What Predicts the Growth of Small Firms? Evidence from Tanzanian Commercial Loan Data
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Mia Ellis
und
Sarah Shaukat
Abstract
Not all firms have equal capacity to absorb productive credit. Identifying those with higher potential may have large consequences for productivity. We collect detailed survey data on small- and medium-sized Tanzanian firms who borrow from a large commercial bank, which in turn raises funds via international capital markets. Using machine learning methods to identify predictors of loan growth, we document, first, that we achieve high rates of predictive power. Second, “soft” information (entrepreneurs’ motivations for entrepreneurship and constraints faced) has predictive power over and above administrative data (sector, age, etc.). Third, there is a different and larger set of predictors for women than men, consistent with greater barriers to efficient capital allocation among female entrepreneurs.
Funding source: International Growth Center
Award Identifier / Grant number: Ref: 1-VCC-VTZA-VXXXX-40431
Acknowledgement
We are grateful to the National Microfinance Bank of Tanzania and its staff who made this research possible, especially Ineke Bussemaker, Richard Donatus, James Maiteron, Dionys Msavila, and Beatrice Mwambije. The authors also thank Josaphat Kweka (Talanta International, Economic and Social Research Foundation) for his efforts in-country, including facilitating the focus groups and survey work. We also acknowledge the excellent work of Ideas in Action, led by Samson Kiware, for their enumeration of the firm survey. We thank the International Growth Centre (IGC) and IFPRI-led CGIAR’s research program Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) for support. We thank seminar audiences at CSAE, Tufts, the IPA Entrepreneurship and Private Sector Development working group, the Gendered Effects of Globalization and Development conference, and especially Ama Baafra Abeberese for helpful comments.
Appendix A: Focus Groups
Below we list the set of 11 questions that were used to guide the focus group discussions. These meetings were semi structured and as such, different meetings focused on somewhat different topics. Therefore, some questions were not asked in some of the sessions and some questions were not asked precisely as phrased below.
What line of business are you in? Have your business activities changed at all since you started your business, and if so, how?
How many years have you been in this business?
What prompted you to start this business?
How have loans facilitated your business? For example, do you borrow money to finance working capital or investment or both?
Do you feel that you have been able to borrow as much as you have needed for your business? Or, do you feel that your business would be more successful if you were able to take larger or different loans? If you feel that your business would be more successful if you were able to take larger or different loans, please explain what kind of different loan would benefit you, and how?
When did you first take a commercial loan, and from where? What motivated you to take this loan?
Have you ever worked with SIDO? Why or why not and what services did SIDO provide for your business?
How many employees work for you now? How many employees did you have when you started the business?
Do you have plans to grow your business? If yes, please explain. If no, why not?
What do you see as the top three biggest limitations on growing your business? That is, are there any missing pieces, which, if they were available, you could be able to grow your business or grow it faster than you currently are able to? These could include limitations related to getting loans, hiring the right employees, skills you wish you could acquire, etc. (If you do not feel there are any big limitations, that is also helpful to know.)
Are there any public or private organizations which have been especially helpful to your business? Explain.
Appendix B: Sampling
In addition to using administrative loans data to classify borrowers into two groups and conducting focus groups, we conducted a detailed survey covering high and low/no growth firm owners in Dar es Salaam from December 2019 to February 2020. Out of the 464 firm owners in our potential sample for this study, we successfully interviewed 258 firm owners for an overall coverage rate of 56 %. Of those not surveyed, 46 percent were unreachable, 15 percent refused to be surveyed, 12 percent were scheduled but did not take place because we met our desired sample size, 8 percent were no longer NMB customers, 8 percent reported that the business closed, and 6 percent had relocated outside of Dar es Salaam. The remaining few were not surveyed because the business shifted from Dar es Salaam, or the firm owner was deceased, defaulted, or hospitalized. Therefore, the sample for this study includes 137 high-growth firm owners (53.1 % of the surveyed sample) and 121 low/no-growth firm owners (46.9 % of the surveyed sample). We find that the coverage rate is not differential across the samples with high-growth and low/no-growth firm owners (p-value 0.238). As each firm owner could report answers for multiple businesses in our survey, we have detailed data on 306 small- and medium-sized firms across the 258 firm owners.
Appendix C: LASSO Cleaning Procedure
Before proceeding with the analysis, we apply a cleaning/transforming procedure to all potential covariates. First, we convert all variables (except continuous variables) to indicator variables and square each continuous variable to allow for non-linearities. We generate missing dummies for variables with missing information and replace the missing values with zero. Next, we drop variables that have no variation. Moreover, we add two-way interactions of all variables and drop perfectly collinear ones, and lastly, standardize all the variables by subtracting the mean and dividing by the standard deviation.
Appendix D: List of all Variables
Tables D.1–D.3
List of all variables.
| FIRM OWNER LEVEL VARIABLES | ||
| Female | Past business(es) closed due to: | Use of business profits: |
| Owner’s age | High competition from other small firms | To invest in equipment |
| Owner has primary education | High competition from other large firms | For expanding business |
| Owner has some primary education | Low demand for products | To invest in buildings for business |
| Owner has some secondary education | High cost of inputs | To buy a vehicle |
| Owner has secondary education | Lack of inputs | To build/improve houses |
| Owner has technical training | Lack/poor market for products | To invest in land |
| Owner has a university degree | Harassment from authorities | To invest in livestock |
| Owner has any other occupation currently | Lack of proper management skills | To purchase more stock |
| Owner’s primary occupation is running business(es) | Greater opportunities in another sector | To start a new business |
| Owner currently emp. in a formal pvt. business | Changing market structure | For HH expenses/school fees, etc. |
| Owner currently emp. in an informal pvt. business | Profits enabled owner to diversify | For a retirement plan |
| Owner currently emp. in a family enterprise | Low prices for products sold | |
| Owner currently emp. by the government | Insufficient working capital | Negative external shocks: |
| Owner ever emp. in a formal pvt. business | Due to weather | Ever bought insurance for the business |
| Owner ever emp. in an informal pvt. business | Due to equipment breakdown | Ever experienced a significant theft |
| Owner ever emp. in a family enterprise | Business workspace become unavailable | Experienced sig. theft by a relative |
| Owner ever emp. by the government | Lost skilled workers | Experienced sig. theft by a worker |
| Misappropriation by workers | Experienced sig. theft by a partner | |
| Owner’s motivation to be an entrepreneur: | Due to problems related to utilities | Experienced sig. theft by a friend |
| Lost a previous job | Experienced sig. theft by another business | |
| Could not find job elsewhere | Motivation to start add. businesses: | Experienced sig. theft by a stranger |
| To support himself/herself and family | To diversity income | |
| To try out a business idea | Wanted to make more money | |
| Believe can make more money | Saw a good opportunity | Steps to recover from a theft: |
| No other means for survival | Other businesses struggling | Sell business assets |
| Parents/relatives were in business | Encouraged by relatives/friends | Sell personal assets |
| Saw a good opportunity | Wanted to transition to a new activity | Reduce business expenses |
| Always wanted to have own business | Easy, passive form of income | Borrow money from family/friends |
| Encouraged by friends and relatives | Get a bank loan | |
| To supplement income | Owner plans to operate multiple businesses | |
| Flexible hours | Loans taken in last 5 years | Taken any actions to prevent theft |
| Total loan amount in last 5 years | Ever experienced a fire | |
| Owner’s other sources of income: | Avg. loan amount in last 5 years | Experienced demolitions from construction |
| No other sources of income | Use loan to open a new branch | Ever experienced a traffic accident |
| Spouse’s earnings | Use loan to buy more stock | Products were banned |
| Family contributions/remittances | Use loan to buy a house | |
| Pension | Use loan to purchase a machine | Steps to recover from ext. shocks: |
| Salary from other employment | Use loan to pay school fees | Sell business assets |
| Salary from other business | Use collateral for loans | Sell personal assets |
| Subletting of business premise | Use house as collateral | Reduce business expenses |
| Subletting of house | Use own car as collateral | Borrow money from family/friends |
| Farming/agriculture | Use business premises as collateral | Get a bank loan |
| Use business equipment as collateral | ||
| Average household (HH) monthly income | Value of available collateral | Owner keeps written financial records |
| Average HH annual income | %age of loans used for working capital | Owner keeps records of daily sales |
| Percentage of HH income from business | %age of loans used for personal expenses | Owner keeps records of payments to workers |
| %age of loans used for investment | Owner keeps records of utility payments | |
| House and car ownership: | Owner keeps records of rental payments | |
| Owner owns a house | Procedure for acquiring a loan: | Owner keeps records of interest payments |
| Houses owned | Submit company’s performance record | Owner keeps records of purchases of material |
| Houses owned before starting business | Submit audited performance record | |
| Have title deed for house(s) | Submit evidence of business registration | Networks: |
| House used by immediate family | Get community member to vouch | Member of any business association |
| House used by extended family | Get an official to vouch | Pay membership fee |
| House rented out | Get signature from Mjumbe (messenger) | Membership fee amount (in TZS) |
| House used as collateral for loans | Get signature from the local gov. | Frequency of paying membership fee |
| Owner owns a car | Interest rate is too high | |
| Had car before starting current business | Challenges with borrowing: | Motivation to join networks: |
| Use own car to get around | Documentation is in English | To learn from other entrepreneurs |
| Have a personal driver | Too many steps | Get support on a specific issue |
| Use taxi to get around | Bribery to get signatures | Get direct benefits from membership |
| Use bicycle/motorcycle taxis to get around | Privacy concerns | As similar business are members too |
| Use minibus share taxis to get around | Property not counted as collateral w/o deed | |
| Walk to get around | Receive less than requested amount | Association met this year |
| Duration | Frequency of association meetings | |
| Owner struggles to pay for food | Preparing written accounts | |
| Owner struggles to pay for water | Discussion at meetings about: | |
| Owner struggles to pay for medical treatment | Use loan only for personal expenses | Issues with suppliers |
| Owner struggles to pay for electricity | Use loan for some personal exp. | Issues with customers |
| Owner struggles to pay rent for home | Use loan for different business | Marketing strategies |
| Owner struggles to pay children school fees | Loan source: Akiba | Ways to improve product/service quality |
| Owner never struggles to pay | Loan source: CRDB | Borrowing from banks |
| Loan source: NMB only | Management strategies | |
| Owner has operated any past businesses | Used loan for buying a house | Issues related to employees |
| Number of past businesses | Used loan for purchasing land | Ways to deal with competition |
| Number of years since first business | Used loan for refurbishing house | Issues related to the business environment |
| Used loan for purchasing vehicle | ||
| Type of first or any business: | Used loan for children school fees | Owner not part of a network because: |
| Manufacturing | Used loan for wedding/funeral exp. | Too costly |
| Construction | Owner has a plan for how to use loan | Not provide any benefits |
| Retail | Owner member of NMB business club | Has no time to actively participate |
| Services | Owner attended NMB business training | Get better support from personal networks |
| Wholesale | Owner uses loans from family/friends | Did not want to |
| Agriculture | Owner uses loans from microfin. orgs. | |
| Agricultural processing | Borrowed from SIDO | Owner has informal personal networks |
| Bar | Bought goods or equipment from SIDO | Number of people in the personal networks |
| Number of current businesses | Received training or advice from SIDO | Number of personal networks |
| Attitudes & aspirations | FIRM LEVEL VARIABLES | Owner travels far to purchase products |
| Consider leaving business for a salaried job | Owner started business himself/herself | Owner makes purchases from outside Dar |
| Willing to sell the business | Owner took business from others | Does not purchase inputs from outside Dar |
| Owner would consider selling business if: | Owner acquired business from family | Number of suppliers |
| Offered a full-time job | Owner acquired business from friend | Frequency of purchasing from suppliers |
| Offered to be partner/owner at the company | Owner acquired business from a bus. person | Firm uses credit to pay for supplies |
| Buyer paid back business assets at mkt prices | Owner acquired business for free | Duration allowed by suppliers for repayment |
| Buyer paid a certain amount | Owner bought the business | Interest rate charged for credit payments |
| Amount the buyer would pay to buy (in TZS) | Firm runs full-time | |
| Not sell business under any circumstances | Product quality | |
| Firm type: | Discuss quality issues with suppliers | |
| Owner views business as growing | Manufacturing | Satisfied with quality of inputs |
| Owner views business environment as better | Construction | Changed suppliers due to quality issues |
| Owner expects business env. to improve in future | Retail | Discuss quality issues with customers |
| Owner has plans for expanding business | Services | Customers satisfied with product quality |
| Wholesale | Taken actions to improve quality | |
| Owner plans to expand business by: | Agriculture | |
| Owner plans to hire more workers | Agricultural processing | Business costs, sales, and profits |
| Owner plans to open another branch or shop | Bar | Business affected by seasonality |
| Owner plans to increase variety of prods/services | Lodge | Firm hires workers during good months |
| Owner plans to purchase more equipment | Firm increases prices in good months | |
| Owner plans to purchase a vehicle | Reasons for starting the business | Firm/owners works more in good months |
| Experience in similar line of business | Firm buys more inputs in good months | |
| Owner has taken steps to achieve expansion goals | Friends/relatives in similar business | Number of workers hired in good months |
| Owner plans to diversify into another activity | Saw others succeed in similar business | Firm reduces workers during bad months |
| Owner plans to quit open a different business | To fill the gap caused by unmet demand | Firm reduces prices in bad months |
| Owner has no plans to change business activities | Viewed the market demand as reliable | Allocate time to other tasks in bad months |
| Due to owner’s startup capital constraints | Number of workers reduced in bad months | |
| Owner judges the business environment by: | No apparent reason | Number of workers kept in bad months |
| Customer demand | Number of good months for business | |
| Level of competition | Age of the business | Number of bad months for business |
| Prices charged by the business | Start-up cost (in TZS) | Number of average months for business |
| Cost of inputs/materials | Average revenue in good months | |
| Cost of rent/land | Sources of start-up capital | Average revenue in bad months |
| Taxes | Own funds or savings (inc. %) | Average revenue in average months |
| Burden of government regulation | Loans or gifts from family/friends (inc. %) | Average costs in good months |
| Access to loans | A commercial bank loan (inc. %) | Average costs in bad months |
| Money from non-bank financial insts. (inc. %) | Average costs in average months | |
| Reasons for decline in business env.: | Average profit in a good month | |
| Less demand for the product | If no funding available, owner would: | Average profit in a bad month |
| Economy overall is in decline | Have started at a smaller scale | Average profit in an average month |
| Government regulation/tax burden is worse | Have found another source of funding | |
| Too much competition from other businesses | Opened another type of business | Expenses during an average month for: |
| Sought employment instead | Purchase of goods, inputs, services | |
| Reasons for imp. in business env.: | Purchase of machinery/equipment | |
| More demand for the product | Firms customers are: | Wages of labor |
| Economy overall is improving | Individuals/households/farmers | Transport |
| Government regulation/tax burden is better | Small traders in the area/town | Fertilizer/other farm input |
| Less competition from other small businesses | Large traders in the area/town | Insurance |
| Small traders outside the area/town | Finance/loans (to repay loans) | |
| Business problems faced currently: | Large traders outside the area/town | Rent for premises |
| Having to keep the prices low | Large enterprise other than traders | Mobile phone costs |
| Insufficient working capital | Export market/outside the country | Maintenance and repair |
| Insufficient market access | Government | Water, electricity, and other utilities |
| Lack of proper working space | Co-operative | |
| Lack of skilled workers | Firm’s profits have increased over last year | |
| Lack of trusted worker | Firm meets the customers at: | Profits increased due to higher demand |
| Lack of management skills | At the place of business | Profits increased due to lower costs of inputs |
| At a market | Profits increased due to charging higher prices | |
| External challenges currently: | At the customer’s residence | Profits increased as business got bigger |
| Low demand for owner’s products or services | At customer’s establishment | Profits increased due to lower competition |
| High competition from other businesses | Profits decreased due to lower demand | |
| High cost of inputs | Owner travels far to sell products | Profits decreased due to higher costs of inputs |
| Access to or costs of finance/credit | Owner transports the goods outside Dar | Profits decreased due to charging lower prices |
| Harassment from authorities | Owner does not sell products outside Dar | Profits decreased as business got smaller |
| Shortage of inputs | Average number of customers per day | Profits decreased due to more competition |
| Lack of access to utilities | Business comes from repeat clients only | |
| Poor roads/access to business | Faces problems with delayed payments | Business assets |
| Restrictive laws | Asset value: land (undeveloped land) | |
| Corruption Owner | Dealing with non-payment: | Asset value: residential buildings |
| Crime, theft, disorder | Do nothing | Asset value: non-residential buildings |
| Business licensing and permits | Refuse to give credit in future | Asset value: machinery and other equipment |
| Borrow to meet the shortfall | Asset value: electricity generation equipment | |
| Problems when started business: | Hold back on paying for expenses | Asset value: transport equipment |
| Low demand for owner’s products or services | Sell assets | Asset value: furniture and office equipment |
| High competition from other businesses | Asset value: ICT equipment | |
| High cost of inputs | Firm’s suppliers are: | Value of fixed assets increased over last year |
| Having to keep the prices low | Individuals/households (not farmers) | Value of business stocks |
| Insufficient working capital | Individual farmers | Value of business stocks increased over last year |
| Access to or costs of finance/credit | Commercial farms | |
| Insufficient market access | Small traders in the area/town | Business location |
| Harassment from authorities | Large traders in the area/town | In the home |
| Shortage of inputs | Small traders outside the area/town | In a traditional market place |
| Lack of proper working space | Large traders outside the area/town | Along roadside or path |
| Lack of skilled workers | Small enterprises other than traders | In a formal commercial area |
| Lack of trusted worker | Large enterprise other than traders | In a formal industrial site |
| Lack of access to utilities | Suppliers outside the country | Business is mobile |
| Poor roads/access to business | Government | On a farm |
| Lack of management skills | Co-operative | District dummies for business location (5) |
| Restrictive laws | Ward dummies for business location (70) | |
| Corruption | Firm meets suppliers at: | |
| Crime, theft, disorder | At the place of business | Reason for current location: |
| Business licensing and permits | At a market | Close to owner’s home |
| At supplier’s residence | Due to good infrastructure | |
| District dummies for owner location (5) | At supplier’s establishment | Close to customers |
| Ward dummies for owner’s location (59) | Required workers are in the area |
| Close to important suppliers/raw materials | Ever received technical support/advice |
| Rent/land prices are cheap | Received advice from: |
| Environment is dynamic/close to other successful firms | Customers |
| Type of nearby businesses: | Suppliers |
| Other formal businesses in the same activity | Small firms |
| Other formal businesses in different activities | Large firms |
| Informal businesses in same activity | A business development organization |
| Informal businesses in different activities | A lender |
| No other businesses nearby | The government |
| Family or friends | |
| Firm has ever changed location | Nature of support or advice: |
| Reasons for changing location: | Advice to improve products or services |
| Needed a bigger place | Advice to upgrade managerial practices |
| Rent was too high | Advice to change organizational structure |
| Wanted to be closer to markets/customers | Advice on how to market goods or services |
| Needed a place with electricity/water | |
| Prior location was destroyed by authorities | Made improvements to business in last 3 years |
| Nature of business improvements: | |
| Premises owned by the owner | Machinery/equipment investment |
| Premises owned by a private landlord | Better design |
| Premises owned by the owner’s family | Increase variety of products |
| Premises owned by the government/municipality | Increase quality of products |
| Owner has title deeds to the property | Improve working space |
| Approximate value of the property | Workers skill improvement |
| Owner has a formal rental agreement | Managerial skill improvement |
| New forms of distribution and marketing channels | |
| Employment | Better supply chain |
| Owners and partners when started business | Organization modernization |
| Paid workers (managers) when started business | Reasons for making changes to business: |
| Paid workers (professional staff) when started business | Emergence of new demand |
| Paid workers (technicians) when started business | Acquired better skills |
| Paid workers (unskilled) when started business | Higher competition |
| Family/friends working for no pay when started business | |
| Apprentice/trainees when started business | |
| Owners and partners currently | |
| Paid workers (managers) currently | |
| Paid workers (professional staff) currently | |
| Paid workers (technicians) currently | |
| Paid workers (unskilled) currently | |
| Family/friends working for no pay currently | |
| Apprentice/trainees currently | |
| Owners and partners when had most employees | |
| Paid workers (managers) when had most employees | |
| Paid workers (professional staff) when had most employees | |
| Paid workers (technicians) when had most employees | |
| Paid workers (unskilled) when had most employees | |
| Family/friends working for no pay when had most employees | |
| Apprentice/trainees when had most employees | |
| Total number of employees currently | |
| Ever provided training to workers | |
| Owner’s hiring decisions | |
| Hires his/her family members | |
| Hires people already trusted | |
| Hires people with relevant experience | |
| Hires people who seem intelligent | |
| Hires people who seem committed to work | |
| Owner’s evaluation of employee performance | |
| Evaluates whether the profits have gone up | |
| Evaluates whether they created any problems | |
| Evaluates whether they are honest and trustworthy | |
| Evaluates whether they have been reliable | |
| Evaluates whether they are good at their job | |
| Major problems related to the employees | |
| Not productive | |
| Dishonesty | |
| High absenteeism due to illness | |
| High absenteeism for other reasons | |
| Lack of skill | |
| Laziness | |
| Low work ethic | |
| No major problems | |
| Business administration and innovation | |
| Firm has a license | |
| Firm pays taxes | |
| Firm uses a mobile phone for business | |
| Firm use internet for business | |
| Firm/products that are competition | |
| Informal small businesses in area | |
| Formal small businesses in area | |
| Local importers of foreign-made products | |
| Large national companies | |
| Foreign companies | |
| Response to competition | |
| Improve quality of goods and services | |
| Reduce prices | |
| Change locations | |
| Change line of business |
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Note: Bold title case text (e.g., “Owner’s motivation to be an entrepreneur”) indicates a question with multiple categorical responses, which are listed below in non-bolded text (e.g., “Lost a previous job,” etc.).
Appendix E: Predicting Growth: excluding “Business Challenges” Variables
E.1: Firm-Owner Level Prediction Excluding “Business Challenges” Variables
Predictors of high growth using firm-owner level characteristics.
| (1) | (2) | (3) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| High growth owners | High growth (female owners) | High growth (male owners) | |
| Owner’s characteristics & behavioral variables | |||
|
|
|||
| Owner’s age (−) | −0.276 | −0.262*** | −0.164 |
| (0.196) | (0.060) | (0.226) | |
| Owner’s age squared (−) | 0.018 | −0.091 | |
| (0.151) | (0.188) | ||
| Owner views business as growing (+) | 0.072** | 0.100*** | |
| (0.029) | (0.034) | ||
| Owner has plans to expand business by opening another branch or shop (+) | 0.058** | ||
| (0.028) | |||
| Owner records interest payments (+) | 0.071*** | 0.077** | |
| (0.026) | (0.037) | ||
| Owner records worker payments (+) | 0.037 | ||
| (0.039) | |||
| Owner judge business environment by the prices she can charge (+) | 0.069** | ||
| (0.032) | |||
| Owner does not want to be part of any business association (−) | −0.054** | ||
| (0.025) | |||
| Owner not part of business associations as sees them as unbeneficial (+) | 0.033* | 0.035 | |
| (0.019) | (0.022) | ||
| Owner has informal personal networks for the business (+) | 0.082*** | ||
| (0.025) | |||
| Owner gets around using bicycles and motorcycle taxis (−) | −0.074*** | −0.074*** | |
| (0.026) | (0.025) | ||
| Owner currently employed by the government (−) | −0.056*** | ||
| (0.018) | |||
| Owner willing to sell company if made partner/owner (−) | −0.087** | ||
| (0.034) | |||
| Owner lives in ward Bunju (+) | 0.078*** | 0.085*** | |
| (0.024) | (0.026) | ||
|
|
|||
| Financial variables | |||
|
|
|||
| Value of collateral (TZS) (+) | 0.084*** | 0.078** | |
| (0.030) | (0.039) | ||
| Owner uses loan to refurbish house (−) | −0.049* | −0.058* | |
| (0.027) | (0.035) | ||
| Owner uses profits to expand business (+) | 0.030 | ||
| (0.034) | |||
| Average household annual income (+) | 0.041 | ||
| (0.026) | |||
| N | 258 | 85 | 173 |
| R 2 | 0.325 | 0.165 | 0.427 |
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Note: Robust standard errors are included in parentheses. *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01. The left-most column contains the predictors selected using by the lasso. Column 1 includes the OLS estimates for the variables selected using lasso on the full sample of 258 firm owners. Column 2 and 3 include OLS estimates for the variables selected using lasso on the female and male only firm owner sample respectively. Missing entries in each column mean the corresponding variable in the left-most column was not selected for the respective sample. The sign included in () at the end of each selected variable in the left-most column is the sign on the coefficient estimated using lasso.
E.2: Firm-Level Predictors of Growth Status: Excluding “Business Challenges” Variables
Predictors of high growth using firm- and owner-level characteristics.
| (1) | (2) | (3) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| High growth firms | High growth (female-owned firms) | High growth (male-owned firms) | |
| Owner’s characteristics & behavioral variables | |||
|
|
|||
| Owner’s age (−) | −0.149*** | −0.178*** | −0.151 |
| (0.025) | (0.031) | (0.095) | |
| Owner’s age – squared (−) | 0.010 | ||
| (0.090) | |||
| Owner believes business can grow in the future (+) | 0.062** | 0.063** | |
| (0.027) | (0.027) | ||
| Owner views business as growing (+) | 0.005 | 0.037 | |
| (0.028) | (0.025) | ||
| Owner has plans to expand business by opening another branch or shop (+) | 0.041* | 0.094** | |
| (0.024) | (0.038) | ||
| Owner records interest payments (+) | 0.099*** | 0.080*** | |
| (0.030) | (0.028) | ||
| Owner records worker payments (+) | 0.021 | 0.036 | |
| (0.031) | (0.034) | ||
| Owner ever employed in a family enterprise (+) | 0.047* | ||
| (0.027) | |||
| Owner has other occupation (−) | −0.017 | ||
| (0.024) | |||
| Owner’s any past business was agricultural (+) | 0.032 | ||
| (0.021) | |||
| Owner’s first business type was a bar (−) | −0.042** | ||
| (0.021) | |||
| Number of years since started first business (−) | −0.101*** | ||
| (0.030) | |||
| Owner does not want to be part of any business association (−) | −0.056** | −0.072*** | |
| (0.024) | (0.025) | ||
| Owner gets around using bicycles and motorcycle taxis (−) | −0.053* | −0.057** | |
| (0.028) | (0.029) | ||
| Owner gets around by walking (+) | 0.029** | ||
| (0.011) | |||
| Owner motivated to be an entrepreneur as parents/relatives were in business (+) | 0.073*** | 0.081*** | |
| (0.025) | (0.027) | ||
| Owner willing to sell company if made partner/owner (−) | −0.031 | −0.083*** | |
| (0.030) | (0.031) | ||
| Motivation to join network: learn from other entrepreneurs (−) | −0.049 | ||
| (0.033) | |||
| Owner evaluates employee performance by the problems they create (+) | 0.081*** | ||
| (0.029) | |||
| Owner hires employees with relevant experience (+) | 0.040 | 0.030 | |
| (0.025) | (0.028) | ||
| Owner started multiple businesses as her other business were struggling (−) | −0.051* | ||
| (0.027) | |||
| Owner chose business type as friends/relatives were in same line of business (−) | −0.030 | ||
| (0.021) | |||
| Owner not part of business associations as sees them as unbeneficial (+) | 0.022 | 0.012 | |
| (0.020) | (0.024) | ||
| Owner has informal personal networks for the business (+) | 0.046* | ||
| (0.026) | |||
| Owner member of NMB business association (+) | 0.034 | ||
| (0.028) | |||
| Discuss how to improve product quality/service at business association meetings (−) | −0.120*** | ||
| (0.029) | |||
| Discuss marketing strategies at business association meetings (−) | −0.012 | 0.024 | |
| (0.025) | (0.037) | ||
| Owner judge business environment by the prices she can charge (+) | 0.039 | ||
| (0.028) | |||
| Owner reduces prices in face of competition (−) | −0.039* | ||
| (0.022) | |||
| Owner has some primary education (+) | 0.035** | ||
| (0.016) | |||
| Owner does nothing in response to repayment (+) | 0.024 | ||
| (0.027) | |||
| Owner lives in ward Bunju (+) | 0.068** | 0.052** | |
| (0.028) | (0.025) | ||
| Owner lives in ward Kibada (−) | −0.063*** | ||
| (0.014) | |||
| Owner lives in ward Kibamba (+) | 0.048*** | 0.067** | |
| (0.015) | (0.033) | ||
| Owner lives in ward Makongo (−) | −0.035*** | ||
| (0.012) | |||
| Owner lives in ward Charambe (−) | −0.078*** | ||
| (0.012) | |||
| Owner lives in ward Kunduchi (+) | 0.038* | ||
| (0.021) | |||
| Owner lives in ward Kibonde (−) | −0.036*** | ||
| (0.012) | |||
| Owner lives in ward Wazo (−) | −0.033 | ||
| (0.020) | |||
| Owner lives in ward Ndugumbi (−) | −0.030*** | ||
| (0.007) | |||
| Owner lives in district Temeke (−) | −0.061** | ||
| (0.031) | |||
|
|
|||
| Firm’s characteristics | |||
|
|
|||
| Number of suppliers (+) | 0.029 | ||
| (0.019) | |||
| Owner meets suppliers at the place of business (+) | 0.088*** | 0.059** | 0.026 |
| (0.022) | (0.028) | (0.021) | |
| Firm does not sell products/services outside of Dar es Salaam (−) | −0.034 | −0.014 | |
| (0.040) | (0.035) | ||
| Total number of current employees (+) | 0.033** | 0.036** | |
| (0.016) | (0.016) | ||
| Number of paid unskilled workers and laborers employed by the firm when started (+) | 0.043* | 0.037 | |
| (0.024) | (0.026) | ||
| Number of paid unskilled workers and laborers employed by the firm currently (+) | 0.013 | 0.042 | 0.001 |
| (0.023) | (0.046) | (0.021) | |
| Firm type: wholesale (+) | 0.061** | 0.038 | |
| (0.025) | (0.027) | ||
| Firm owner transports products outside of Dar es Salaam for selling (+) | 0.032 | 0.065** | |
| (0.040) | (0.026) | ||
| Firm’s customers are small traders in the area/town (+) | 0.005 | 0.039 | |
| (0.025) | (0.028) | ||
| Firm’s customers are large enterprises (+) | 0.036* | 0.031 | |
| (0.022) | (0.020) | ||
| Firm’s customers are largers traders in the area/town (−) | −0.106*** | ||
| (0.032) | |||
| Owner travels outside Dar es Salaam to purchase firm inputs (+) | 0.080*** | ||
| (0.029) | |||
| Business premises owned by the government (−) | −0.023 | 0.002 | |
| (0.023) | (0.026) | ||
| Firm’s current location is due to cheap rent/land prices (−) | −0.059** | −0.128*** | |
| (0.024) | (0.034) | ||
| Firm’s current location is at home (−) | −0.041* | ||
| (0.023) | |||
| Firm’s profit increased due to lower input costs (−) | −0.091*** | ||
| (0.019) | |||
| Firm’s profit declined due to higher competition (−) | −0.034 | −0.108*** | |
| (0.023) | (0.033) | ||
| Firm’s profit increased due to lower competition (−) | −0.038** | ||
| (0.016) | |||
| Firm hires family (−) | −0.025 | ||
| (0.031) | |||
| Firm location: ward Kawe (−) | −0.060*** | 0.016 | |
| (0.015) | (0.019) | ||
| Firm location: ward Kijichi (+) | 0.045*** | ||
| (0.012) | |||
| Firm location: ward Mbezi Juu (−) | −0.045*** | −0.038* | |
| (0.016) | (0.019) | ||
| Firm location: ward Keko (+) | 0.034* | ||
| (0.018) | |||
| Firm location: ward Mbweni (+) | 0.011 | ||
| (0.012) | |||
|
|
|||
| Financial variables | |||
|
|
|||
| Value of collateral (TZS) (+) | 0.029 | 0.062** | |
| (0.023) | (0.030) | ||
| Loan taken from NMB in past five years (+) | 0.048* | 0.034* | |
| (0.026) | (0.020) | ||
| Ever borrowed from SIDO (−) | −0.048*** | ||
| (0.016) | |||
| Owner improved business premises in the past 3 years (+) | 0.059* | ||
| (0.035) | |||
| Owner uses loans to refurbish house (−) | 0.004 | ||
| (0.028) | |||
| Owner uses profits to expand business (+) | −0.011 | ||
| (0.027) | |||
| Owner uses profits to start a new business (+) | 0.043* | ||
| (0.022) | |||
| Average household annual income in TZS (+) | 0.045** | ||
| (0.018) | |||
| Average monthly profit during good months (+) | 0.082*** | ||
| (0.017) | |||
| Owner has other income source from family contributions/remittances (−) | −0.076*** | ||
| (0.026) | |||
| Owner uses collateral for loans (−) | −0.007 | ||
| (0.027) | |||
| Owner uses premises as collateral (−) | −0.033*** | ||
| (0.011) | |||
| Monthly expenses for insurance (dummy for missing values) (+) | −0.002 | ||
| (0.016) | |||
| Monthly repair expenses (dummy for missing values) (+) | 0.059*** | 0.037*** | |
| (0.021) | (0.013) | ||
| Monthly expenses for fertilizer and other farm inputs (dummy for missing values) (+) | 0.028 | ||
| (0.022) | |||
| Monthly expenses for wages (dummy for missing values) (+) | 0.047*** | ||
| (0.015) | |||
| Average monthly profit (missing dummy) (−) | |||
| N | 306 | 101 | 205 |
| R 2 | 0.533 | 0.779 | 0.782 |
-
Note: Standard errors clustered at the firm-owner level are included in parentheses. *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01. The left-most column contains the predictors selected using by the lasso. Column 1 includes the OLS estimates for the variables selected using lasso on the full sample of 306 firms. Column 2 and 3 include OLS estimates for the variables selected using lasso on the female-owned and male-owned firms respectively. Missing entries in each column mean the corresponding variable in the left-most column was not selected for the respective sample. The sign included in () at the end of each selected variable in the left-most column is the sign on the coefficient estimated using lasso. Recall that lasso selects covariates and estimates coefficients but does not provide the standard errors required for performing statistical inference.
Appendix F: Differences Between Male and Female Firm Owners
Differences between male and female firm owners.
| (1) | (2) | (3) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean for male firm-owners | Mean for female firm-owners | Difference in means | |
| Owner’s characteristics & behavioral variables | |||
|
|
|||
| Owner’s age | 44.139 | 46.176 | −2.038 |
| Owner views business as growing | 0.746 | 0.776 | −0.031 |
| Owner has plans to expand business by opening another branch or shop | 0.678 | 0.553 | 0.125 |
| Owner believes business can grow in future | 0.792 | 0.894 | −0.102** |
| Owner records interest payments | 0.301 | 0.239 | 0.062 |
| Owner records purchases of materials | 0.878 | 0.851 | 0.027 |
| Owner does not want to be part of any business association | 0.331 | 0.280 | 0.051 |
| Owner not part of business associations as sees them as unbeneficial | 0.037 | 0.040 | −0.003 |
| Owner owned a car before starting business | 0.190 | 0.318 | −0.128 |
| Owner gets around using bicycles and motorcycle taxis | 0.220 | 0.059 | 0.161*** |
| Owner currently employed by the government | 0.185 | 0.313 | −0.127 |
| Owner lives in district Temeke | 0.214 | 0.188 | 0.026 |
| Owner lives in ward Bunju | 0.064 | 0.059 | 0.005 |
|
|
|||
| Challenges faced by the Owner | |||
|
|
|||
| Business problem faced by the owner: insufficient working capital | 0.595 | 0.576 | 0.019 |
| Submit audit records of company’s performance to obtain a loan | 0.092 | 0.071 | 0.022 |
| Business problem faced by the owner: lack of working space | 0.092 | 0.035 | 0.057* |
| Owner’s past businesses closed due to lack of management skills | 0.283 | 0.270 | 0.013 |
| Owner has experienced a traffic accident | 0.029 | 0.024 | 0.005 |
| Get signature from the local government authority to obtain a loan | 0.890 | 0.871 | 0.020 |
| Time to get a loan is a challenge with the borrowing process | 0.243 | 0.247 | −0.004 |
| All documentation is in English is a challenge with the borrowing process | 0.069 | 0.047 | 0.022 |
| Owner has experienced theft by a friend | 0.028 | 0.000 | 0.028 |
| Owner has experienced theft by a stranger | 0.444 | 0.360 | 0.084 |
| Challenge faced when started business: lack of mgmt skills | 0.052 | 0.012 | 0.040 |
| Owner faced low demand for products when first started business | 0.220 | 0.165 | 0.055 |
| Challenge faced when started business: insufficient capital | 0.532 | 0.412 | 0.120* |
| Challenge faced when started business: insufficient market access | 0.202 | 0.200 | 0.002 |
|
|
|||
| Financial variables | |||
|
|
|||
| Value of collateral (in million TZS) | 85.950 | 111.835 | −25.885* |
| Owner uses loan to refurbish house | 0.145 | 0.141 | 0.003 |
| Owner uses profits to expand business | 0.653 | 0.647 | 0.006 |
| Average household annual income (in million TZS) | 20.129 | 34.616 | −14.487** |
-
*p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01. Note: column (1) includes the mean values for the variables in the left-most column for the male firm owners, while column (2) includes the means for females. In column (3), we test if the differences in means are statistically significant. Number of observations for males and females is 173 and 85, respectively.
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© 2023 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Frontmatter
- Editorial
- The Gendered Effects of Globalization: Recent Evidence from Developing Countries
- Research Foundation
- Protectionism and Gender Inequality in Developing Countries
- Capital Account Liberalization, Structural Change, and Female Employment
- Symposia Articles
- What Predicts the Growth of Small Firms? Evidence from Tanzanian Commercial Loan Data
- Trade Liberalization and Gender Inequality in India: A Task Content of Occupations Approach
- Can Online Platforms Promote Women-Led Exporting Firms?
- When Women’s Work Disappears: Marriage and Fertility Decisions in Peru
- Trade Boomers: Evidence from the Commodities-for-Manufactures Boom in Brazil
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Frontmatter
- Editorial
- The Gendered Effects of Globalization: Recent Evidence from Developing Countries
- Research Foundation
- Protectionism and Gender Inequality in Developing Countries
- Capital Account Liberalization, Structural Change, and Female Employment
- Symposia Articles
- What Predicts the Growth of Small Firms? Evidence from Tanzanian Commercial Loan Data
- Trade Liberalization and Gender Inequality in India: A Task Content of Occupations Approach
- Can Online Platforms Promote Women-Led Exporting Firms?
- When Women’s Work Disappears: Marriage and Fertility Decisions in Peru
- Trade Boomers: Evidence from the Commodities-for-Manufactures Boom in Brazil
