The Gulf Oil Spill and Economic Impacts: Extending the National Interstate Economic Model (NIEMO) to Account for Induced Impacts
-
JiYoung Park
,
James E. Moore II
Abstract
There has been considerable controversy about the economic impacts of the federal Gulf deepwater oil drilling suspensions following the oil spill. In this study, we elaborate and apply the National Interstate Economic Model (NIEMO) to estimate direct, indirect and induced economic losses in each of the 50 states (and the District of Columbia). We simulate the effects of three separate, 6-month direct loss scenarios of media guestimates reported by several local sources. While the traditional NIEMO application only captured direct and indirect impacts, we developed a new module to estimate local induced impacts as well. This methodology could be applied to any similar scenario. Our model extension and application suggest a useful approach to tasks such as the one assigned to Gulf Coast Claims Facility administrator Kenneth Feinberg. The terror threat, as well as the possibility of other mishaps and natural disasters, suggests that this is always a serious possibility that these sorts of calculations will have to be made. Our innovation was to estimate the Type-II effects in the impacted states and to trace their trade effects through the NIEMO system with only minor methodological elaborations.
5 Appendix
Appendix: I IMPLAN-to-NAICS-to-USC sector conversions using BEA’s state GDP of 2008 for a 6-month period.
i. Oil, Louisiana.
| USC Sector (IMPLAN code) | IMPLAN Sector | NAICS 2002 Code | Direct |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC10 (19) | 19, 142, 145, 146 | 211, 32411, 324191, 324199 | $2.3133B |
Damage: 10% of Oil Extraction Relating Industries of LA GDP.
Source: http://www.economy.com/dismal/article_free.asp?cid=199173&src=msnbc.
ii. Seafood, Louisiana (the closest we can get to shrimps and oysters).
| USC Sector (IMPLAN Code) | IMPLAN Sector | NAICS 2002 Code | Direct |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC1 (16) | 16, 71 | 1141, 3117 | $0.0972B |
Damage: 10% of Fishing Relating Industries of LA GDP.
Source: http://www.economy.com/dismal/article_free.asp?cid=199173&src=msnbc.
iii. Tourism and tourist-related activities, Florida. Refer to the direct impact calculation procedure for tourism and related industries applied in Richardson et al. (2007) and Gordon et al. (2007).
| USC Sector (IMPLAN Code) | IMPLAN Sector | NAICS 2002 Code | Direct | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC33 (391) | 391, 395, 397 | 481, 485, 487 | $1.7622B | Gordon et al. (2007), Richards et al. (2007) |
| USC35 (405) | 405, 408~412 | 445, 448~454 | $8.0930B | |
| USC44 (475) | 475~478 | 712, 71394, 71395, 7131 | $1.8525B | |
| USC45 (479) | 479~481 | 72111, 72112, 72119, 7212, 7213, 722 | $4.5390B | |
| Total | $16.2467B |
Damage: 30% of Tourism Relating Industries of FL GDP.
Source: http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/01/gulf_oil_spill_more_a_mancause.html
http://www.gulfoilspilllitigationgroup.com/blog/tag/gulf-coast-tourism/
Appendix II: Definitions for USC sector system.
| USC Sector | Description |
|---|---|
| 1 | Live animals and live fish and meat, fish, seafood, and their preparations |
| 2 | Cereal grains and other agricultural products except for animal feed |
| 3 | Animal feed and products of animal origin, n.e.c. |
| 4 | Milled grain products and preparations, and bakery products |
| 5 | Other prepared foodstuffs and fats and oils |
| 6 | Alcoholic beverages |
| 7 | Tobacco products |
| 8 | Nonmetallic minerals (Monumental or building stone, natural sands, gravel and crushed stone, n.e.c.) |
| 9 | Metallic ores and concentrates |
| 10 | Coal and petroleum products (Coal and fuel oils, n.e.c.) |
| 11 | Basic chemicals |
| 12 | Pharmaceutical products |
| 13 | Fertilizers |
| 14 | Chemical products and preparations, n.e.c. |
| 15 | Plastics and rubber |
| 16 | Logs and other wood in the rough and Wood products |
| 17 | Pulp, newsprint, paper, and paperboard and paper or paperboard articles |
| 18 | Printed products |
| 19 | Textiles, leather, and articles of textiles or leather |
| 20 | Nonmetallic mineral products |
| 21 | Base metal in primary or semi-finished forms and in finished basic shapes |
| 22 | Articles of base metal |
| 23 | Machinery |
| 24 | Electronic and other electrical equipment and components, and office equipment |
| 25 | Motorized and other vehicles (including parts) |
| 26 | Transportation equipment, n.e.c. |
| 27 | Precision instruments and apparatus |
| 28 | Furniture, mattresses and mattress supports, lamps, lighting fittings, and illuminated signs |
| 29 | Miscellaneous manufactured products, scrap, mixed freight, and commodity unknown |
| 30 | Utility |
| 31 | Construction |
| 32 | Wholesale trade |
| 33 | Transportation |
| 34 | Postal and warehousing |
| 35 | Retail trade |
| 36 | Broadcasting and information services |
| 37 | Finance and insurance |
| 38 | Real estate and rental and leasing |
| 39 | Professional, scientific, and technical services |
| 40 | Management of companies and enterprises |
| 41 | Administrative support and waste management |
| 42 | Education services |
| 43 | Health care and social assistances |
| 44 | Arts, entertainment, and recreation |
| 45 | Accommodation and food services |
| 46 | Public administration |
| 47 | Other services except public administration |
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©2013 by Walter de Gruyter Berlin Boston
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- Masthead
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- Integrating Federal Approaches to Post-Cyber Incident Mitigation
- Cybersecurity and US Legislative Efforts to address Cybercrime
- The Military’s Response to Domestic CBRNE Incidents
- Building Public Health Preparedness and Food and Agriculture Defense Capabilities Using Whole Community and One Health Concepts
- Situated Response and Learning of Distributed Bushfire Coordinating Teams
- A Critical Examination of the Assumptions Regarding Centralized Coordination in Large-Scale Emergency Situations
- “Of Gods and Men”: Selected Print Media Coverage of Natural Disasters and Industrial Failures in Three Westminster Countries
- Spontaneous Planning after the San Bruno Gas Pipeline Explosion: A Case Study of Anticipation and Improvisation during Response and Recovery Operations
- Understanding Incident Response to Unplanned Releases at Chemical Facilities
- A Study on the Responsiveness of Local Health Departments that Use Facebook
- Texas takes on the TSA: The Constitutional Fight over Airport Security
- The Gulf Oil Spill and Economic Impacts: Extending the National Interstate Economic Model (NIEMO) to Account for Induced Impacts
- The Economic Value of Water: Providing Confidence and Context to FEMA’s Methodology
- Diffusion of Emergency Information during a Crisis within a University
- Resilience Building Policies and their Influence in Crisis Prevention, Absorption and Recovery
- Communication and News
- A Practitioner-Researcher Partnership to Develop and Deliver Operational Value of Threat, Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Training to meet the Requirements of Emergency Responders
- Regional Public-Private Interoperable Communications for Catastrophic Events Using a Cloud Computing Based Portal
- It’s Never Too Late: Restructuring the Department of Homeland Security’s Regional Framework
- Finding the New High Ground in Cyber War: Malware as an Instrument of War
- Opinions
- Cybersecurity and Emergency Management: Encryption and the Inability to Communicate
- Assessing the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards after 5 Years: Achievements, Challenges, and Risks Ahead
- Book Review
- Emergency Management: The American Experience 1900–2010 (2nd Edition)
Articles in the same Issue
- Masthead
- Masthead
- Research Articles
- Integrating Federal Approaches to Post-Cyber Incident Mitigation
- Cybersecurity and US Legislative Efforts to address Cybercrime
- The Military’s Response to Domestic CBRNE Incidents
- Building Public Health Preparedness and Food and Agriculture Defense Capabilities Using Whole Community and One Health Concepts
- Situated Response and Learning of Distributed Bushfire Coordinating Teams
- A Critical Examination of the Assumptions Regarding Centralized Coordination in Large-Scale Emergency Situations
- “Of Gods and Men”: Selected Print Media Coverage of Natural Disasters and Industrial Failures in Three Westminster Countries
- Spontaneous Planning after the San Bruno Gas Pipeline Explosion: A Case Study of Anticipation and Improvisation during Response and Recovery Operations
- Understanding Incident Response to Unplanned Releases at Chemical Facilities
- A Study on the Responsiveness of Local Health Departments that Use Facebook
- Texas takes on the TSA: The Constitutional Fight over Airport Security
- The Gulf Oil Spill and Economic Impacts: Extending the National Interstate Economic Model (NIEMO) to Account for Induced Impacts
- The Economic Value of Water: Providing Confidence and Context to FEMA’s Methodology
- Diffusion of Emergency Information during a Crisis within a University
- Resilience Building Policies and their Influence in Crisis Prevention, Absorption and Recovery
- Communication and News
- A Practitioner-Researcher Partnership to Develop and Deliver Operational Value of Threat, Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Training to meet the Requirements of Emergency Responders
- Regional Public-Private Interoperable Communications for Catastrophic Events Using a Cloud Computing Based Portal
- It’s Never Too Late: Restructuring the Department of Homeland Security’s Regional Framework
- Finding the New High Ground in Cyber War: Malware as an Instrument of War
- Opinions
- Cybersecurity and Emergency Management: Encryption and the Inability to Communicate
- Assessing the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards after 5 Years: Achievements, Challenges, and Risks Ahead
- Book Review
- Emergency Management: The American Experience 1900–2010 (2nd Edition)
