Abstract
The current rate of discovery of new boron minerals (65 species or potential species described from 2008 to 2017) is higher than at any prior 10 year period, implying that rates of B mineral discovery could increase further with no obvious limit to boron mineral diversity in Earth’s crust. In contrast, large number of rare events (LNRE) models calculated from the 295 species of B minerals discovered through 2017 give a total predicted B mineral endowment in Earth’s crust of 459 ±65.5 and 523 species, using a finite Zipf-Mandelbrot (fZM) model and Sichel’s generalized inverse Gauss-Poisson model (GIGP), respectively, i.e., there is a very real predicted limit of no more than ~500 species. As cautioned by Hazen, Hystad, and their co-authors, LNRE modeling presumes no changes in how minerals are discovered from the beginning of mineral discoveries in the late 18th century to early 2017. However this condition is clearly not the case, and thus changes could explain the discrepant indications. The most important changes are (1) the advent of the electron microprobe, which became widely used for chemical analysis of B minerals in 1978; (2) technological advances in single-crystal X-ray diffractrometry, (3) technological advances in electron microscopy including advent of electron backscattered diffraction; (4) advent of micro-Raman spectroscopy; and (5) changes in mineralogical nomenclatures, particularly of the tourmaline supergroup. Changes 1 to 4 are expected to reduce the size of the mineral grains that can be studied, thereby increasing the number of species accessible to study. Furthermore, should species have a fractal distribution (i.e., diversity is independent of scale) examination of increasingly smaller grains will turn up an even larger number of species. To evaluate the impact of these changes on the LNRE modeling, we modeled the 146 B minerals discovered up through 1978, which was selected as the cutoff because of (1) the important role played subsequently by the electron microprobe and (2) the number of species was 50% of the current number. This modeling gave 306 (fZM) and 359 (GIGP) for total species, i.e., the access to smaller grains afforded by advanced analytical instrumentation has resulted in an increased estimate of total endowment by 50% from 1978, whether the fZM or GIGP distribution is applied. We doubt that the ~500 B species estimate is the end of the story, as we expect there will be further technological advances in the future. A more realistic finale might come when we reach the natural limit imposed by the minimum number of unit cells needed for new mineral to be viable, and thus LNRE modeling might yet show that Earth’s total endowment of B minerals is finite.
A review of past patterns of discovery of new boron minerals, which can inform us what to expect in future discoveries, reveal that only 19% of B minerals were synthesized prior to discovery. We conclude that synthetic compounds are not a particularly promising source of potential new B minerals. In contrast, 22% of B minerals were discovered prior to synthesis and 29% have unique structures, i.e., they have no synthetic analogs and are not isostructural with a known mineral. Accordingly, 41% of B minerals could not be predicted, and we conclude that the realm of as yet undiscovered B minerals holds a significant number of surprises.
Acknowledgments
The Interlibrary Loan service at the Fogler Library, University of Maine, Merri Wolf and Shaun Hardy at the Carnegie Institution for Science, and the IMA Database of Mineral Properties maintained by the RRUFF Project at the University of Arizona (Lafuente et al. 2015) provided access to the literature essential for carrying out this research. Anastasia Chernyatieva assisted in providing literature from the Library of Russian Academy of Sciences in St. Petersburg.
The following individuals are thanked for their contribution of critical information not in the literature: Thomas Armbruster for assistance in translating critical German text and for processing and interpreting the structural data on the reported substitution of carbon for boron in warwickite from China; Peter Burns for information on trembathite; Christian Chopin for excerpts from Ph.D. thesis by Alain Ragu; Nikita Chukanov for information on minerals listed in Chukanov (2014) and other papers; Marco Ciriotti for information on Italian type minerals and for translations of critical Italian text; Mark Cooper and Frank Hawthorne for permission to cite size of folvikite crystals prior to publication; Francesco Demartin for information on synthetic knasibfite; Larissa Dobrzhinetskaya for permission to publish a bright-field image of qingsongite; Robert T. Downs for permission to publish photographs from the RRUFF project; Robert T. Downs and Marcus Origlieri for X-ray diffraction and compositional data on axinite-(Mn) and muscovite from Arizona; Andreas Ertl for information on the size of type dravite and on uvite reported from Carinthia, Austria; Henrik Friis for information on the reported occurrence of stillwellite-(Ce) in the Ilímaussaq complex, Greenland; Irina Galuskina and Evgeny Galuskin for information on localities in Russia; Joshua J. Golden for processing data from mindat.org; Monika Haring and Andrew McDonald for permission to publish their photograph of nolzeite; Cahit Helvaci for information on minerals found in Turkey; László Horváth for information on searlesite from Mont Saint-Hilaire; Anthony Kampf for an estimate of the size of “bakerite” in type material; Vladimir Karpenko for information on searlesite from Darai Pioz; Roy Kristiansen and Alf Olav Larsen for information on warwickite, fluor-liddicoatite, tritomite-(Ce) in Norway; Ştefan Marincea for information on homilite and various localities in Romania; Andrew McDonald for information on the situations of UK39and UK53 at Mont Saint-Hilaire; Ritsuro Miyawaki for information and translations from the Japanese concerning occurrences of hellandite-(Y) and stillwellite-(Ce) in Japan; Koichi Momma and Ritsuro Miyawaki for information on the size of imayoshiite described by Nishio-Hamane et al. (2015); Shaunna Morrison for assistance with LNRE calculations; Milan Novák for information on occurrences in the Czech Republic; Marco Pasero for data on numbers of new minerals overall; Igor Pekov for information on the occurrences of numerous boron minerals in the former USSR; Federico Pezzotta for information on localities in Italy; Dingyi Qian for translations of numerous critical Chinese texts; Won Joon Song for translation from Korean of Lee (1966) on borcarite from Holdong, North Korea and for information on other mineral occurrences in North Korea; Rainer Thomas for information on borates as daughter crystals; and Thomas Wiztke for information on Pöhla (Saxony) nordenskiöldine occurrence.
We are particularly grateful to Priscilla C. Grew for fruitful discussions, during which she suggested we do LNRE modeling of minerals discovered before use of the electron microprobe that proved so critical for evaluating the electron microprobe’s impact and to Peter Koons for suggesting B mineral diversity could be fractal.
We thank reviewers Adam Pieczka and Andrey Bulakh and Associate Editor Fernando Colombo for their constructive comments that added a new perspective, especially on the role of technological advances in instrumentation.
S.V.K. was supported in this work by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant 16-05-00293). R.M.H.’s studies in mineral ecology are supported in part by the Deep Carbon Observatory, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the W.M. Keck Foundation, a private foundation, and the Carnegie Institution for Science.
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Articles in the same Issue
- How many boron minerals occur in Earth’s upper crust?
- Outlooks in Earth and Planetary Materials
- Network analysis of mineralogical systems
- Special collection: From magmas to ore deposits
- Geochemistry of the Cretaceous Kaskanak Batholith and genesis of the Pebble porphyry Cu-Au-Mo deposit, Southwest Alaska
- Special collection: From magmas to ore deposits
- Physicochemical controls on bismuth mineralization: An example from Moutoulas, Serifos Island, Cyclades, Greece
- Special collection: Earth analogs for martian geological materials and processes
- Geochemistry and mineralogy of a saprolite developed on Columbia River Basalt: Secondary clay formation, element leaching, and mass balance during weathering
- Special collection: Apatite: A common mineral, uncommonly versatile
- An ab-initio study of the energetics and geometry of sulfide, sulfite, and sulfate incorporation into apatite: The thermodynamic basis for using this system as an oxybarometer
- Special collection: Dynamics of magmatic processes
- The role of modifier cations in network cation coordination increases with pressure in aluminosilicate glasses and melts from 1 to 3 GPa
- Nitrides and carbonitrides from the lowermost mantle and their importance in the search for Earth’s “lost” nitrogen
- Accounting for the species-dependence of the 3500 cm−1 H2Ot infrared molar absorptivity coefficient: Implications for hydrated volcanic glasses
- A finite strain approach to thermal expansivity’s pressure dependence
- Ilmenite breakdown and rutile-titanite stability in metagranitoids: Natural observations and experimental results
- Single-crystal equations of state of magnesiowüstite at high pressures
- Analysis of erionites from volcaniclastic sedimentary rocks and possible implications for toxicological research
- Reconstructive phase transitions induced by temperature in gmelinite-Na zeolite
- Smoking gun for thallium geochemistry in volcanic arcs: Nataliyamalikite, TlI, a new thallium mineral from an active fumarole at Avacha Volcano, Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia
- How to facet gem-quality chrysoberyl: Clues from the relationship between color and pleochroism, with spectroscopic analysis and colorimetric parameters
- Letter
- Mn-Fe systematics in major planetary body reservoirs in the solar system and the positioning of the Angrite Parent Body: A crystal-chemical perspective
- Letter
- Dolomite-IV: Candidate structure for a carbonate in the Earth’s lower mantle
- Book Review
- Book Review
Articles in the same Issue
- How many boron minerals occur in Earth’s upper crust?
- Outlooks in Earth and Planetary Materials
- Network analysis of mineralogical systems
- Special collection: From magmas to ore deposits
- Geochemistry of the Cretaceous Kaskanak Batholith and genesis of the Pebble porphyry Cu-Au-Mo deposit, Southwest Alaska
- Special collection: From magmas to ore deposits
- Physicochemical controls on bismuth mineralization: An example from Moutoulas, Serifos Island, Cyclades, Greece
- Special collection: Earth analogs for martian geological materials and processes
- Geochemistry and mineralogy of a saprolite developed on Columbia River Basalt: Secondary clay formation, element leaching, and mass balance during weathering
- Special collection: Apatite: A common mineral, uncommonly versatile
- An ab-initio study of the energetics and geometry of sulfide, sulfite, and sulfate incorporation into apatite: The thermodynamic basis for using this system as an oxybarometer
- Special collection: Dynamics of magmatic processes
- The role of modifier cations in network cation coordination increases with pressure in aluminosilicate glasses and melts from 1 to 3 GPa
- Nitrides and carbonitrides from the lowermost mantle and their importance in the search for Earth’s “lost” nitrogen
- Accounting for the species-dependence of the 3500 cm−1 H2Ot infrared molar absorptivity coefficient: Implications for hydrated volcanic glasses
- A finite strain approach to thermal expansivity’s pressure dependence
- Ilmenite breakdown and rutile-titanite stability in metagranitoids: Natural observations and experimental results
- Single-crystal equations of state of magnesiowüstite at high pressures
- Analysis of erionites from volcaniclastic sedimentary rocks and possible implications for toxicological research
- Reconstructive phase transitions induced by temperature in gmelinite-Na zeolite
- Smoking gun for thallium geochemistry in volcanic arcs: Nataliyamalikite, TlI, a new thallium mineral from an active fumarole at Avacha Volcano, Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia
- How to facet gem-quality chrysoberyl: Clues from the relationship between color and pleochroism, with spectroscopic analysis and colorimetric parameters
- Letter
- Mn-Fe systematics in major planetary body reservoirs in the solar system and the positioning of the Angrite Parent Body: A crystal-chemical perspective
- Letter
- Dolomite-IV: Candidate structure for a carbonate in the Earth’s lower mantle
- Book Review
- Book Review