Abstract
Politicians act strategically. In the face of competition they modify their decisions in order to restrict the latitude of their potential successors. On the other hand, politicians have ideological preferences that also affect their decisions. The literature, however, has neglected to fully explore the interaction between these two considerations. This work offers such an analysis, using an empirical investigation of judicial independence as an example. We show that when the interaction between ideological considerations and strategic ones is accounted for, the impact of political competition on the level of judicial independence that politicians prefer – may in fact be opposite to the traditional wisdom.
Acknowledgments
We thank Andrew Hanssen for kindly providing us with his data and addressing our questions. We were able to replicate his results and extend them in order to test our theory. We are in debt to Mark Gradstein for his insightful remarks and suggestions.
Appendix
Summary statistics.
| Mean | S.D | |
| Gallup diversity index | 19.61 | (9.60) |
| Racial bias index | 0.30 | (0.09) |
| Judicial variables | ||
| Partisan elections | 0.28 | (0.45) |
| Merit plan | 0.21 | (0.41) |
| Political variables | ||
| Majority percentage | 0.71 | (0.14) |
| Ranney index | 0.80 | (0.13) |
| One party controls both houses | 0.86 | (0.35) |
| Change in party control | 0.58 | (0.77) |
| Policy distance | 0.33 | (0.28) |
| One party | 0.33 | (0.47) |
| Control variables | ||
| Population (in 1000s) | 4134.97 | (4385.53) |
| Urbanization | 63.55 | (15.54) |
| Income per capita | 29.05 | (72.98) |
| Fraction age >65 | 0.10 | (0.03) |
| Fraction age between 5–17 | 0.23 | (0.03) |
| Northeast | 0.15 | (0.36) |
| Midwest | 0.15 | (0.35) |
| South | 0.46 | (0.50) |
| West | 0.24 | (0.43) |
Levels/rank of conservatism indices.
| Level | Rank^ | Level | Rank^ | ||||||
| GDI | RBI | GDI | RBI | GDI | RBI | GDI | RBI | ||
| Alabama | 31.4 | 0.35 | 45 | 35 | Montana | 22.6 | 0.4 | 28 | 44 |
| Alaska | 20.8 | 0 | 26 | 1 | Nevada | 19.6 | 0.12 | 24 | 5 |
| Arizona | 19 | 0.29 | 21 | 23 | New Hampshire | 14.9 | 0.46 | 16 | 49 |
| Arkansas | 30.3 | 0.3 | 42 | 26 | New Jersey | 10.4 | 0.25 | 12 | 9 |
| California | 9.1 | 0.15 | 10 | 6 | New Mexico | 20.2 | 0.27 | 25 | 14 |
| Colorado | 10.4 | 0.3 | 13 | 25 | New York | 4 | 0.11 | 4 | 4 |
| Connecticut | 4.9 | 0.27 | 6 | 15 | North Carolina | 23.7 | 0.32 | 30 | 30 |
| Delaware | 10.3 | 0.24 | 11 | 7 | North Dakota | 31 | 0.43 | 43 | 45 |
| Florida | 19.5 | 0.29 | 23 | 22 | Ohio | 19.5 | 0.28 | 22 | 18 |
| Georgia | 26.2 | 0.34 | 35 | 34 | Oklahoma | 28.7 | 0.35 | 39 | 36 |
| Hawaii | 4.3 | 0.07 | 5 | 2 | Oregon | 8.2 | 0.33 | 8 | 32 |
| Idaho | 33.6 | 0.37 | 48 | 40 | Pennsylvania | 18.4 | 0.25 | 19 | 10 |
| Illinois | 14 | 0.26 | 15 | 12 | Rhode Island | 0.6 | 0.27 | 2 | 17 |
| Indiana | 22.8 | 0.35 | 29 | 37 | South Carolina | 29.3 | 0.24 | 41 | 8 |
| Iowa | 25.7 | 0.39 | 34 | 43 | South Dakota | 32.6 | 0.3 | 46 | 27 |
| Kansas | 27 | 0.28 | 37 | 19 | Tennessee | 27.7 | 0.39 | 38 | 42 |
| Kentucky | 24.4 | 0.26 | 31 | 11 | Texas | 26.9 | 0.32 | 36 | 28 |
| Louisiana | 31.1 | 0.33 | 44 | 33 | Utah | 28.9 | 0.37 | 40 | 41 |
| Maine | 13.3 | 0.45 | 14 | 47 | Vermont | 0.2 | 0.36 | 1 | 38 |
| Maryland | 8.4 | 0.27 | 9 | 16 | Virginia | 19 | 0.3 | 20 | 24 |
| Massachusetts | 1.8 | 0.28 | 3 | 21 | Washington | 7.1 | 0.1 | 7 | 3 |
| Michigan | 16.2 | 0.26 | 18 | 13 | West Virginia | 25 | 0.45 | 32 | 46 |
| Minnesota | 15.6 | 0.32 | 17 | 29 | Wisconsin | 21.8 | 0.36 | 27 | 39 |
| Mississippi | 36.7 | 0.33 | 49 | 31 | Wyoming | 32.9 | 0.46 | 47 | 48 |
| Missouri | 25.5 | 0.28 | 33 | 20 | |||||
Retention method, regional affiliation and ideology index.
| State | Retention | Region | GDI | Change | State | Retention | Region | GDI | Change |
| Alabama | PE | S | 1 | No | Montana | NPE | W | 1 | No |
| Alaska | MP | W | 1 | No | Nevada | NPE | W | 1 | No |
| Arizona | MP | W | 1 | Yes | New Hampshire | GA* | NE | 0 | No |
| Arkansas | PE | S | 1 | No | New Jersey | GA | NE | 0 | No |
| California | MP | W | 0 | No | New Mexico | MP | W | 1 | Yes |
| Colorado | MP | W | 0 | Yes | New York | GA | NE | 0 | No |
| Connecticut | LA | NE | 0 | No | North Carolina | PE | S | 1 | No |
| Delaware | GA | S | 0 | No | North Dakota | NPE | MW | 1 | No |
| Florida | MP | S | 1 | Yes | Ohio | NPE | MW | 1 | No |
| Georgia | NPE | S | 1 | No | Oklahoma | MP | S | 1 | Yes |
| Hawaii | MP | W | 0 | No | Oregon | NPE | W | 0 | No |
| Idaho | NPE | W | 1 | No | Pennsylvania | MP | NE | 1 | Yes |
| Illinois | MP | MW | 0 | Yes | Rhode Island | LA* | NE | 0 | No |
| Indiana | MP | MW | 1 | Yes | South Carolina | LA | S | 1 | No |
| Iowa | MP | MW | 1 | Yes | South Dakota | MP | MW | 1 | Yes |
| Kansas | MP | MW | 1 | Yes | Tennessee | PE | S | 1 | No |
| Kentucky | NPE | S | 1 | No | Texas | PE | S | 1 | No |
| Louisiana | NPE | S | 1 | No | Utah | MP | W | 1 | Yes |
| Maine | GA | NE | 0 | No | Vermont | GA | NE | 0 | No |
| Maryland | MP | S | 0 | Yes | Virginia | LA | S | 1 | No |
| Massachusetts | GA* | NE | 0 | No | Washington | NPE | MW | 0 | No |
| Michigan | NPE | MW | 0 | No | West Virginia | PE | S | 1 | No |
| Minnesota | NPE | MW | 0 | No | Wisconsin | NPE | W | 1 | No |
| Mississippi | PE | S | 1 | No | Wyoming | MP | W | 1 | Yes |
| Missouri | MP | MW | 1 | No |
Heterogeneous effect of political competition on retention method: multinomial logit model, USA 1950–1990.
| Dependent | PE=1 | MP=1 | PE=1 | MP=1 | ||||
| GDI=1 | GDI=0 | GDI=1 | GDI=0 | GDI=1 | GDI=0 | GDI=1 | GDI=0 | |
| Majority size | 1.073*** | –0.433* | –0.875* | –0.044 | ||||
| (0.389) | (0.249) | (0.492) | (0.278) | |||||
| Single party | 0.077 | 0.024 | 0.118** | 0.043 | ||||
| (0.066) | (0.019) | (0.059) | (0.027) | |||||
| Change in control | –0.046* | –0.011 | 0.029 | 0.006 | ||||
| (0.028) | (0.010) | (0.031) | (0.010) | |||||
| Ranney index | –1.006** | 0.119 | 0.635 | –0.184 | ||||
| (0.400) | (0.264) | (0.495) | (0.276) | |||||
| GDI | 0.183** | 0.183** | 0.186** | 0.186** | 0.161* | 0.161* | 0.188** | 0.188** |
| (0.079) | (0.079) | (0.090) | (0.090) | (0.092) | (0.092) | (0.089) | (0.089) | |
| Policy distance | 0.109 | 0.047 | 0.274 | 0.113 | –0.041 | 0.028 | 0.358 | 0.13 |
| (0.290) | (0.084) | (0.261) | (0.124) | (0.317) | (0.156) | (0.256) | (0.121) | |
| One party | –0.011 | 0.018 | 0.276 | 0.123 | –0.083 | 0.001 | 0.313* | 0.132 |
| (0.137) | (0.041) | (0.173) | (0.115) | (0.138) | (0.072) | (0.172) | (0.112) | |
| Population (’000) | 0.000* | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000** | 0.000* | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
| Urbanization | –0.006 | –0.001 | 0.012** | 0.004 | –0.008* | –0.002 | 0.013*** | 0.004 |
| (0.004) | (0.001) | (0.005) | (0.003) | (0.005) | (0.003) | (0.005) | (0.002) | |
| Income per capita | 0.000 | 0.000 | –0.002 | –0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | –0.002 | –0.001 |
| (0.001) | (0.000) | (0.002) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.000) | (0.003) | (0.001) | |
| Fraction >65 age | 0.489 | 0.179 | 0.729 | 0.320 | 0.204 | 0.233 | 0.975 | 0.383 |
| (1.793) | (0.457) | (1.762) | (0.628) | (2.006) | (0.911) | (1.901) | (0.668) | |
| Fraction age 5–17 | 2.131** | 0.442 | –1.973* | –0.507 | 2.175** | 0.825 | –1.857* | –0.487 |
| (0.880) | (0.361) | (1.068) | (0.413) | –0.937 | –0.636 | –1.02 | –0.387 | |
| Northeast | 0.071 | 0.015 | –0.068 | –0.018 | 0.099 | 0.041 | –0.068 | –0.016 |
| (0.183) | (0.052) | (0.132) | (0.051) | (0.209) | (0.112) | (0.133) | (0.050) | |
| Midwest | –0.153 | –0.037 | –0.024 | –0.021 | –0.168 | –0.074 | –0.011 | –0.017 |
| (0.117) | (0.038) | (0.164) | (0.055) | (0.126) | (0.071) | (0.166) | (0.056) | |
| South | 0.251* | 0.058 | –0.198 | –0.049 | 0.258* | 0.104 | –0.211 | –0.056 |
| (0.135) | (0.048) | (0.171) | (0.065) | (0.137) | (0.085) | (0.166) | (0.063) | |
| N | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 |
Heterogeneous effect of political competition on retention method: multinomial logit model, USA 1950–1990.
| Dependent | PE=1 | MP=1 | PE=1 | MP=1 | ||||
| GDI=1 | GDI=0 | GDI=1 | GDI=0 | GDI=1 | GDI=0 | GDI=1 | GDI=0 | |
| Majority size | 1.025*** | –0.827* | –0.622 | –0.081 | ||||
| (0.326) | (0.440) | (0.393) | (0.414) | |||||
| Single party | 0.065 | 0.057 | 0.104** | 0.079* | ||||
| (0.050) | (0.051) | (0.045) | (0.042) | |||||
| Change in control | –0.046 | –0.037 | 0.028 | 0.019 | ||||
| (0.029) | (0.023) | (0.032) | (0.027) | |||||
| Ranney index | –1.164*** | 0.664 | 0.393 | –0.191 | ||||
| (0.330) | (0.410) | (0.388) | (0.418) | |||||
| RBI | 0.034 | 0.034 | 0.066 | 0.066 | 0.041 | 0.041 | 0.080 | 0.080 |
| (0.086) | (0.086) | (0.102) | (0.102) | (0.090) | (0.090) | (0.100) | (0.100) | |
| Policy distance | 0.149 | 0.142 | 0.324 | 0.255 | 0.056 | 0.075 | 0.381 | 0.282 |
| (0.231) | (0.204) | (0.230) | (0.205) | (0.259) | (0.217) | (0.243) | (0.204) | |
| One party | –0.016 | 0.003 | 0.285* | 0.230 | –0.074 | –0.04 | 0.321** | 0.248 |
| (0.115) | (0.095) | (0.154) | (0.170) | (0.118) | (0.094) | (0.157) | (0.170) | |
| Population (’000) | 0.000 | 0.000** | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000* | 0.000** | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
| Urbanization | –0.006 | –0.004* | 0.008* | 0.006** | –0.007* | –0.005* | 0.009* | 0.006** |
| (0.004) | (0.002) | (0.005) | (0.003) | (0.004) | (0.003) | (0.005) | (0.003) | |
| Income per capita | –0.001 | 0.000 | –0.001 | –0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | –0.001 | –0.001 |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | |
| Fraction >65 age | 0.185 | 0.183 | 0.525 | 0.411 | 0.045 | 0.088 | 0.676 | 0.497 |
| (1.324) | (1.090) | (1.751) | (1.284) | (1.594) | (1.273) | (1.949) | (1.337) | |
| Fraction age 5–17 | 2.230*** | 1.789 | –1.003 | –0.640 | 2.214*** | 1.761 | –0.974 | –0.569 |
| (0.694) | (1.143) | (0.855) | (0.686) | –0.695 | –1.135 | –0.846 | –0.647 | |
| Northeast | 0.061 | 0.046 | –0.069 | –0.049 | 0.088 | 0.068 | –0.067 | –0.044 |
| (0.153) | (0.134) | (0.110) | (0.091) | (0.170) | (0.154) | (0.117) | (0.090) | |
| Midwest | –0.118 | –0.095 | –0.007 | –0.011 | –0.127 | –0.102 | 0.008 | –0.002 |
| (0.096) | (0.087) | (0.169) | (0.127) | (0.102) | (0.091) | (0.177) | (0.127) | |
| South | 0.247** | 0.203 | –0.105 | –0.067 | 0.266** | 0.216 | –0.122 | –0.073 |
| (0.120) | (0.151) | (0.128) | (0.114) | (0.119) | (0.151) | (0.131) | (0.112) | |
| N | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 |
Heterogeneous effect of political competition on retention method (median partition): multinomial logit model, USA 1950–1990.
| Dependent | PE=1 | MP=1 | PE=1 | MP=1 | ||||
| GDI=1 | GDI=0 | GDI=1 | GDI=0 | GDI=1 | GDI=0 | GDI=1 | GDI=0 | |
| Majority size | 1.269** | 0.009 | –1.239* | 0.002 | ||||
| (0.493) | (0.343) | (0.652) | (0.089) | |||||
| Single party | 0.044 | 0.036 | 0.140* | 0.013 | ||||
| (0.096) | (0.029) | (0.085) | (0.011) | |||||
| Change in control | –0.065* | –0.019 | 0.049 | 0.002 | ||||
| (0.034) | (0.017) | (0.040) | (0.004) | |||||
| Ranney index | –1.095** | –0.265 | 0.969 | –0.095 | ||||
| (0.474) | (0.289) | (0.611) | (0.121) | |||||
| GDI | 0.213** | 0.213** | 0.387*** | 0.387*** | 0.240** | 0.240** | 0.383*** | 0.383*** |
| (0.107) | (0.107) | (0.105) | (0.105) | (0.107) | (0.107) | (0.105) | (0.105) | |
| Policy distance | –0.186 | –0.015 | 0.328 | 0.025 | –0.356 | –0.053 | 0.466 | 0.036 |
| (0.326) | (0.115) | (0.385) | (0.043) | (0.357) | (0.123) | (0.374) | (0.048) | |
| One party | –0.144 | 0.007 | 0.334 | 0.039 | –0.205 | –0.010 | 0.365* | 0.046 |
| (0.139) | (0.053) | (0.213) | (0.051) | (0.144) | (0.051) | (0.208) | (0.055) | |
| Population (’000) | 0.000* | 0.000* | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000** | 0.000* | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
| Urbanization | –0.013** | 0.000 | 0.028*** | 0.002 | –0.015** | 0 | 0.028*** | 0.003* |
| (0.006) | (0.002) | (0.008) | (0.002) | –0.006 | –0.002 | –0.008 | –0.001 | |
| Income per capita | 0.000 | 0.000 | –0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | –0.001 | 0.000 |
| (0.001) | (0.000) | (0.002) | (0.000) | (0.001) | (0.000) | (0.002) | (0.000) | |
| Fraction >65 age | –0.635 | 0.014 | 1.421 | 0.119 | –0.757 | 0.007 | 1.507 | 0.144 |
| (2.330) | (0.740) | (2.370) | (0.187) | (2.478) | (0.732) | (2.504) | (0.224) | |
| Fraction age 5–17 | 2.446*** | 0.410 | –3.292*** | –0.223 | 2.388** | 0.37 | –3.072** | –0.235 |
| (0.928) | (0.486) | (1.190) | (0.218) | (0.953) | (0.449) | (1.202) | (0.212) | |
| Northeast | 0.082 | –0.014 | –0.266* | –0.018 | 0.113 | –0.007 | –0.262* | –0.020 |
| (0.224) | (0.068) | (0.153) | (0.017) | (0.247) | (0.077) | (0.152) | (0.017) | |
| Midwest | –0.171 | –0.073 | –0.215 | –0.019 | –0.181 | –0.074 | –0.198 | –0.022 |
| (0.153) | (0.052) | (0.169) | (0.017) | (0.165) | (0.055) | (0.167) | (0.016) | |
| South | 0.315** | 0.043 | –0.473*** | –0.040 | 0.333** | 0.04 | –0.480*** | –0.047 |
| (0.140) | (0.066) | (0.167) | (0.034) | (0.143) | (0.069) | (0.155) | (0.036) | |
| N | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 |
Heterogeneous effect of political competition on retention method (median partition): multinomial logit model, USA 1950–1990.
| Dependent | PE=1 | MP=1 | PE=1 | MP=1 | ||||
| GDI=1 | GDI=0 | GDI=1 | GDI=0 | GDI=1 | GDI=0 | GDI=1 | GDI=0 | |
| Majority size | 1.058*** | –0.358 | –0.452 | –0.271 | ||||
| (0.364) | (0.521) | (0.411) | (0.354) | |||||
| Single party | 0.061 | 0.056 | 0.102** | 0.103** | ||||
| (0.058) | (0.054) | (0.047) | (0.046) | |||||
| Change in control | –0.047 | –0.042* | 0.027 | 0.026 | ||||
| (0.030) | (0.024) | (0.027) | (0.031) | |||||
| Ranney index | –1.174*** | 0.239 | 0.335 | –0.092 | ||||
| (0.368) | (0.493) | (0.389) | (0.374) | |||||
| RBI | 0.019 | 0.019 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.033 | 0.033 | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| (0.102) | (0.102) | (0.119) | (0.119) | (0.104) | (0.104) | (0.119) | (0.119) | |
| Policy distance | 0.115 | 0.107 | 0.321 | 0.324 | 0.016 | 0.021 | 0.368 | 0.361 |
| (0.247) | (0.237) | (0.214) | (0.235) | (0.279) | (0.244) | (0.227) | (0.234) | |
| One party | –0.014 | –0.012 | 0.254* | 0.254 | –0.074 | –0.059 | 0.283* | 0.276 |
| (0.122) | (0.107) | (0.144) | (0.175) | (0.126) | (0.102) | (0.147) | (0.174) | |
| Population (’000) | 0.000 | 0.000* | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000* | 0.000** | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
| Urbanization | –0.005 | –0.005 | 0.007 | 0.006* | –0.006 | –0.005 | 0.007 | 0.007* |
| (0.004) | (0.003) | (0.006) | (0.003) | –0.004 | –0.003 | –0.006 | –0.004 | |
| Income per capita | –0.001 | 0.000 | –0.001 | –0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | –0.001 | –0.001 |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | |
| Fraction >65 age | 0.303 | 0.282 | 0.959 | 0.968 | 0.244 | 0.231 | 1.073 | 1.063 |
| (1.514) | (1.365) | (2.222) | (2.099) | (1.650) | (1.398) | (2.458) | (2.269) | |
| Fraction age 5–17 | 2.078*** | 1.894* | –0.716 | –0.663 | 2.070*** | 1.787* | –0.652 | –0.546 |
| (0.712) | (1.001) | (0.880) | (0.897) | (0.712) | (1.026) | (0.894) | (0.890) | |
| Northeast | 0.052 | 0.048 | –0.068 | –0.067 | 0.079 | 0.068 | –0.069 | –0.064 |
| (0.174) | (0.171) | (0.091) | (0.090) | (0.190) | (0.183) | (0.095) | (0.092) | |
| Midwest | –0.140 | –0.127 | –0.025 | –0.028 | –0.139 | –0.119 | –0.011 | –0.016 |
| (0.106) | (0.091) | (0.136) | (0.136) | (0.114) | (0.094) | (0.147) | (0.143) | |
| South | 0.230* | 0.212 | –0.095 | –0.090 | 0.258** | 0.226 | –0.115 | –0.103 |
| (0.126) | (0.164) | (0.102) | (0.115) | (0.126) | (0.166) | (0.103) | (0.116) | |
| N | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 | 1007 |
Heterogeneous effect of political competition on retention method (placebo test): multinomial logit model, USA 1950–1990.
| Panel A: Partisan elections (N=1007) | AH | IPC |
| Majority size (Restricted model) | 0.667** | |
| (0.308) | ||
| Majority size for the 1st group | 1.007** | |
| (0.394) | ||
| Majority size for the 2nd group | 0.487 | |
| (0.399) | ||
| Difference | –0.519 | |
| (0.525) | ||
| Ranney index (Restricted model) | –0.698** | |
| (0.308) | ||
| Ranney index for the 1st group | –0.981*** | |
| (0.360) | ||
| Ranney index for the 2nd group | –0.639 | |
| (0.425) | ||
| Difference | 0.343 | |
| (0.522) | ||
| Panel B: Merit plan (N=1007) | AH | IPC |
| Majority size (Restricted model) | –0.392 | |
| (0.266) | ||
| Majority size for the 1st group | –0.309 | |
| (0.345) | ||
| Majority size for the 2nd group | –0.101 | |
| (0.108) | ||
| Difference | 0.208 | |
| (0.366) | ||
| Ranney index (Restricted model) | 0.134 | |
| (0.299) | ||
| Ranney index for the 1st group | –0.045 | |
| (0.370) | ||
| Ranney index for the 2nd group | 0.109 | |
| (0.130) | ||
| Difference | 0.154 | |
| (0.386) |
Indication for selection into the fixed-effect subsample states.
| All Sample | FE Sample | Difference | ||||
| Mean | SE | Mean | SE | Change | SD | |
| GDI | 18.62 | 0.36 | 22.04 | 0.56 | 3.42 | 0.67 |
| RBI | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Ranney index | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.83 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| Majority size | 0.72 | 0.01 | 0.67 | 0.01 | –0.05 | 0.01 |
| Retention method | 0.48 | 0.03 | 1.26 | 0.04 | 0.78 | 0.05 |
| Single party | 0.86 | 0.01 | 0.87 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Change in control | 0.57 | 0.03 | 0.60 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Policy distance | 0.31 | 0.01 | 0.38 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| One party | 0.36 | 0.02 | 0.27 | 0.03 | –0.09 | 0.03 |
| Population (’000s) | 4260.71 | 164.16 | 3830.01 | 255.64 | –430.71 | 303.81 |
| Urbanization | 61.95 | 0.57 | 67.42 | 0.90 | 5.47 | 1.06 |
| Income per capita | 32.49 | 2.73 | 20.71 | 4.25 | –11.78 | 5.05 |
| Fraction >65 age | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fraction age 5–17 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Northeast | 0.13 | 0.01 | 0.21 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| Midwest | 0.18 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.02 | –0.11 | 0.02 |
| South | 0.47 | 0.02 | 0.43 | 0.03 | –0.04 | 0.03 |
Replicating AH estimation for the entire sample and the FE subsample: multinomial logit model, USA 1950–1990.
| Dependent | PE | PE | PE | PE | MP | MP | MP | MP |
| Majority size | 0.668** | 1.836*** | –0.392 | –1.846*** | ||||
| (0.309) | (0.676) | (0.266) | (0.671) | |||||
| Single party | 0.045 | –0.035 | 0.100*** | 0.033 | ||||
| (0.067) | (0.162) | (0.037) | (0.164) | |||||
| Change in control | –0.044* | –0.184** | 0.027 | 0.185** | ||||
| (0.025) | (0.083) | (0.027) | (0.083) | |||||
| Ranney index | –0.699** | –1.413** | 0.135 | 1.431** | ||||
| (0.308) | (0.586) | (0.299) | (0.580) | |||||
| Policy distance | 0.024 | –0.094 | –0.056 | –0.294 | 0.327 | 0.104 | 0.383* | 0.304 |
| (0.256) | (0.469) | (0.265) | (0.536) | (0.208) | (0.470) | (0.215) | (0.535) | |
| One party | –0.038 | –0.262 | –0.080 | –0.308 | 0.258 | 0.268 | 0.279* | 0.314 |
| (0.113) | (0.213) | (0.112) | (0.210) | (0.158) | (0.210) | (0.156) | (0.208) | |
| Population (’000s) | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | 0.000 | –0.000*** | 0.000 | –0.000*** |
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
| Urbanization | –0.007* | –0.044*** | –0.007* | –0.042*** | 0.007* | 0.044*** | 0.007** | 0.042*** |
| (0.004) | (0.012) | (0.004) | (0.013) | (0.003) | (0.012) | (0.003) | (0.013) | |
| Income per capita | 0.000 | 0.008*** | 0.000 | 0.006** | –0.001 | –0.008*** | –0.001 | –0.006** |
| (0.001) | (0.003) | (0.001) | (0.003) | (0.001) | (0.003) | (0.001) | (0.003) | |
| Fraction >65 age | 0.774 | –18.966** | 0.476 | –19.209** | 0.904 | 19.255** | 1.072 | 19.473** |
| (1.504) | (8.902) | (1.624) | (8.540) | (2.125) | (8.940) | (2.360) | (8.600) | |
| Fraction age 5–17 | 2.334*** | 6.076*** | 2.101*** | 4.518* | –0.801 | –6.287*** | –0.625 | –4.708* |
| (0.800) | (2.304) | (0.771) | (2.469) | (0.852) | (2.403) | (0.879) | (2.595) | |
| Northeast | 0.062 | 0.171 | 0.077 | 0.202 | –0.065 | –0.186 | –0.060 | –0.217 |
| (0.189) | (0.182) | (0.194) | (0.182) | (0.089) | (0.188) | (0.095) | (0.186) | |
| Midwest | –0.156 | –0.126 | –0.153 | –0.064 | –0.018 | 0.133 | –0.013 | 0.070 |
| (0.099) | (0.126) | (0.101) | (0.118) | (0.135) | (0.125) | (0.142) | (0.117) | |
| South | 0.194 | –0.050 | 0.220* | 0.035 | –0.089 | 0.048 | –0.102 | –0.037 |
| (0.132) | (0.226) | (0.130) | (0.239) | (0.110) | (0.227) | (0.112) | (0.238) | |
| N | 1007 | 294 | 1007 | 294 | 1007 | 294 | 1007 | 294 |
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Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Litigation with a Variable Cost of Trial
- Ex ante versus Ex post Governance: A Behavioral Perspective
- Risk Aversion, the Hand Rule, and Comparison between Strict Liability and the Negligence Rule
- Takings and Tax Revenue: Fiscal Impacts of Eminent Domain
- When Should Governments Reveal Criminal Histories?
- Ideology and Strategy among Politicians: The Case of Judicial Independence
- Tax Return as a Political Statement
- What Makes Law to Change Behavior? An Experimental Study
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Litigation with a Variable Cost of Trial
- Ex ante versus Ex post Governance: A Behavioral Perspective
- Risk Aversion, the Hand Rule, and Comparison between Strict Liability and the Negligence Rule
- Takings and Tax Revenue: Fiscal Impacts of Eminent Domain
- When Should Governments Reveal Criminal Histories?
- Ideology and Strategy among Politicians: The Case of Judicial Independence
- Tax Return as a Political Statement
- What Makes Law to Change Behavior? An Experimental Study