Case studies for evaluating conditional probabilities of external explosions
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J. Hauschild
Abstract
In recent years international experience has shown that external hazards can be safety significant contributors to the risk for nuclear power plants because such hazards have the potential to reduce simultaneously the level of redundancy by damaging redundant systems. Therefore, effective protections against external hazards have to be accurately assessed applying deterministic, probabilistic or combined methodologies. With respect to the external hazard “explosion” – two different types of risky situations for the plant under consideration have to be investigated: the explosive material is available as a stationary source in the neighbourhood of the plant or the explosive material is mobile (i. e. by ships, rails or trucks). In the latter case, the situation changes with the varying distances. Moreover, the transport way could be a straight line or a bent which also has to be addressed in the calculations. Methods which can be applied to evaluate the probability of occurrence of an external explosion event are, e. g., fault tree analyses, event tree analyses and Monte Carlo simulations. Two case studies applying Monte Carlo simulations for assessing the probability of occurrence of external explosion events, given an accident with creation of an explosive gas cloud, are presented.
Kurzfassung
Die internationale Erfahrung in den letzten Jahren hat gezeigt, dass externe Ereignisse erheblich zum Risiko für Kernkraftwerke beitragen können, da solche Ereignisse das Potenzial haben, gleichzeitig mehrere redundante Systeme zu schädigen. Deshalb müssen wirksame Schutzmechanismen gegen äußere Ereignisse mit Hilfe deterministischer, probabilistischer oder kombinierter Methoden genau beurteilt werden. Werden externe Explosionsereignisse betrachtet, so sind zwei unterschiedliche Typen von riskanten Situationen für die betrachtete Anlage zu untersuchen: das explosive Material ist als stationäre Quelle in der Umgebung der Anlage vorhanden oder das explosive Material ist mobil vorhanden (d. h. auf Schiffen, Bahn oder LKW). Im letzteren Fall verändert sich die Lage mit den unterschiedlichen Abständen. Darüber hinaus könnte die Transportstrecke eine gerade Linie sein oder gebogen; dies muss ebenfalls in die Berechnungen einfließen. Methoden, um die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Auftretens einer externen Explosion zu beurteilen, sind z. B. Fehlerbaumanalysen, Ereignisbaumanalysen und Monte-Carlo-Simulationen. Zwei Fallstudien, bei denen für die Beurteilung der Wahrscheinlichkeit des Auftretens externer Explosionsereignisse Monte-Carlo-Simulationen eingesetzt wurden, werden vorgestellt.
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© 2013, Carl Hanser Verlag, München
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Contents/Inhalt
- Contents
- Summaries/Kurzfassungen
- Summaries
- Editorial
- External hazards – new threats to be assessed?
- Technical Contributions/Fachbeiträge
- External hazards – in focus after the Fukushima accident
- Reassessment of external events in view of the Fukushima accident
- On-site power system reliability of a nuclear power plant after the earthquake
- How to construct a seismic risk model?
- Seismic fragility of a reinforced concrete structure
- Probabilistic safety analysis of external floods – method and application
- Frequency of damage by external explosion hazards based on geographical information
- Case studies for evaluating conditional probabilities of external explosions
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Contents/Inhalt
- Contents
- Summaries/Kurzfassungen
- Summaries
- Editorial
- External hazards – new threats to be assessed?
- Technical Contributions/Fachbeiträge
- External hazards – in focus after the Fukushima accident
- Reassessment of external events in view of the Fukushima accident
- On-site power system reliability of a nuclear power plant after the earthquake
- How to construct a seismic risk model?
- Seismic fragility of a reinforced concrete structure
- Probabilistic safety analysis of external floods – method and application
- Frequency of damage by external explosion hazards based on geographical information
- Case studies for evaluating conditional probabilities of external explosions
