 1
5. 1. Threats: A Theoretical Framework 18
6. 2. The Provisional IRA: A Full Spectrum of Threats 29
7. 3. ETA and the Tamil Tigers: Comparable Threats for Social Control and Negotiation; Contrasting Threats for Legitimacy, Disruption, and Advantage 62
8. 4. The MRTA and the Shining Path: Common Enemy; Virtually No Threat in Common 94
9. 5. The Taliban, ISIL, and Boko Haram: Comparable Threats for Social Control; Contrasting Threats for Legitimacy, Negotiation, Aggrandizement, and Advantage 115
10. 6. Quantitative Analysis: When to Expect Truthful Warnings 145
11. Conclusion 166
12. Appendix 181
13. Notes 217
14. Bibliography 265
15. Index 281