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Computing the Probability of Winning a Competition with an Application to Horse Races
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Alvaro Rodriguez
Published/Copyright:
July 19, 2011
We use the theoretical framework of “tournament theory” to obtain a statistical foundation for the most popular contest function used in the economics literature. We show that once one solves the issue of measuring “output” as it appears in tournament theory, one can obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in the contest function based on the past performance of the competitors. The findings are used to predict the odds of winning a horse race and the results compared with the odds generated by the actual wagers.
Published Online: 2011-7-19
©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston
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- Match Analysis of Elite Ice Sledge Hockey in Paralympics 2010
- And After That, Who Knows?: Detailing the Marginal Accuracy of Weekly College Football Polls
- On Estimating the Ability of NBA Players
- The Quarterback Prediction Problem: Forecasting the Performance of College Quarterbacks Selected in the NFL Draft
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