Forming Voting Blocs and Coalitions as a Prisoner's Dilemma: A Possible Theoretical Explanation for Political Instability
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Andrew Gelman
Individuals in a committee or election can increase their voting power by forming coalitions. This behavior is shown here to yield a prisoner's dilemma, in which a subset of voters can increase their power, while reducing average voting power for the electorate as a whole. This is an unusual form of the prisoner's dilemma in that cooperation is the selfish act that hurts the larger group. Under a simple model, the privately optimal coalition size is approximately 1.4 times the square root of the number of voters. When voters' preferences are allowed to differ, coalitions form only if voters are approximately politically balanced. We propose a dynamic view of coalitions, in which groups of voters choose of their own free will to form and disband coalitions, in a continuing struggle to maintain their voting power. This is potentially an endogenous mechanism for political instability, even in a world where individuals' (probabilistic) preferences are fixed and known.
©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston
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Articles in the same Issue
- Contributions Article
- Suggested Subsidies are Sub-optimal Unless Combined with an Output Tax
- War or Peace
- Selective Information Provision and Special Interest Influence: The Case of Trade Policy
- Price Discrimination via Proprietary Aftermarkets
- The Spite Motive and Equilibrium Behavior in Auctions
- Optimal Liability for Libel
- Aggregation of Non Stationary Demand Systems
- The Savings Impact of College Financial Aid
- A Theory of Utilization Review
- Cigarette Demand, Structural Change, and Advertising Bans: International Evidence, 1970-1995
- Piracy and the Legitimate Demand for Recorded Music
- Oligopoly Deregulation and the Taxation of Commodities
- Forming Voting Blocs and Coalitions as a Prisoner's Dilemma: A Possible Theoretical Explanation for Political Instability
- Ethnicity and Networks in African Trade
- Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements: An Empirical Analysis
