How Does the New Keynesian Monetary Model Fit in the U.S. and the Eurozone? An Indirect Inference Approach
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Ramón María-Dolores
This paper estimates a standard version of the New Keynesian monetary (NKM) model under alternative specifications of the monetary policy rule using U.S. and Eurozone data. The estimation procedure implemented is a classical method based on the indirect inference principle. An unrestricted VAR is considered as the auxiliary model. On the one hand, the estimation method proposed overcomes some of the shortcomings of using a structural VAR as the auxiliary model in order to identify the impulse response that defines the minimum distance estimator implemented in the literature. On the other hand, by following a classical approach we can further assess the estimation results found in recent papers that follow a maximum-likelihood Bayesian approach. The estimation results show that some structural parameter estimates are quite sensitive to the specification of monetary policy. Moreover, the estimation results in the U.S. show that the fit of the NKM under an optimal monetary plan is much worse than the fit of the NKM model assuming a forward-looking Taylor rule. We also find, in contrast to the literature, evidence of indeterminacy under the best fitting monetary policy rule under the Greenspan era. In contrast to the U.S. case,in the Eurozone the best fit is obtained assuming a backward-looking Taylor rule and determinacy holds, but the improvement is rather small with respect to assuming either a forward-looking Taylor rule or an optimal plan.
©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston
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Articles in the same Issue
- Topics Article
- Counter-Cyclical and Counter-Inflation Monetary Policy Rules and Comovement Properties of Money Growth
- Hicks Neutral Technical Change Revisited: CES Production Function and Information of General Order
- R&D Subsidies and the Surplus Appropriability Problem
- Literacy and Growth
- The Fed's Preference for Policy Rate Smoothing: Overestimation Due to Misspecification?
- Inflation Targeting in Western Europe
- On the Political Economy of Housing's Tax Status
- Rating Agencies and Sovereign Debt Rollover
- How Does the New Keynesian Monetary Model Fit in the U.S. and the Eurozone? An Indirect Inference Approach
- Fertility Choice and Semi-Endogenous Growth: Where Becker Meets Jones
- Equilibrium Wage Dispersion: An Example
- Exchange Rate Regimes, Specialization and Trade Volume
- A Refinement in the Specification of Empirical Macroeconomic Models as an Extension to the EBA Procedure
- Education, Growth, and Redistribution in the Presence of Capital Flight
- Measuring the Dissemination of Volatility across Levels of Development
