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Ideology and Strategy among Politicians: The Case of Judicial Independence

  • Dror Brenner und Alon Cohen EMAIL logo
Veröffentlicht/Copyright: 13. April 2016
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Abstract

Politicians act strategically. In the face of competition they modify their decisions in order to restrict the latitude of their potential successors. On the other hand, politicians have ideological preferences that also affect their decisions. The literature, however, has neglected to fully explore the interaction between these two considerations. This work offers such an analysis, using an empirical investigation of judicial independence as an example. We show that when the interaction between ideological considerations and strategic ones is accounted for, the impact of political competition on the level of judicial independence that politicians prefer – may in fact be opposite to the traditional wisdom.

Acknowledgments

We thank Andrew Hanssen for kindly providing us with his data and addressing our questions. We were able to replicate his results and extend them in order to test our theory. We are in debt to Mark Gradstein for his insightful remarks and suggestions.

Appendix

Table 3:

Summary statistics.

MeanS.D
Gallup diversity index19.61(9.60)
Racial bias index0.30(0.09)
Judicial variables
Partisan elections0.28(0.45)
Merit plan0.21(0.41)
Political variables
Majority percentage0.71(0.14)
Ranney index0.80(0.13)
One party controls both houses0.86(0.35)
Change in party control0.58(0.77)
Policy distance0.33(0.28)
One party0.33(0.47)
Control variables
Population (in 1000s)4134.97(4385.53)
Urbanization63.55(15.54)
Income per capita29.05(72.98)
Fraction age >650.10(0.03)
Fraction age between 5–170.23(0.03)
Northeast0.15(0.36)
Midwest0.15(0.35)
South0.46(0.50)
West0.24(0.43)
Table 4:

Levels/rank of conservatism indices.

LevelRank^LevelRank^
GDIRBIGDIRBIGDIRBIGDIRBI
Alabama31.40.354535Montana22.60.42844
Alaska20.80261Nevada19.60.12245
Arizona190.292123New Hampshire14.90.461649
Arkansas30.30.34226New Jersey10.40.25129
California9.10.15106New Mexico20.20.272514
Colorado10.40.31325New York40.1144
Connecticut4.90.27615North Carolina23.70.323030
Delaware10.30.24117North Dakota310.434345
Florida19.50.292322Ohio19.50.282218
Georgia26.20.343534Oklahoma28.70.353936
Hawaii4.30.0752Oregon8.20.33832
Idaho33.60.374840Pennsylvania18.40.251910
Illinois140.261512Rhode Island0.60.27217
Indiana22.80.352937South Carolina29.30.24418
Iowa25.70.393443South Dakota32.60.34627
Kansas270.283719Tennessee27.70.393842
Kentucky24.40.263111Texas26.90.323628
Louisiana31.10.334433Utah28.90.374041
Maine13.30.451447Vermont0.20.36138
Maryland8.40.27916Virginia190.32024
Massachusetts1.80.28321Washington7.10.173
Michigan16.20.261813West Virginia250.453246
Minnesota15.60.321729Wisconsin21.80.362739
Mississippi36.70.334931Wyoming32.90.464748
Missouri25.50.283320
Table 5:

Retention method, regional affiliation and ideology index.

StateRetentionRegionGDIChangeStateRetentionRegionGDIChange
AlabamaPES1NoMontanaNPEW1No
AlaskaMPW1NoNevadaNPEW1No
ArizonaMPW1YesNew HampshireGA*NE0No
ArkansasPES1NoNew JerseyGANE0No
CaliforniaMPW0NoNew MexicoMPW1Yes
ColoradoMPW0YesNew YorkGANE0No
ConnecticutLANE0NoNorth CarolinaPES1No
DelawareGAS0NoNorth DakotaNPEMW1No
FloridaMPS1YesOhioNPEMW1No
GeorgiaNPES1NoOklahomaMPS1Yes
HawaiiMPW0NoOregonNPEW0No
IdahoNPEW1NoPennsylvaniaMPNE1Yes
IllinoisMPMW0YesRhode IslandLA*NE0No
IndianaMPMW1YesSouth CarolinaLAS1No
IowaMPMW1YesSouth DakotaMPMW1Yes
KansasMPMW1YesTennesseePES1No
KentuckyNPES1NoTexasPES1No
LouisianaNPES1NoUtahMPW1Yes
MaineGANE0NoVermontGANE0No
MarylandMPS0YesVirginiaLAS1No
MassachusettsGA*NE0NoWashingtonNPEMW0No
MichiganNPEMW0NoWest VirginiaPES1No
MinnesotaNPEMW0NoWisconsinNPEW1No
MississippiPES1NoWyomingMPW1Yes
MissouriMPMW1No
Table 6:

Heterogeneous effect of political competition on retention method: multinomial logit model, USA 1950–1990.

DependentPE=1MP=1PE=1MP=1
GDI=1GDI=0GDI=1GDI=0GDI=1GDI=0GDI=1GDI=0
Majority size1.073***–0.433*–0.875*–0.044
(0.389)(0.249)(0.492)(0.278)
Single party0.0770.0240.118**0.043
(0.066)(0.019)(0.059)(0.027)
Change in control–0.046*–0.0110.0290.006
(0.028)(0.010)(0.031)(0.010)
Ranney index–1.006**0.1190.635–0.184
(0.400)(0.264)(0.495)(0.276)
GDI0.183**0.183**0.186**0.186**0.161*0.161*0.188**0.188**
(0.079)(0.079)(0.090)(0.090)(0.092)(0.092)(0.089)(0.089)
Policy distance0.1090.0470.2740.113–0.0410.0280.3580.13
(0.290)(0.084)(0.261)(0.124)(0.317)(0.156)(0.256)(0.121)
One party–0.0110.0180.2760.123–0.0830.0010.313*0.132
(0.137)(0.041)(0.173)(0.115)(0.138)(0.072)(0.172)(0.112)
Population (’000)0.000*0.0000.0000.0000.000**0.000*0.0000.000
(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
Urbanization–0.006–0.0010.012**0.004–0.008*–0.0020.013***0.004
(0.004)(0.001)(0.005)(0.003)(0.005)(0.003)(0.005)(0.002)
Income per capita0.0000.000–0.002–0.0010.0000.000–0.002–0.001
(0.001)(0.000)(0.002)(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.003)(0.001)
Fraction >65 age0.4890.1790.7290.3200.2040.2330.9750.383
(1.793)(0.457)(1.762)(0.628)(2.006)(0.911)(1.901)(0.668)
Fraction age 5–172.131**0.442–1.973*–0.5072.175**0.825–1.857*–0.487
(0.880)(0.361)(1.068)(0.413)–0.937–0.636–1.02–0.387
Northeast0.0710.015–0.068–0.0180.0990.041–0.068–0.016
(0.183)(0.052)(0.132)(0.051)(0.209)(0.112)(0.133)(0.050)
Midwest–0.153–0.037–0.024–0.021–0.168–0.074–0.011–0.017
(0.117)(0.038)(0.164)(0.055)(0.126)(0.071)(0.166)(0.056)
South0.251*0.058–0.198–0.0490.258*0.104–0.211–0.056
(0.135)(0.048)(0.171)(0.065)(0.137)(0.085)(0.166)(0.063)
N10071007100710071007100710071007
Table 7:

Heterogeneous effect of political competition on retention method: multinomial logit model, USA 1950–1990.

DependentPE=1MP=1PE=1MP=1
GDI=1GDI=0GDI=1GDI=0GDI=1GDI=0GDI=1GDI=0
Majority size1.025***–0.827*–0.622–0.081
(0.326)(0.440)(0.393)(0.414)
Single party0.0650.0570.104**0.079*
(0.050)(0.051)(0.045)(0.042)
Change in control–0.046–0.0370.0280.019
(0.029)(0.023)(0.032)(0.027)
Ranney index–1.164***0.6640.393–0.191
(0.330)(0.410)(0.388)(0.418)
RBI0.0340.0340.0660.0660.0410.0410.0800.080
(0.086)(0.086)(0.102)(0.102)(0.090)(0.090)(0.100)(0.100)
Policy distance0.1490.1420.3240.2550.0560.0750.3810.282
(0.231)(0.204)(0.230)(0.205)(0.259)(0.217)(0.243)(0.204)
One party–0.0160.0030.285*0.230–0.074–0.040.321**0.248
(0.115)(0.095)(0.154)(0.170)(0.118)(0.094)(0.157)(0.170)
Population (’000)0.0000.000**0.0000.0000.000*0.000**0.0000.000
(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
Urbanization–0.006–0.004*0.008*0.006**–0.007*–0.005*0.009*0.006**
(0.004)(0.002)(0.005)(0.003)(0.004)(0.003)(0.005)(0.003)
Income per capita–0.0010.000–0.001–0.0010.0000.000–0.001–0.001
(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)
Fraction >65 age0.1850.1830.5250.4110.0450.0880.6760.497
(1.324)(1.090)(1.751)(1.284)(1.594)(1.273)(1.949)(1.337)
Fraction age 5–172.230***1.789–1.003–0.6402.214***1.761–0.974–0.569
(0.694)(1.143)(0.855)(0.686)–0.695–1.135–0.846–0.647
Northeast0.0610.046–0.069–0.0490.0880.068–0.067–0.044
(0.153)(0.134)(0.110)(0.091)(0.170)(0.154)(0.117)(0.090)
Midwest–0.118–0.095–0.007–0.011–0.127–0.1020.008–0.002
(0.096)(0.087)(0.169)(0.127)(0.102)(0.091)(0.177)(0.127)
South0.247**0.203–0.105–0.0670.266**0.216–0.122–0.073
(0.120)(0.151)(0.128)(0.114)(0.119)(0.151)(0.131)(0.112)
N10071007100710071007100710071007
Table 8:

Heterogeneous effect of political competition on retention method (median partition): multinomial logit model, USA 1950–1990.

DependentPE=1MP=1PE=1MP=1
GDI=1GDI=0GDI=1GDI=0GDI=1GDI=0GDI=1GDI=0
Majority size1.269**0.009–1.239*0.002
(0.493)(0.343)(0.652)(0.089)
Single party0.0440.0360.140*0.013
(0.096)(0.029)(0.085)(0.011)
Change in control–0.065*–0.0190.0490.002
(0.034)(0.017)(0.040)(0.004)
Ranney index–1.095**–0.2650.969–0.095
(0.474)(0.289)(0.611)(0.121)
GDI0.213**0.213**0.387***0.387***0.240**0.240**0.383***0.383***
(0.107)(0.107)(0.105)(0.105)(0.107)(0.107)(0.105)(0.105)
Policy distance–0.186–0.0150.3280.025–0.356–0.0530.4660.036
(0.326)(0.115)(0.385)(0.043)(0.357)(0.123)(0.374)(0.048)
One party–0.1440.0070.3340.039–0.205–0.0100.365*0.046
(0.139)(0.053)(0.213)(0.051)(0.144)(0.051)(0.208)(0.055)
Population (’000)0.000*0.000*0.0000.0000.000**0.000*0.0000.000
(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
Urbanization–0.013**0.0000.028***0.002–0.015**00.028***0.003*
(0.006)(0.002)(0.008)(0.002)–0.006–0.002–0.008–0.001
Income per capita0.0000.000–0.0010.0000.0000.000–0.0010.000
(0.001)(0.000)(0.002)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)(0.002)(0.000)
Fraction >65 age–0.6350.0141.4210.119–0.7570.0071.5070.144
(2.330)(0.740)(2.370)(0.187)(2.478)(0.732)(2.504)(0.224)
Fraction age 5–172.446***0.410–3.292***–0.2232.388**0.37–3.072**–0.235
(0.928)(0.486)(1.190)(0.218)(0.953)(0.449)(1.202)(0.212)
Northeast0.082–0.014–0.266*–0.0180.113–0.007–0.262*–0.020
(0.224)(0.068)(0.153)(0.017)(0.247)(0.077)(0.152)(0.017)
Midwest–0.171–0.073–0.215–0.019–0.181–0.074–0.198–0.022
(0.153)(0.052)(0.169)(0.017)(0.165)(0.055)(0.167)(0.016)
South0.315**0.043–0.473***–0.0400.333**0.04–0.480***–0.047
(0.140)(0.066)(0.167)(0.034)(0.143)(0.069)(0.155)(0.036)
N10071007100710071007100710071007
Table 9:

Heterogeneous effect of political competition on retention method (median partition): multinomial logit model, USA 1950–1990.

DependentPE=1MP=1PE=1MP=1
GDI=1GDI=0GDI=1GDI=0GDI=1GDI=0GDI=1GDI=0
Majority size1.058***–0.358–0.452–0.271
(0.364)(0.521)(0.411)(0.354)
Single party0.0610.0560.102**0.103**
(0.058)(0.054)(0.047)(0.046)
Change in control–0.047–0.042*0.0270.026
(0.030)(0.024)(0.027)(0.031)
Ranney index–1.174***0.2390.335–0.092
(0.368)(0.493)(0.389)(0.374)
RBI0.0190.0190.0010.0010.0330.0330.0080.008
(0.102)(0.102)(0.119)(0.119)(0.104)(0.104)(0.119)(0.119)
Policy distance0.1150.1070.3210.3240.0160.0210.3680.361
(0.247)(0.237)(0.214)(0.235)(0.279)(0.244)(0.227)(0.234)
One party–0.014–0.0120.254*0.254–0.074–0.0590.283*0.276
(0.122)(0.107)(0.144)(0.175)(0.126)(0.102)(0.147)(0.174)
Population (’000)0.0000.000*0.0000.0000.000*0.000**0.0000.000
(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
Urbanization–0.005–0.0050.0070.006*–0.006–0.0050.0070.007*
(0.004)(0.003)(0.006)(0.003)–0.004–0.003–0.006–0.004
Income per capita–0.0010.000–0.001–0.0010.0000.000–0.001–0.001
(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)
Fraction >65 age0.3030.2820.9590.9680.2440.2311.0731.063
(1.514)(1.365)(2.222)(2.099)(1.650)(1.398)(2.458)(2.269)
Fraction age 5–172.078***1.894*–0.716–0.6632.070***1.787*–0.652–0.546
(0.712)(1.001)(0.880)(0.897)(0.712)(1.026)(0.894)(0.890)
Northeast0.0520.048–0.068–0.0670.0790.068–0.069–0.064
(0.174)(0.171)(0.091)(0.090)(0.190)(0.183)(0.095)(0.092)
Midwest–0.140–0.127–0.025–0.028–0.139–0.119–0.011–0.016
(0.106)(0.091)(0.136)(0.136)(0.114)(0.094)(0.147)(0.143)
South0.230*0.212–0.095–0.0900.258**0.226–0.115–0.103
(0.126)(0.164)(0.102)(0.115)(0.126)(0.166)(0.103)(0.116)
N10071007100710071007100710071007
Table 10:

Heterogeneous effect of political competition on retention method (placebo test): multinomial logit model, USA 1950–1990.

Panel A: Partisan elections (N=1007)AHIPC
Majority size (Restricted model)0.667**
(0.308)
Majority size for the 1st group1.007**
(0.394)
Majority size for the 2nd group0.487
(0.399)
Difference–0.519
(0.525)
Ranney index (Restricted model)–0.698**
(0.308)
Ranney index for the 1st group–0.981***
(0.360)
Ranney index for the 2nd group–0.639
(0.425)
Difference0.343
(0.522)
Panel B: Merit plan (N=1007)AHIPC
Majority size (Restricted model)–0.392
(0.266)
Majority size for the 1st group–0.309
(0.345)
Majority size for the 2nd group–0.101
(0.108)
Difference0.208
(0.366)
Ranney index (Restricted model)0.134
(0.299)
Ranney index for the 1st group–0.045
(0.370)
Ranney index for the 2nd group0.109
(0.130)
Difference0.154
(0.386)
Table 11:

Indication for selection into the fixed-effect subsample states.

All SampleFE SampleDifference
MeanSEMeanSEChangeSD
GDI18.620.3622.040.563.420.67
RBI0.290.000.320.010.030.01
Ranney index0.790.000.830.010.040.01
Majority size0.720.010.670.01–0.050.01
Retention method0.480.031.260.040.780.05
Single party0.860.010.870.020.020.02
Change in control0.570.030.600.040.030.05
Policy distance0.310.010.380.020.070.02
One party0.360.020.270.03–0.090.03
Population (’000s)4260.71164.163830.01255.64–430.71303.81
Urbanization61.950.5767.420.905.471.06
Income per capita32.492.7320.714.25–11.785.05
Fraction >65 age0.100.000.100.000.000.00
Fraction age 5–170.230.000.230.000.000.00
Northeast0.130.010.210.020.080.02
Midwest0.180.010.070.02–0.110.02
South0.470.020.430.03–0.040.03
Table 12:

Replicating AH estimation for the entire sample and the FE subsample: multinomial logit model, USA 1950–1990.

DependentPEPEPEPEMPMPMPMP
Majority size0.668**1.836***–0.392–1.846***
(0.309)(0.676)(0.266)(0.671)
Single party0.045–0.0350.100***0.033
(0.067)(0.162)(0.037)(0.164)
Change in control–0.044*–0.184**0.0270.185**
(0.025)(0.083)(0.027)(0.083)
Ranney index–0.699**–1.413**0.1351.431**
(0.308)(0.586)(0.299)(0.580)
Policy distance0.024–0.094–0.056–0.2940.3270.1040.383*0.304
(0.256)(0.469)(0.265)(0.536)(0.208)(0.470)(0.215)(0.535)
One party–0.038–0.262–0.080–0.3080.2580.2680.279*0.314
(0.113)(0.213)(0.112)(0.210)(0.158)(0.210)(0.156)(0.208)
Population (’000s)0.000***0.000***0.000***0.000***0.000–0.000***0.000–0.000***
(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
Urbanization–0.007*–0.044***–0.007*–0.042***0.007*0.044***0.007**0.042***
(0.004)(0.012)(0.004)(0.013)(0.003)(0.012)(0.003)(0.013)
Income per capita0.0000.008***0.0000.006**–0.001–0.008***–0.001–0.006**
(0.001)(0.003)(0.001)(0.003)(0.001)(0.003)(0.001)(0.003)
Fraction >65 age0.774–18.966**0.476–19.209**0.90419.255**1.07219.473**
(1.504)(8.902)(1.624)(8.540)(2.125)(8.940)(2.360)(8.600)
Fraction age 5–172.334***6.076***2.101***4.518*–0.801–6.287***–0.625–4.708*
(0.800)(2.304)(0.771)(2.469)(0.852)(2.403)(0.879)(2.595)
Northeast0.0620.1710.0770.202–0.065–0.186–0.060–0.217
(0.189)(0.182)(0.194)(0.182)(0.089)(0.188)(0.095)(0.186)
Midwest–0.156–0.126–0.153–0.064–0.0180.133–0.0130.070
(0.099)(0.126)(0.101)(0.118)(0.135)(0.125)(0.142)(0.117)
South0.194–0.0500.220*0.035–0.0890.048–0.102–0.037
(0.132)(0.226)(0.130)(0.239)(0.110)(0.227)(0.112)(0.238)
N1007294100729410072941007294

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Published Online: 2016-4-13
Published in Print: 2016-7-1

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Heruntergeladen am 31.12.2025 von https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.1515/rle-2015-0038/html
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