Ecology in politics: a multimodal eco-critical analysis of environmental discourse

5.2.1 Posts published after the second filling

The framing of the Ethiopian context emphasizes the role of the GERD as a catalyst for social and economic growth without posing any harm or threat to others. The first two Arabic posts for the Ethiopian Prime Minister were published on 22 July, 2021 following the second filling of the GERD^[1] and on 15 July 2023, following talks held on the GERD issue in Cairo between the Ethiopian Prime Minister and the Egyptian President Sissy.^[2] In both posts, Prime Minister Ali reassures the peoples of Egypt and Sudan that the GERD will not cause them any harm.

The Ethiopian Prime Minister adopts a cordial tone in the first sentence of the first post in which he directly addresses the peoples of Egypt and Sudan using the following vocative:

إلى أخوتي وأخواتي في دول المصب [To my brothers and sisters in the downstream countries]

The choice of Appreciation situates the addressees within their geographical location and context, implying enduring friendly relations between Ethiopia and Egypt and Sudan that would transcend the tension over the GERD’s filling in July 2021. This Appreciation is coupled with the affective behavioral processes below:

أود أن أطمئنكم مرة أخرى بأن هذا الملء سوف لن يؤدي بضرر لأي من بلداننا

[I would like to assure you once again that this filling will not cause harm to any of our countries]

The Prime Minister (the first Actor) asserts his authority to reassure the peoples of Egypt and Sudan regarding that there will be no potential negative impact for the GERD (the second Actor) on their water resources. The processes foreground a positive social esteem Judgment of the GERD in the post’s conclusion:

مكسبا ورمزا حقيقيا للنمو الاقتصادي والتعاون المشترك

[a real benefit and a symbol for economic growth and joint cooperation]

Judgment positions the GERD not only as a pivotal project fostering economic welfare and development in Ethiopia but also across neighboring states. Hence, the intricate dialog suggested by Appreciation, the affective behavioral processes, and the social esteem Judgment engages the peoples of Egypt and Sudan directly and addresses their concerns about the GERD’s potential risks. He seeks to replace anxiety and fear with optimism and a promise of a better future.

A similar message of reassurance is conveyed in the second Arabic post:

ستظل إثيوبيا تراعى هذه الأمانة وتشارك جيرانها هذه الهبة الربانية

[Ethiopia will guard and share with its neighbors this Divine gift]

ونؤكد لأخواننا بأن هذا الالتزام قد تعزز أكثر من أى وقت مضى

[We assure our brothers and sisters that this commitment is more pressing than any other time]

اثيوبيا شعبا وحكومة لن تلحق ضررا بأشقائها

[Ethiopia, the people and the government, will not cause their brothers and sisters any harm]

In these affective behavioral processes, Ethiopia assumes the role of the Actor, not merely as a geographical entity but also as a collective entity encompassing its state, people, and government. This portrayal imposes a moral obligation on Ethiopia to protect Egypt and Sudan from any potential harm resulting from the filling and operation of the GERD. Also, the use of positive Affect, underscored by the repetition of “brothers and sisters,” fosters a sense of fraternity and solidarity.

These interpersonal bonds are further strengthened through a historical reference to Abyssinia (ancient Ethiopian lands) during the Islamic era:

وإن هذه الهبة الربانية ستكون فائدتها للجميع أن قيم المسؤولية والعدالة التي تتميز بها أثيوبيا، قد وجدت اعترافا وتقديرا من سيدنا محمد -صلي الله عليه وسلم- عندما قال للصحابة: اذهبوا إلى أرض الحبشة فإن فيها ملكا لا يظلم عنده أحدا… وهو ما يتم تأكيده اليوم بأن اثيوبيا شعبا وحكومة، لن تلحق ضررا بأشقائها.

[And that this Divine gift will be of benefit to everyone. The values of responsibility and justice that characterize Ethiopia have been acknowledged and appreciated by Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) when he told his disciples: Go to the land of Abyssinia as its king never oppresses anyone… This is what is being asserted today that Ethiopia, people and government, will not harm its brothers and sisters.]

Ethiopia is the Actor in the affective behavioral process, “Ethiopia will not harm its brothers and sisters,” thereby committing itself once more to safeguard the downstream countries. Ethiopia also aligns itself with the principles of responsibility and justice, indicated by the passive voice in “have been acknowledged and appreciated.” The social sanction Judgment underscoring Ethiopia’s longstanding moral obligation to protect others is affirmed by Appreciation in “acknowledged and appreciated” and the reference to a historical and religious figure (Prophet Muhammad). This framing is characterized by timelessness, where the past and present converge to morally bind Ethiopia not only to protect Egypt but also to safeguard the Nile, described using positive Affect as “Divine gift” that promises development and benefit to Ethiopia and Africa as a whole.

5.2.2 Posts addressing the benefits of the GERD

In 2022, Prime Minister Ali published three posts. The first was on 20 January, which discusses the benefits of the GERD for Ethiopia and Africa.^[3] Ali utilizes Appreciation in the title, framing the GERD as “a site of cooperation,” where “cooperation” signals optimism for the future. The GERD is featured in the post as the Actor in several affective behavioral processes:

1. The GERD does not consume water

2. In Sudan, for example, the GERD provides ample protection against devastating floods….

3. It will help the Sudanese water infrastructure to be operated optimally as they receive regulated flow.

4. The GERD also brings more energy to the already interconnected systems of Sudan and Ethiopia as well as to others.

5. The GERD also helps to prevent future spillage that overtops the Aswan Dam.

6. Globally and in the Nile region, the GERD as a clean renewable energy source would help to reduce emission that could avoid up to 10.6 million tons of greenhouse gases….

7. The GERD has a potential to stabilize energy mix….

8. It will also enable affordable energy

These processes assert the GERD’s capabilities as an Actor and overlook any dispelling concerns, further reinforced by the interplay between present and future tenses, which underscores immediate outcomes and long-term aspirations.

Furthermore, Prime Minister Ali imbued the GERD with significant value through Appreciation in the following instances: “an ambition,” “modern economy,” “clean environment,” “resilient ecosystem,” “comparative advantage,” “good example,” “multiple benefits,” “the location ideal to maximize electricity generation,” “reducing floodings and augmenting dry flow,” “ample protection against devastating floods,” “more electricity,” “reliable water supply for people, agriculture, and the ecology,” “more energy,” “important role in meeting and increasing renewable energy generation share toward Sustainable Development (SDG) Goal 7 and better water management of Goal 6 of the SDGs, as well as meeting many targets of Africa’s Agenda 2063,” and “our three countries of Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan to nurture the narrative toward building peace, cooperation, mutual co-existence, and development of all our people without harming one another.” Appreciation of the values signified by the GERD, especially establishing peace and cooperation with other partners in the African region are asserted by numerating the benefits of this construction. The positive Affect indicated by the use of adjectives like “good,” “comparative,” “resilient,” and “clean” promote Appreciation as adjectives introduce the GERD as an opportunity for growth and investment rather than a threat, a framing that stimulate “cooperation.”

The second post in 2022 was on 22 February when Prime Minister Ali announced the operation of the GERD.^[4] The GERD is attributed agency as “Africa’s largest power generation renaissance dam” since it facilitates the implementation of Ethiopia’s developmental plan and meeting the standards set by SDGs 6 and 7. The GERD’s functional independence is clarified as an Actor albeit reliant on human efforts. Affect in phrases like: “the day of light for Ethiopia” and “the holiday of new year for Ethiopia” evokes Ethiopia’s optimism for the GERD’s contribution to solving electricity shortages—necessary for development marks the rebirth of contemporary Ethiopia that seeks to farewell destitution via the GERD. Finally, Ali concludes the post by “I congratulate all Ethiopians,” which emphasizes the beginning of a new phase in Ethiopia’s history. Through Appreciation, he expresses his positive evaluation of the GERD’s significance to national development as it is marked as a national day for them. Notably, Ali uses inclusive language to involve Ethiopia’s African partners:

1. This is a good news for our Ashagur and for those downstream countries who want to work with them and benefit together

2. This is good news for our continent as well as the downstream countries with whom we aspire to work together

As a Senser in affective mental processes, the downstream countries are promised a share in the GERD’s benefits; thus, it is regarded as a “site of cooperation.”

The last post follows the third filling of the GERD on 12 August 2022. It is written in Ethiopian, and Facebook Translator was used to generate the English version.^[5] Positive Affect evident in the festive tone suggested by “Congratulations” and “happy” affirms the veracity of the promised welfare and development, made by the Ethiopian government. Ali celebrates the fulfillment of the government’s promises of sustainability as he addresses “children of Abay,” thus asserting Ethiopia’s long-term developmental plan. This is further asserted by the social sanction Judgment in “successfully,” which implies a positive outcome and an achievement. It means that the aspired for standards are met while conforming to the socio-ecological framework. Completing the GERD “at the expected time” further highlights the successful implementation of a long-term investment for “the children of Abay,” the primary beneficiaries from the GERD and promises them a better future as well as operational progress and efficiency. It can, thus, be deduced that Ethiopia’s long-term development plan is in progress.

Focusing on expanding investment and development does not mean that the Prime Minister ignores the preservation of the ecosystem and the environment. Ali highlights to Abay’s children the GERD’s role in improving the ecosystem, evidenced in the affective behavioral process: “it reduces the destruction of resources, and the number of lives lost.” “It” refers to the Actor (GERD), that is obligated to preserve both resources and lives. This commitment is underscored by Appreciation in “beautiful appearance,” where the GERD is expected to generate electricity and enhance the environment’s aesthetics.

The GERD’s role once again involves the regional partners who have shared historical and geographical ties with Ethiopia:

1. When we want to get the benefit we deserve, we are also thinking that the other gifts of Abay – Sudan and Egypt will benefit from the river.

2. Just like the river Abay has connected the three countries for thousands of years, the dam that is built on it will enable us to coexist with our neighbors.

3. When we say let us get the benefit we deserve to get like Ethiopia Abaya’s other gifts – Sudan and Egypt should be used as a way to deliver them from the river.

4. Abaya river has been connecting three countries and making us live together for thousands of years, the link built on it will allow us to live with our neighbors.

Ali employs social esteem Judgment to stress the GERD’s capability to make growth a reality in the three countries. This is further promoted by positive Affect suggested by “benefit,” “other gifts of Abay,” “our neighbors,” “Abay’s other gifts,” “live together for thousands of years,” and “live with our neighbors,” which stresses Ethiopia’s commitment to establishing synergy and development in the whole region. This framing also demonstrates Ethiopia as proactive and cooperative neighbor that gives priority to regional cooperation over geopolitical considerations.

5.3.1 Egyptian cabinet posts

Ethiopia’s framing of the GERD promotes it as a catalyst for economic welfare for all the involved parties, Egypt, nevertheless, views the GERD as a threat that reduces its water share. Egypt’s concerns prompted it to escalate the whole matter to the United Nations Security Council in the Ministerial Cabinet’s post on 19 June 2020.^[6] This statement involves several affective behavioral processes in which Egypt is the Actor:

مصر تحيل أزمة سد النهضة الأثيوبي إلى مجلس الأمن بالأمم المتحدة

[Egypt refers the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam crisis to the United Nations Security Council.]

أعلنت جمهورية مصر العربية اليوم الجمعة الموافق ١٩ يونيو ٢٠٢٠ أنها تقدمت بطلب إلى مجلس الأمن بالأمم المتحدة حول سد النهضة الأثيوبي

[The Arab Republic of Egypt announced today, Friday, June 19, 2020, that it has submitted a request to the United Nations Security Council regarding the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, calling on the Council to intervene]

وقد اتخذت جمهورية مصر العربية هذا القرار

[The Arab Republic of Egypt has made this decision]

وتؤكد مصر مجددا على حرصها على التوصل إلى اتفاق يحقق مصالح الدول الثلاث

[Egypt reiterates its keenness to reach an agreement that achieves the interests of the three countries]

The Actor is given different naming styles. The official name of Egypt “Arab Republic of Egypt” underscores the formality associated with the referral to the Security Council as opposed to a less formal tone using the short name “Egypt,” upon discussing its readiness for negotiations with Ethiopia. The Ethiopian stance in the following instances is described using social sanction Judgment that reveals its stubbornness:

أزمة [crisis]

إجراءات أحادية [unilateral procedures]

تهدد الأمن والسلم الدوليين [threatening international peace and security]

تعثر المفاوضات [faltering of negotiations]

للمواقف الأثيوبية غير الإيجابية [the non-positive Ethiopian stances]

والذي قوبل بالرفض من أثيوبيا [that was rejected by Ethiopia]

ملء سد النهضة بشكل أحادي بالمخالفة لاتفاق إعلان المبادئ الموقع بين الدول الثلاث

[unilateral filling of the Renaissance Dam in violation of the Declaration of Principles, signed by the three states]

Social sanction Judgment depicts Ethiopia as a noncooperative partner and identifies the reasons behind Egypt’s fear. It gives a sense that Ethiopia’s messages of inclusion did not succeed in replacing fear with tranquility and legitimizes Egypt’s appeal to the Security Council to safeguard its water supplies.

Ethiopia proceeds the unilateral filling of the GERD, so the Egyptian Cabinet published a statement by MFA^[7] in 2021 to express its deepest concern to the effect of these actions. There is a principal affective behavioral process – “مصر ترفض أي إجراءات أحادية قد تتخذها إثيوبيا اتصالا بسد النهضة” [Egypt rejects any unilateral procedures taken by Ethiopia concerning the Renaissance Dam]—in which Egypt assumes the role of an Actor to assert its position against Ethiopia’s trespassing Egypt’s water resources. This is further ascertained by social sanction Judgment of the morality of the Ethiopian actions:

الاستمرار في ملء السد بشكل أحادي خلال موسم الفيضان

[to continue the unilateral filling of the Dam during flood season]

اعتزام إثيوبيا استكمال ملء سد النهضة حتى لو لم تصل الدول الثلاث إلى اتفاق حول ملء وتشغيل سد النهضة

[Ethiopia’s intention to continue filling the Renaissance Dam even if the three countries did not reach an agreement on the filling and operation of the Renaissance Dam]

سوء نية إثيوبيا وسعيها لإجهاض الجهود الجارية من قبل وسطاء دوليين وأفارقة من أجل حل أزمة سد النهضة

[Ethiopia’s bad faith and its attempt to abort the current efforts by international and African mediators to resolve the Renaissance Dam crisis]

فرض الأمر الواقع على دولتي المصب

[impose the status quo on the downstream countries]

إلا أن الجانب الإثيوبي انتهج سياسة تقوم على المماطلة والتسويف أدت إلى فشل كافة مسارات المفاوضات

[the Ethiopian side adopted a policy based on procrastination, which led to the failure of all negotiations paths]

تصرف غير مسئول [an irresponsible action]

مخالفة صريحة لأحكام اتفاق إعلان المبادئ

[a clear violation of the Declaration of Principles Agreement]

It is evident from these instances that Ethiopia is unwilling to reach an agreement in contrast to praising Egypt’s genuine interest in pursuing the negotiation track through social esteem Judgment: “الدولة المصرية ملتزمة بالحفاظ على حقوق مصر ومصالحها المائية وحمياتها ومنع إيقاع الضرر بها صوناً لمقدرات الشعب المصري” (The Egyptian state is committed to safeguarding Egypt’s right and water resources to protect it from any danger to preserve the destiny of the Egyptian people). The use of Judgment in such a way introduces a positive image of Egypt’s attitude toward negotiations to establish good connections with the international community to support its claim; nonetheless, it showcases Ethiopia’s constant violation of all the agreements and insistence on ignoring Egypt’s concerns.

5.3.2 Ministry of foreign affairs posts

The MFA published two posts in 2022: the first on 20 February^[8] and the second on 29 July.^[9] These posts are, in fact, press statements revealing Egypt’s reaction to the unilateral filling of the GERD. The first post entails social sanction Judgment:

تؤكد جمهورية مصر العربية على أن هذه الخطوة تُعد إمعاناً من الجانب الإثيوبي في خرق التزاماته بمقتضى اتفاق إعلان المبادئ لسنة ٢٠١٥، الموقع من قِبَل رئيس الوزراء الإثيوبي.

[The Arab Republic of Egypt stresses that this act constitutes a further violation by the Ethiopian side of its obligations under the 2015 Declaration of Principles agreement, signed by the Ethiopian Prime Minister.]

This is another instance of lack of propriety in which Egypt (using its official name) which criticizes Ethiopia’s violation of the 2015 Declaration, signifying potential dangers. In the second post, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sameh Shoukry, announced that he sent a letter to the Security Council to seek intervention after the unilateral filling of the Dam. Egypt’s objection is articulated again by social sanction Judgment:

هو ما يعد مخالفة صريحة لاتفاق إعلان المبادئ المبرم عام 2015 وانتهاكاً جسيماً لقواعد القانون الدولي واجبة التطبيق، والتي تلزم إثيوبيا، بوصفها دولة المنبع، بعدم الإضرار بحقوق دول المصب

[This is considered a clear violation to the 2015 Declaration of Principles and a serious violation to the applicable rules of international law which obligate Ethiopia as an upstream country not to harm the right of downstream countries.]

إلا أن إثيوبيا قد أفشلت كافة الجهود والمساعي التي بذلت من أجل حل هذه الأزمة

[however, Ethiopia has failed all the efforts and endeavors made to resolve the conflict]

Lack of propriety through the repetition of “violation” to refer to Ethiopia’s actions, foreshadowing Ethiopia’s role in failing “all the efforts and endeavors made to resolve the conflict,” thus underscoring the illegitimacy of Ethiopia’s actions and violation of the 2015 Declaration of Principles. It also reveals two different attitudes toward the GERD: Egypt’s attitude denotes fear and deep concern for decrease in water share and keenness on respecting the signed agreement. On the other side, Ethiopia continues to violate the agreements and overlooks any threat to the downstream countries for the sake of Ethiopia’s development.

In the rest of the post, Egypt asserts its consequential reaction toward the Ethiopian actions. Egypt is presented as the principal Actor in three affective behavioral processes:

إلا أن الدولة المصرية لن تتهاون مع أي مساس بحقوقها أو أمنها المائي أو أي تهديد لمقدرات الشعب المصري الذي يمثل نهر النيل شريان الحياة الأوحد له

[however, the Egyptian state will not tolerate any infringement on its rights or water security or any threat to the destiny of the Egyptian people, for whom the Nile represents their only vein of life]

وتُشدِّد مصر على مطالبتها لإثيوبيا بالتحلي بالمسؤولية والامتثال لقواعد القانون الدولي والمبادئ الحاكمة للمجاري المائية عابرة الدول، وفي مقدمتها تجنب الضرر ذي الشأن، وتُحملها كامل المسؤولية عن أي ضرر ذي شأن على المصالح المصرية قد ينجم عن انتهاك إثيوبيا لالتزاماتها المُشار إليها

[Egypt stresses its demand that Ethiopia should be responsible and comply with the rules of international law and the principles governing transnational water courses, foremost among which is avoiding significant harm, and holds it fully responsible for any significant harm to Egyptian interests that may result from Ethiopia’s violation of its aforementioned obligations.]

كما تحتفظ جمهورية مصر العربية بحقها الشرعي المكفول في ميثاق الأمم المتحدة باتخاذ كافة الإجراءات اللازمة لضمان وحماية أمنها القومي، بما في ذلك إزاء أية مخاطر قد تتسبب بها مستقبلاً الإجراءات الأحادية الإثيوبية

[The Arab Republic of Egypt also reserves its legitimate right guaranteed in the United Nations Charter to take all necessary measures to ensure and protect its national security, including against any risks that may be caused in the future by Ethiopian unilateral measures.]

The Actor is given agency through several naming practices, ranging from the most informal “Egypt” in its request to Ethiopia to stop harming the water resources to the semi-formal name “the Egyptian state” through which Egypt asserts its capability to take action, if necessary, to the most formal address form “The Arab Republic of Egypt” associated with the reference to Egypt’s right to seek the intervention of the Security Council to end the breach of the 2015 Declaration. The use of Appreciation on describing the Nile as the “only vein of life” signals its value to Egyptians, being its only water resource. Therefore, it reflects Egypt’s sense of resolve and determination to exercise its control over it.

Finally, the two posts published in 2023 follows the unilateral fourth filling of the GERD, on 10 September,^[10] and the failure of the last stage of negotiations on 19 December.^[11] In the first post, social sanction Judgment of lack of propriety is used in “فإن ذلك يعد استمرارا من جانب إثيوبيا في انتهاك إعلان المبادئ الموقع بين مصر وإثيوبيا والسودان عام ٢٠١٥” [This is considered a continuation by Ethiopia in violating the Declaration of Principles, signed between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan in 2015], further elaborated by negative Affect suggested by “آثار سلبية” [negative effects] and “عبئاً” [burden] to focus on the drastic consequences of Ethiopia’s actions and reveal the vulnerability of Egypt in facing water shortage threat. In addition, the last post depicts Egypt, through affective behavioral processes, as an Actor: “وتؤكد جمهورية مصر العربية أنها سوف تراقب عن كثب عملية ملء وتشغيل سد النهضة” (Egypt affirms that it will closely monitor the filling and operation of the GERD) and “مصر تحتفظ بحقها المكفول بموجب المواثيق الدولية للدفاع عن أمنها المائي والقومي في حاله تعرضه للضرر” (Egypt reserves its right, in accordance with international charters and accords, to defend its water and national security in case of being harmed to proclaim Egypt’s condemnation to Ethiopia’s violation of the 2015 Declaration and the failure of the last stage of the negotiations). It also validates its claim as a powerful nation to protect its interests.