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Public Support for UN Missions and Attacks on Peacekeepers: Evidence From the Democratic Republic of the Congo

  • Burak Giray ORCID logo EMAIL logo
Veröffentlicht/Copyright: 17. November 2022

Abstract

UN peacekeepers are often targeted by rebel groups. The violence they experience hinders the functionality of peacekeeping operations, constituting a major problem for the UN. What conditions make these attacks more likely? How does the local support for UN peacekeeping operations affect the violence against peacekeepers? Using an original data set that includes local trust sentiments towards MONUSCO’s peacekeepers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from October 2014 to December 2020, this study finds that peacekeepers are attacked more often when they lack local support. In the absence of local support, peacekeepers become vulnerable as they can no longer gather intelligence about rebel activities from the locals and the increased distrust for peacekeepers gives propagandist benefits to rebel groups. This study suggests to the UN that it needs to employ strategies in peacekeeping operations that would legitimize the presence of peacekeepers and cultivate more strengthened civil-military relations.

JEL Classification: C81; D83; F5

Corresponding author: Burak Giray, Department of Political Science, University of Houston, Houston, USA, E-mail:

The author thanks J. Tyson Chatagnier for comments on previous drafts.


Appendix A: Graph Appendix

This section provides additional descriptive information from the data. Table A1 presents the descriptive statistics, in which the number of observation, mean, standard deviation as well as minimum and maximum values of each variable is provided.

Table A1:

Descriptive statistics.

Statistic N Mean St. dev. Min Pctl (25) Pctl (75) Max
Peacekeeper fatality 75 1.653 2.424 0 0.5 2 17
Peacekeeper fatality t−1 75 1.640 2.425 0 0.5 2 17
Trust sentiments (as %) 75 0.141 0.088 0.000 0.092 0.165 0.500
Peacekeeper size (logged) 75 9.774 0.104 9.547 9.726 9.838 9.956
Troop size (logged) 75 9.679 0.108 9.439 9.641 9.740 9.877
Police size (logged) 75 7.133 0.091 6.984 7.069 7.216 7.256
Observers (logged) 75 5.733 0.435 5.075 5.269 6.157 6.229
Troop-providers 75 55.267 1.388 53 54 56 59
Total violence t−1 75 246.600 250.253 5 93 312.5 1240
Time since mission’s onset 75 89.000 21.794 52 70.5 107.5 126

Figure A1 demonstrates the frequency of tweets on MONUSCO peacekeepers in the DRC from October 2014 to February 2022 (the main data is right censored on December 2020 due to data missingness on other variables). The first ever tweet on MONUSCO peacekeepers is posted on October 2, 2014. In the first month, there are only 26 tweets while the highest number of tweets (239) is posted in April 2021.

Figure A1: 
Count of tweets on MONUSCO peacekeepers.
Figure A1:

Count of tweets on MONUSCO peacekeepers.

Figures A2 and A3 are the word clouds that show the most frequent words in English and French tweets.

Figure A2: 
Word cloud of the tweets in English.
Figure A2:

Word cloud of the tweets in English.

Figure A3: 
Word cloud of the tweets in French.
Figure A3:

Word cloud of the tweets in French.

Figure A4 presents the distribution of trust sentiments in tweets for MONUSCO peacekeepers. As can be seen in the figure, the trust for peacekeepers could show a big difference from one time period to another.

Figure A4: 
Trust sentiments for MONUSCO peacekeepers.
Figure A4:

Trust sentiments for MONUSCO peacekeepers.

Similarly, Figure A5 displays the distributions of positive and negative sentiments in tweets for MONUSCO peacekeepers. The figure shows that there is no significant difference between positive and negative sentiments. It, therefore, wipes out the concerns related to whether Twitter users tweet more when they are disappointed by MONUSCO peacekeepers.

Figure A5: 
Negative and positive sentiments for MONUSCO peacekeepers.
Figure A5:

Negative and positive sentiments for MONUSCO peacekeepers.

Next, Figure A6 compares the ratio of trust sentiments that is calculated from Twitter Data to the percentages of confidence in MONUSCO, acquired from a survey data entitled “Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Surveys” (Vinck et al. 2019). The survey has been conducted twice a year since 2013. It provides information about how the respondents in the DRC perceive MONUSCO as a security actor. The blue line in the plot represents the respondents’ confidence in MONUSCO (as of %) to ensure security, and the red line represents the trust sentiments calculated using the tweets on MONUSCO peacekeepers. While the two lines show difference in magnitude, the trends are generally similar in terms of direction. The figure, therefore, is helpful in addressing concerns related to the representativeness of Twitter data.

Figure A6: 
Survey data versus Twitter data.
Figure A6:

Survey data versus Twitter data.

The verified Twitter account of MONUSCO (@MONUSCO) provides detailed information on the daily activities of MONUSCO peacekeepers, and clears up any concern regarding the language barrier between UN peacekeepers and the locals. Figure A7, for instance, demonstrates that non-French speaking Nepalese peacekeepers gather with local women to increase awareness among them about gender-based violence and feminine health. The examples of military-civil interactions can be expanded. The tweets of @MONUSCO further inform us that MONUSCO peacekeepers visit schools and villages regularly to distribute food and clean water, inform the locals about their mandates, and even organize football matches with villagers.

Figure A7: 
Nepalese peacekeepers interact with locals.
Figure A7:

Nepalese peacekeepers interact with locals.

Figure A8 demonstrates four examples of intelligence-gathering from villagers and local actors at various time points (2013, 2016, 2021, and 2022). One can come across more of such examples with a closer examination of the verified Twitter account of MONUSCO. It can be interpreted from these tweets that MONUSCO peacekeepers can gather intelligence from the local population or local actors such as village chiefs and doctors either directly or with the help of interpreters. The frequency of such intelligence-gathering patrols might wipe out any concerns that villagers are not knowledgeable about the rebel groups.

Figure A8: 
Examples of intelligence-gathering from villagers and local actors.
Figure A8:

Examples of intelligence-gathering from villagers and local actors.

Appendix B: Supplementary Empirical Results

This section provides additional empirical analyses. To begin with, I first check whether the relationship between trust sentiments and peacekeeper fatalities is affected by the outlier, December-2017. After the outlier is omitted from the sample, no evidence of overdispersion is detected. For this reason, I used Poisson Regression in four of the models reported in Table B1.

Table B1:

Omitting outliers – poisson regression.

DV: peacekeeper fatality
No clustered SEs Clustered SEs
Peacekeeper fatality t−1 −0.007 −0.007
(0.044) (0.034)
Trust sentiments (as %) −2.925* −2.918* −2.925 −2.918*
(1.605) (1.602) (1.779) (1.773)
Troop size 1.697 1.671 1.697 1.671
(2.685) (2.688) (3.266) (3.208)
Police size −1.188 −1.168 −1.188 −1.168
(1.193) (1.201) (1.654) (1.696)
Observers 1.079 1.069 1.079 1.069
(0.740) (0.743) (0.742) (0.752)
Troop-providers −0.110 −0.113 −0.110 −0.113
(0.080) (0.083) (0.079) (0.086)
Total violence t−1 −0.114 −0.111 −0.114 −0.111
(0.119) (0.120) (0.139) (0.141)
Time since mission’s onset 0.039* 0.039* 0.039* 0.039
(0.022) (0.022) (0.025) (0.025)
Constant −10.273 −9.914 −10.273 −9.914
(30.929) (31.010) (42.587) (41.854)

Observations 74 74 74 74
Akaike Inf. Crit. 252.017 253.994 252.017 253.994
  1. * p < 0.1; ** p < 0.05; *** p < 0.01.

The table presents the findings from Poisson Regression with and without clustered standard errors. The findings are robust in three of the four models, and trust sentiments loses its statistical significance only in the third model.

In Table B2, I check for the issue of overfitting. Excluding Troop size, Police size and Observers from the models, I instead include Peacekeeper size, which is the sum of all types of UN personnel. As seen in the table, trust sentiments is found to have statistical significance in the expected direction in the models with clustered standard errors.

Table B2:

Addressing overfitting concerns – negative binomial regression.

DV: peacekeeper fatality
No clustered SEs Clustered SEs
Peacekeeper fatality t−1 −0.018 −0.018
(0.054) (0.032)
Trust sentiments (as %) −3.015 −3.042 −3.015* −3.042*
(1.920) (1.916) (1.725) (1.716)
Peacekeeper size −0.108 −0.229 −0.108 −0.229
(3.862) (3.863) (3.348) (3.319)
Troop-providers −0.205* −0.213* −0.205* −0.213*
(0.107) (0.111) (0.116) (0.120)
Total violence t−1 −0.097 −0.091 −0.097 −0.091
(0.145) (0.146) (0.127) (0.128)
Time since mission’s onset 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.011
(0.019) (0.019) (0.017) (0.016)
Constant 12.735 14.413 12.735 14.413

(40.107)
(40.242)
(36.644)
(36.373)
Observations 75 75 75 75
Akaike Inf. Crit. 268.133 270.043 268.133 270.043
  1. * p < 0.1; ** p < 0.05; *** p < 0.01.

Next, I evaluate the existence of reverse causality in Table B3. In an OLS model, I regress trust sentiments on the lagged peacekeeper fatality. Based on the results from the linear regression analyses, no evidence of reverse causality is detected.

Table B3:

Reverse causality – linear regression.

DV: Trust Sentiments (as %)
No clustered SEs Clustered SEs
Peacekeeper fatality t−1 −0.001 −0.0003 −0.001 −0.0003
(0.004) (0.004) (0.002) (0.002)
Peacekeeper size −0.274 −0.274
(0.290) (0.202)
Troop size −0.228 −0.228
(0.267) (0.178)
Police size −0.094 −0.094
(0.117) (0.116)
Observers 0.081 0.081
(0.072) (0.060)
Troop-providers −0.004 −0.004 −0.004 −0.004
(0.008) (0.008) (0.006) (0.006)
Total violence t−1 −0.008 −0.013 −0.008 −0.013
(0.011) (0.012) (0.014) (0.016)
Time since mission’s onset −0.001 0.0004 −0.001 0.0004
(0.001) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001)
Constant 3.179 2.801 3.179 2.801

(2.998)
(3.050)
(2.212)
(2.181)
Observations 75 75 75 75
Adjusted R2 −0.019 −0.027 −0.019 −0.027
  1. * p < 0.1; ** p < 0.05; *** p < 0.01.

Finally, I replace trust sentiments with anger sentiments to check whether I can obtain the opposite results of trust sentiments (Table B4). As expected, contrary to the previous findings, the anger sentiments is found to be positively associated with peacekeepers’ fatality in the models where I report clustered standard errors.

Table B4:

Anger sentiments – negative binomial regression.

DV: peacekeeper fatality
No clustered SEs Clustered SEs
Peacekeeper fatality t−1 −0.013 −0.013
(0.054) (0.031)
Anger sentiments (as %) 4.619 4.667 4.619* 4.667*
(3.027) (3.025) (2.715) (2.727)
Troop size 0.949 0.868 0.949 0.868
(3.486) (3.486) (3.228) (3.191)
Police size −0.235 −0.195 −0.235 −0.195
(1.571) (1.583) (1.760) (1.802)
Observers 1.311 1.285 1.311* 1.285*
(0.984) (0.987) (0.721) (0.721)
Troop-providers −0.198* −0.205* −0.198* −0.205*
(0.103) (0.106) (0.115) (0.120)
Total violence t−1 −0.144 −0.137 −0.144 −0.137
(0.151) (0.153) (0.139) (0.139)
Time since mission’s onset 0.042 0.041 0.042* 0.041*
(0.028) (0.028) (0.024) (0.023)
Constant −7.047 −5.979 −7.047 −5.979

(40.019)
(40.059)
(40.304)
(39.769)
Observations 75 75 75 75
Akaike Inf. Crit. 270.955 272.902 270.955 272.902
  1. * p < 0.1; ** p < 0.05; *** p < 0.01.

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Received: 2022-03-31
Accepted: 2022-11-01
Published Online: 2022-11-17

© 2022 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

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