Unfilled Training Positions in Germany – Regional and Establishment-Specific Determinants
-
Sandra Dummert
und
Barbara Schwengler
Abstract
The current situation in the German apprenticeship market is characterized by two contradictory developments. On the one hand, establishments are experiencing increasing problems filling the training positions they offer, and the number of vacant training positions is climbing. On the other hand, the transition into training is still difficult for many young people, and the number of unsuccessful vocational training applicants is rising. Hence, matching supply with demand is becoming increasingly difficult in the German job market for training positions. Using the Linked Employer-Employee dataset (LIAB) from the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), our paper provides a closer examination of the phenomenon of unfilled training positions. It presents an overview of the evolution of vacant training positions in eastern and western Germany and attempts to explain the number of vacancies by investigating the factors responsible for the establishments’ inability to fill their training positions. We assume that training position vacancies are due not only to internal company reasons such as firm size or the wage offer for apprentices but also to external conditions such as general regional factors. Therefore, our analysis also considers the situation on the demand side of the labor market within a region. The results of our multilevel mixed-effects estimations show that in addition to characteristics on the enterprise level, regional determinants also affect the share of vacant apprenticeships. With respect to establishment-related factors, mainly characteristics that describe the attractiveness of the firm prove to be important. With regard to regional-specific factors, we find that the availability of school leavers in a region in addition to the level of regional-sectoral competition impacts the recruiting success of establishments. Our analysis also shows that there are remarkable differences between eastern and western Germany concerning both the quantitative importance of unfilled training positions and the factors affecting them.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the reviewers and the editor for their helpful and constructive comments.
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Appendix
Description of dependent and independent variables.
| Share of unfilled training places | Number of unfilled training positions divided by the number of offered training positions |
| Regional variables | |
| Unemployment rate of young people (15–24 years) | Share of unemployed young people above 15 and under 25 years on the labor force of young people above 15 and under 25 years within a regional labor market |
| Density of school leavers (log.) | Number of school leavers within a regional labor market divided by its area (km2) |
| Sector concentration index | Regional-sectoral concentration index based on 3-digit sector classification and 141 labor market regions: Low value=high sectoral competition, high value=low sectoral competition (Gerner/Stegmaier 2009, Bellmann et al. 2011) |
| Share of graduates with a basic secondary school certificate | Number of basic secondary level graduates divided by the overall number of school leavers within a regional labor market |
| Share of graduates with an intermediate secondary school certificate | Number of intermediate secondary level graduates divided by the overall number of school leavers within a regional labor market |
| Establishment-specific characteristics | |
| Works council | Establishment has a works or staff council elected in accordance with the Works Council Constitution Act or the Staff Representation Act; Dummy: 1=yes |
| Collective agreement | Establishment is bound by an industry-wide wage agreement or a company agreement concluded by the establishment and the trade unions; Dummy: 1=yes |
| Retention rate of apprentices | Share of training graduates who were taken over by their training firm after successfully completing their vocational training related to all graduates who have successfully completed their training |
| Wage of apprentices (firm fixed-effects) | Establishment fixed effect based on a Mincer wage equation on the individual level |
| Establishment size | 4 Dummies (1–9; 10–49; 50–249 and 250 and more employees) |
| Western Germany | Establishment is located in western Germany; Dummy: 1=yes |
| Share of employees in occupational segments | Share of employees in 14 occupational segments in the establishment (Matthes et al. 2015) |
| Share of qualified employees | Share of apprentices or employees with an university degree or vocational qualification on all employees |
| Share of part-time employees | Share of part-time workers on all employees |
| Share of fixed-term employees | Share of fixed-term employees on all employees |
| Share of apprenticeships | Share of apprentices on all employees |
| Vacancies for skilled jobs | Establishment has vacancies for skilled jobs; Dummy: 1=yes |
| Kind of establishment | Dummy: 0=Independent company; 1=head office of company, place of business/office branch of a larger company or middle-level authority of a multilevel company |
| Modern technical state | Overall technical state of the plant and machinery, furniture and office equipment of the establishment compared to other establishments in the same industry; Dummy: 1=very modern/modern |
| Year | 7 Dummies (2008–2014) |
Descriptive statistics of the dependent and the independent variables (Germany).
| Germany (N=20,761) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variables | Mean | Std. Dev | Min | Max |
| Share of unfilled training positions | 0.142 | 0.298 | 0 | 1 |
| Unemployment rate of young people (15–24 years) | 0.073 | 0.031 | 0.015 | 0.181 |
| Density of school leavers | 3.153 | 3.017 | 0.220 | 25.246 |
| Sector concentration index | 0.100 | 0.239 | 0 | 1 |
| Share of graduates with: | ||||
| – a basic secondary school certificate | 0.176 | 0.055 | 0.060 | 0.345 |
| – an intermediate secondary school certificate | 0.413 | 0.063 | 0.229 | 0.575 |
| – an upper secondary school leaving certificate | 0.340 | 0.073 | 0.156 | 0.574 |
| Works council (d) | 0.548 | 0.498 | 0 | 1 |
| Collective agreement (d) | 0.620 | 0.485 | 0 | 1 |
| Retention rate of apprentices | 0.562 | 0.451 | 0 | 1 |
| Wage of apprentices (firm fixed-effects) | −0.102 | 0.316 | −1.423 | 0.681 |
| Establishment size | ||||
| 1–9 employees (ref.) | 0.044 | 0.206 | 0 | 1 |
| 10–49 employees | 0.261 | 0.439 | 0 | 1 |
| 50–249 employees | 0.399 | 0.490 | 0 | 1 |
| 250 or more employees | 0.295 | 0.456 | 0 | 1 |
| Western Germany (d) | 0.644 | 0.479 | 0 | 1 |
| Occupational segments | ||||
| Occupations in agriculture, forestry and horticulture | 0.027 | 0.131 | 0 | 1 |
| Manufacturing occupations (ref.) | 0.136 | 0.239 | 0 | 1 |
| Occupations concerned with production | 0.142 | 0.211 | 0 | 1 |
| Occupations in building and interior construction | 0.070 | 0.186 | 0 | 1 |
| Occupations in the food industry, in gastronomy and in tourism | 0.045 | 0.152 | 0 | 1 |
| Medical and non-medical health care occupations | 0.067 | 0.205 | 0 | 1 |
| Service occupations in social sector and cultural work | 0.054 | 0.150 | 0 | 1 |
| Occupations in commerce and trade | 0.083 | 0.193 | 0 | 1 |
| Occupations in business management and organisation | 0.143 | 0.172 | 0 | 1 |
| Business related service occupations | 0.088 | 0.211 | 0 | 1 |
| Service occupations in the IT-sector and the natural sciences | 0.029 | 0.097 | 0 | 1 |
| Safety and security occupations | 0.011 | 0.054 | 0 | 0.985 |
| Occupations in traffic and logistics | 0.078 | 0.161 | 0 | 1 |
| Occupations in cleaning services | 0.027 | 0.082 | 0 | 1 |
| Share of qualified employees | 0.746 | 0.211 | 0 | 1 |
| Share of part-time employees | 0.195 | 0.216 | 0 | 1 |
| Share of fixed-term employees | 0.067 | 0.111 | 0 | 1 |
| Share of apprenticeships | 0.080 | 0.092 | 0 | 1 |
| Vacancies for skilled jobs (d) | 0.165 | 0.371 | 0 | 1 |
| Kind of establishment (d) | 0.364 | 0.481 | 0 | 1 |
| Modern technical state (d) | 0.727 | 0.446 | 0 | 1 |
Source: LIAB QM, years 2008–2014, analysis sample, d=dummy.
Descriptive statistics of the dependent and the independent variables (Eastern and Western Germany).
| Eastern Germany (N=7,392) | Western Germany (N=13,369) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variables | Mean | Std. Dev | Min | Max | Mean | Std. Dev | Min | Max |
| Share of unfilled training positions | 0.241 | 0.367 | 0 | 1 | 0.088 | 0.236 | 0 | 1 |
| Unemployment rate of young people (15–24 years) | 0.102 | 0.025 | 0.039 | 0.181 | 0.057 | 0.021 | 0.015 | 0.137 |
| Density of school leavers | 1.634 | 1.893 | 0.220 | 7.994 | 3.993 | 3.190 | 0.324 | 25.246 |
| Sector concentration index | 0.125 | 0.264 | 0 | 1 | 0.087 | 0.223 | 0 | 1 |
| Share of graduates with: | ||||||||
| – a basic secondary school certificate | 0.131 | 0.034 | 0.060 | 0.256 | 0.202 | 0.048 | 0.093 | 0.345 |
| – an intermediate secondary school certificate | 0.416 | 0.076 | 0.229 | 0.548 | 0.412 | 0.053 | 0.269 | 0.575 |
| – an upper secondary school leaving certificate | 0.358 | 0.072 | 0.207 | 0.574 | 0.330 | 0.071 | 0.156 | 0.517 |
| Works council (d) | 0.478 | 0.500 | 0 | 1 | 0.586 | 0.492 | 0 | 1 |
| Collective agreement (d) | 0.480 | 0.500 | 0 | 1 | 0.697 | 0.459 | 0 | 1 |
| Retention rate of apprentices | 0.519 | 0.464 | 0 | 1 | 0.587 | 0.442 | 0 | 1 |
| Wage of apprentices (firm fixed-effects) | −0.288 | 0.337 | −1.422 | 0.623 | 0.002 | 0.250 | −1.264 | 0.681 |
| Establishment size | ||||||||
| 1–9 employees (ref.) | 0.039 | 0.194 | 0 | 1 | 0.047 | 0.212 | 0 | 1 |
| 10–49 employees | 0.307 | 0.461 | 0 | 1 | 0.236 | 0.425 | 0 | 1 |
| 50–249 employees | 0.452 | 0.498 | 0 | 1 | 0.370 | 0.483 | 0 | 1 |
| 250 or more employees | 0.203 | 0.402 | 0 | 1 | 0.346 | 0.476 | 0 | 1 |
| Western Germany (d) | – | – | – | – | ||||
| Occupational segments | ||||||||
| Occupations in agriculture, forestry and horticulture | 0.032 | 0.140 | 0 | 1 | 0.024 | 0.127 | 0 | 1 |
| Manufacturing occupations (ref.) | 0.184 | 0.276 | 0 | 1 | 0.110 | 0.212 | 0 | 1 |
| Occupations concerned with production | 0.149 | 0.211 | 0 | 1 | 0.138 | 0.210 | 0 | 1 |
| Occupations in building and interior construction | 0.071 | 0.185 | 0 | 1 | 0.070 | 0.187 | 0 | 1 |
| Occupations in the food industry, in gastronomy and in tourism | 0.047 | 0.155 | 0 | 1 | 0.045 | 0.150 | 0 | 1 |
| Medical and non-medical health care occupations | 0.063 | 0.206 | 0 | 1 | 0.069 | 0.204 | 0 | 1 |
| Service occupations in social sector and cultural work | 0.046 | 0.138 | 0 | 0.964 | 0.058 | 0.156 | 0 | 1 |
| Occupations in commerce and trade | 0.075 | 0.180 | 0 | 1 | 0.087 | 0.200 | 0 | 1 |
| Occupations in business management and organisation | 0.135 | 0.174 | 0 | 1 | 0.148 | 0.170 | 0 | 1 |
| Business related service occupations | 0.069 | 0.172 | 0 | 1 | 0.098 | 0.228 | 0 | 1 |
| Service occupations in the IT-sector and the natural sciences | 0.029 | 0.102 | 0 | 1 | 0.029 | 0.094 | 0 | 1 |
| Safety and security occupations | 0.010 | 0.054 | 0 | 0.976 | 0.011 | 0.054 | 0 | 0.985 |
| Occupations in traffic and logistics | 0.071 | 0.151 | 0 | 1 | 0.081 | 0.166 | 0 | 1 |
| Occupations in cleaning services | 0.020 | 0.086 | 0 | 1 | 0.031 | 0.079 | 0 | 1 |
| Share of qualified employees | 0.807 | 0.187 | 0 | 1 | 0.713 | 0.215 | 0 | 1 |
| Share of part-time employees | 0.157 | 0.222 | 0 | 1 | 0.216 | 0.209 | 0 | 1 |
| Share of fixed-term employees | 0.067 | 0.111 | 0 | 1 | 0.067 | 0.111 | 0 | 1 |
| Share of apprenticeships | 0.080 | 0.102 | 0 | 1 | 0.080 | 0.086 | 0 | 0.993 |
| Vacancies for skilled jobs (d) | 0.168 | 0.374 | 0 | 1 | 0.163 | 0.370 | 0 | 1 |
| Kind of establishment (d) | 0.286 | 0.452 | 0 | 1 | 0.408 | 0.491 | 0 | 1 |
| Modern technical state (d) | 0.717 | 0.450 | 0 | 1 | 0.732 | 0.443 | 0 | 1 |
Source: LIAB QM, years 2008–2014, analysis sample, d=dummy.
Mixed effects logistic random intercept model.
| AME | Std. Err. | |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate of young people (15–24 years) | −1.453*** | 0.519 |
| Density of school leavers (log.) | −0.049** | 0.021 |
| Sector concentration index | −0.151*** | 0.035 |
| Share of grad. with a basic secondary school leaving certificate | 0.199 | 0.193 |
| Share of grad. with an intermediate secondary school leaving certificate | −0.029 | 0.133 |
| Works council (d) | −0.069*** | 0.021 |
| Collective bargaining agreement (d) | −0.111*** | 0.016 |
| Retention rate of apprentices | −0.068*** | 0.012 |
| Wage of apprentices (firm fixed-effects) | −0.236*** | 0.043 |
| Establishment size (Ref.: 1–9 employees) | ||
| 10–49 employees | 0.035 | 0.045 |
| 50–249 employees | −0.065 | 0.046 |
| 250 or more employees | −0.143*** | 0.048 |
| Western Germany (d) | −0.420*** | 0.054 |
| Occupational segments (Ref.: Manufacturing occupations) | ||
| Occupations in agriculture, forestry and horticulture | 0.040 | 0.078 |
| Occupations concerned with production | −0.188*** | 0.053 |
| Occupations in building and interior construction | 0.187*** | 0.058 |
| Occupations in the food industry, gastronomy and tourism | 0.362*** | 0.064 |
| Medical and non-medical health care occupations | −0.219*** | 0.056 |
| Service occupations in the social sector and cultural work | −0.214*** | 0.060 |
| Occupations in commerce and trade | 0.069 | 0.058 |
| Occupations in business management and organization | −0.122** | 0.055 |
| Business-related service occupations | −0.300*** | 0.057 |
| Service occupations in the IT sector and the natural sciences | −0.249** | 0.099 |
| Safety and security occupations | 0.358*** | 0.097 |
| Occupations in traffic and logistics | 0.024 | 0.064 |
| Occupations in cleaning services | 0.328*** | 0.113 |
| Share of qualified employees | −0.025 | 0.040 |
| Share of part-time employees | −0.072 | 0.044 |
| Share of fixed-term employees | −0.044 | 0.055 |
| Share of apprenticeships | −0.122 | 0.086 |
| Vacancies for skilled jobs (d) | 0.027** | 0.012 |
| Multi-establishment company (d) | −0.062*** | 0.014 |
| Modern technical state (d) | −0.036*** | 0.012 |
| Year dummies (Ref.: 2014) | ||
| 2008 | −0.209*** | 0.024 |
| 2009 | −0.115*** | 0.022 |
| 2010 | −0.034* | 0.018 |
| 2011 | −0.053*** | 0.016 |
| 2012 | −0.041*** | 0.015 |
| 2013 | 0.019 | 0.014 |
| Random-Effects Parameters (var) | ||
| Level 3: Regional labor market Ϛk(3) | 0.105*** | 0.032 |
| Level 2: Establishment Ϛjk(2) | 2.923*** | 0.121 |
| LR test vs. logistic regression: χ2(2) | 12,224.82*** | |
| Gauss-Hermite quadrature (integration points) | 7 | |
| Number of groups (establishments) | 5,525 | |
| Number of groups (regional labor markets) | 140 | |
| Number of observations | 20,761 | |
***: p<0.01, **: p<0.05, *: p<0.1; d=dummy; Basis: Establishments that are legally authorized to train young staff and have offered training positions. Source: LIAB QM, years 2008–2014.
Mixed effects logistic random intercept model (Eastern and western Germany).
| Eastern Germany | Western Germany | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AME | Std. Err. | AME | Std. Err. | |
| Unemployment rate of young people (15–24 years) | −0.304 | 1.657 | −1.028* | 0.578 |
| Density of school leavers (log.) | −0.135** | 0.062 | −0.016 | 0.017 |
| Sector concentration index | 0.001 | 0.085 | −0.262*** | 0.047 |
| Share of grad. with a basic secondary school leaving certificate | −0.271 | 0.673 | −0.139 | 0.143 |
| Share of grad. with an intermediate secondary school leaving certificate | 0.268 | 0.398 | −0.546*** | 0.122 |
| Works council (d) | −0.084 | 0.059 | −0.052*** | 0.015 |
| Collective bargaining agreement (d) | −0.245*** | 0.046 | −0.048*** | 0.012 |
| Retention rate of apprentices | −0.080** | 0.034 | −0.046*** | 0.010 |
| Wage of apprentices (firm fixed-effects) | −0.584*** | 0.111 | −0.091*** | 0.034 |
| Establishment size (Ref.: 1–9 employees) | ||||
| 10–49 employees | −0.018 | 0.131 | 0.012 | 0.032 |
| 50–249 employees | −0.246* | 0.134 | −0.029 | 0.034 |
| 250 or more employees | −0.290** | 0.141 | −0.101*** | 0.036 |
| Occupational segments (Ref.: Manufacturing occupations) | ||||
| Occupations in agriculture, forestry and horticulture | 0.006 | 0.207 | 0.041 | 0.061 |
| Occupations concerned with production | −0.320** | 0.136 | −0.114** | 0.045 |
| Occupations in building and interior construction | 0.196 | 0.158 | 0.122*** | 0.045 |
| Occupations in the food industry, gastronomy and tourism | 0.517*** | 0.173 | 0.209*** | 0.051 |
| Medical and non-medical health care occupations | −0.931*** | 0.173 | −0.066 | 0.042 |
| Service occupations in the social sector and cultural work | −0.452** | 0.182 | −0.143*** | 0.047 |
| Occupations in commerce and trade | −0.091 | 0.166 | 0.061 | 0.044 |
| Occupations in business management and organization | −0.420** | 0.166 | −0.060 | 0.042 |
| Business-related service occupations | −1.152*** | 0.186 | −0.090** | 0.042 |
| Service occupations in the IT sector and the natural sciences | −0.207 | 0.268 | −0.164** | 0.076 |
| Safety and security occupations | 0.780*** | 0.228 | 0.071 | 0.113 |
| Occupations in traffic and logistics | 0.222 | 0.181 | −0.054 | 0.048 |
| Occupations in cleaning services | 0.816** | 0.319 | 0.063 | 0.084 |
| Share of qualified employees | −0.199 | 0.127 | 0.013 | 0.027 |
| Share of part-time employees | −0.260** | 0.129 | −0.014 | 0.032 |
| Share of fixed-term employees | −0.306* | 0.163 | 0.048 | 0.040 |
| Share of apprenticeships | −0.051 | 0.236 | −0.278*** | 0.075 |
| Vacancies for skilled jobs (d) | −0.092*** | 0.035 | 0.045*** | 0.009 |
| Multi-establishment company (d) | −0.062 | 0.042 | −0.044*** | 0.011 |
| Modern technical state (d) | −0.034 | 0.034 | −0.028*** | 0.009 |
| Year dummies (Ref.: 2014) | ||||
| 2008 | −0.645*** | 0.094 | −0.066*** | 0.016 |
| 2009 | −0.426*** | 0.086 | −0.033** | 0.014 |
| 2010 | −0.221*** | 0.060 | −0.001 | 0.012 |
| 2011 | −0.052 | 0.049 | −0.073*** | 0.014 |
| 2012 | 0.005 | 0.044 | −0.065*** | 0.012 |
| 2013 | −0.081* | 0.042 | 0.021** | 0.010 |
| Random-Effects Parameters (var) | ||||
| Level 3: Regional labor market Ϛk(3) | 0.086* | 0.047 | 0.135*** | 0.048 |
| Level 2: Establishment Ϛjk(2) | 2.374*** | 0.153 | 3.316*** | 0.183 |
| LR test vs. logistic regression: χ2(2) | 4230.39*** | 7251.79*** | ||
| Gauss-Hermite quadrature (integration points) | 7 | 7 | ||
| Number of groups (establishments) | 1,883 | 3,642 | ||
| Number of groups (regional labor markets) | 38 | 107 | ||
| Number of observations | 7,392 | 13,369 | ||
***: p<0.01, **: p<0.05, *: p<0.1; d=dummy; Basis: Establishments that are legally authorized to train young staff and have offered training positions. Source: LIAB QM, years 2008–2014.
Between and within effects in Germany (average marginal effects).
| within effect | between effect | |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate of young people (15–24) | −1.054 (0.676) | −2.844*** (0.670) |
| Density of school leavers (log.) | −0.180*** (0.059) | −0.032 (0.021) |
| Sector concentration index | −0.115*** (0.032) | 0.261 (0.201) |
| Share of grad. with a basic secondary school leaving certificate | 0.063 (0.231) | −0.761** (0.374) |
| Share of grad. with an intermediate secondary school leaving certificate | −0.134 (0.166) | −0.588** (0.286) |
| Works council (d) | 0.060** (0.029) | −0.166*** (0.026) |
| Collective bargaining agreement (d) | −0.119*** (0.019) | −0.028 (0.023) |
| Retention rate of apprentices | −0.042*** (0.012) | −0.216*** (0.033) |
| Wage of apprentices (firm fixed effects) | −0.271*** (0.040) | |
| Establishment size (Ref.: 1–9 employees) | ||
| 10–49 employees | 0.001 (0.041) | |
| 50–249 employees | −0.060 (0.044) | |
| 250 or more employees | −0.143*** (0.047) | |
| Western Germany (d) | −0.378*** (0.051) | |
| Occupational segments (Ref.: Manufacturing occupations) | ||
| Occupations in agriculture, forestry and horticulture | 0.005 (0.070) | |
| Occupations concerned with production | −0.174*** (0.049) | |
| Occupations in building and interior construction | 0.140*** (0.053) | |
| Occupations in the food industry, gastronomy and tourism | 0.257*** (0.059) | |
| Medical and non-medical health care occupations | −0.285*** (0.055) | |
| Service occupations in the social sector and cultural work | −0.196*** (0.059) | |
| Occupations in commerce and trade | 0.059 (0.055) | |
| Occupations in business management and organization | −0.064 (0.052) | |
| Business-related service occupations | −0.201*** (0.053) | |
| Service occupations in the IT sector and the natural sciences | −0.249*** (0.090) | |
| Safety and security occupations | 0.190** (0.089) | |
| Occupations in traffic and logistics | −0.024 (0.058) | |
| Occupations in cleaning services | 0.161 (0.105) | |
| Share of qualified employees | 0.131*** (0.049) | −0.184*** (0.054) |
| Share of part-time employees | −0.137** (0.054) | −0.076 (0.059) |
| Share of fixed-term employees | −0.091 (0.060) | 0.049 (0.091) |
| Share of apprenticeships | 0.759*** (0.118) | −1.000*** (0.108) |
| Vacancies for skilled jobs (d) | −0.006 (0.011) | 0.299*** (0.035) |
| Multi-establishment company (d) | −0.090*** (0.017) | −0.003 (0.021) |
| Modern technical state (d) | −0.023* (0.013) | −0.077*** (0.024) |
| Year dummies (Ref.: 2014) | ||
| 2008 | −0.194*** (0.026) | |
| 2009 | −0.115*** (0.024) | |
| 2010 | −0.045** (0.018) | |
| 2011 | −0.061*** (0.016) | |
| 2012 | −0.047*** (0.014) | |
| 2013 | 0.015 (0.013) | |
| Random-Effects Parameters (var) | ||
| Level 3: Regional labor market Ϛjk(2) | 0.073*** (0.027) | |
| Level 2: Establishment Ϛjk(2) | 2.701*** (0.111) | |
| LR test vs. logistic regression: χ2(2) | 11,701.66*** | |
| Gauss-Hermite quadrature (integration points) | 7 | |
| Number of groups (establishments) | 5,525 | |
| Number of groups (regional labor markets) | 140 | |
| Number of observations | 20,761 | |
Standard errors in parentheses; ***: p<0.01, **: p<0.05, *: p<0.1; d=dummy; Basis: Establishments that are legally authorized to train young staff and have offered training positions. Source: LIAB QM, years 2008–2014.
Between and within effects in eastern and western Germany (average marginal effects).
| Eastern Germany | Western Germany | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| within effect | between effect | within effect | between effect | |
| Unemployment rate of young people (15–24 years) | 4.090** (1.688) | −6.457*** (1.439) | 0.928 (0.964) | −1.292** (0.549) |
| Density of school leavers (log.) | −0.469*** (0.180) | −0.028 (0.051) | 0.384*** (0.083) | −0.021 (0.019) |
| Sector concentration index | 0.048 (0.068) | 1.220** (0.517) | −0.188*** (0.034) | 0.044 (0.166) |
| Share of graduates with a basic secondary school leaving certificate | −0.775 (0.635) | −1.738 (1.093) | 0.477** (0.219) | −0.338 (0.292) |
| Share of graduates with an intermediate secondary school leaving certificate | −0.330 (0.490) | −0.718 (0.549) | 0.019 (0.177) | −0.347 (0.297) |
| Works council (d) | 0.176** (0.073) | −0.274*** (0.062) | −0.020 (0.024) | −0.081*** (0.021) |
| Collective bargaining agreement (d) | −0.198*** (0.047) | −0.058 (0.060) | −0.080*** (0.017) | −0.008 (0.019) |
| Retention rate of apprentices | −0.025 (0.029) | −0.449*** (0.079) | −0.036*** (0.010) | −0.092*** (0.027) |
| Wage of apprentices (firm fixed-effects) | −0.589*** (0.090) | −0.131*** (0.037) | ||
| Establishment size (Ref.: 1–9 employees) | ||||
| 10–49 employees | −0.051 (0.105) | 0.002 (0.034) | ||
| 50–249 employees | −0.123 (0.110) | −0.045 (0.037) | ||
| 250 or more employees | −0.165 (0.118) | −0.133*** (0.041) | ||
| Occupational segments (Ref.: Manufacturing occupations) | ||||
| Occupations in agriculture, forestry and horticulture | 0.012 (0.161) | 0.021 (0.062) | ||
| Occupations concerned with production | −0.266** (0.107) | −0.111** (0.047) | ||
| Occupations in building and interior construction | 0.065 (0.126) | 0.129*** (0.047) | ||
| Occupations in the food industry, gastronomy and tourism | 0.384*** (0.136) | 0.153*** (0.052) | ||
| Medical and non-medical health care occupations | −0.906*** (0.144) | −0.105** (0.046) | ||
| Service occupations in the social sector and cultural work | −0.192 (0.155) | −0.167*** (0.051) | ||
| Occupations in commerce and trade | −0.038 (0.134) | 0.058 (0.048) | ||
| Occupations in business management and organization | −0.176 (0.133) | −0.049 (0.045) | ||
| Business-related service occupations | −0.747*** (0.143) | −0.052 (0.044) | ||
| Service occupations in the IT sector and the natural sciences | −0.141 (0.210) | −0.181** (0.079) | ||
| Safety and security occupations | 0.410** (0.184) | 0.044 (0.114) | ||
| Occupations in traffic and logistics | 0.118 (0.142) | −0.065 (0.050) | ||
| Occupations in cleaning services | 0.352 (0.257) | 0.007 (0.088) | ||
| Share of qualified employees | 0.057 (0.130) | −0.395** (0.157) | 0.136*** (0.039) | −0.115*** (0.042) |
| Share of part-time employees | −0.330** (0.142) | −0.217 (0.146) | −0.064 (0.044) | 0.007 (0.050) |
| Share of fixed-term employees | −0.250 (0.156) | −0.044 (0.232) | 0.002 (0.049) | 0.072 (0.074) |
| Share of apprenticeships | 1.708*** (0.275) | −1.930*** (0.241) | 0.208* (0.117) | −0.593*** (0.104) |
| Vacancies for skilled jobs (d) | −0.123*** (0.030) | 0.346*** (0.080) | 0.024*** (0.009) | 0.228*** (0.032) |
| Multi-establishment company (d) | −0.100** (0.041) | 0.030 (0.056) | −0.082*** (0.014) | 0.002 (0.017) |
| Modern technical state (d) | −0.004 (0.030) | −0.142** (0.061) | −0.021** (0.011) | −0.040** (0.020) |
| Year dummies (Ref.: 2014) | ||||
| 2008 | −0.680*** (0.090) | −0.131*** (0.022) | ||
| 2009 | −0.539*** (0.085) | −0.095*** (0.022) | ||
| 2010 | −0.342*** (0.062) | −0.035** (0.016) | ||
| 2011 | −0.173*** (0.055) | −0.080*** (0.014) | ||
| 2012 | −0.089** (0.042) | −0.064*** (0.012) | ||
| 2013 | −0.128*** (0.036) | 0.006 (0.010) | ||
| Random-Effects Parameters (var) | ||||
| Level 3: Regional labor market Ϛk(3) | 0.024 (0.021) | 0.087** (0.040) | ||
| Level 2: Establishment Ϛjk(2) | 2.097*** (0.134) | 3.179*** (0.175) | ||
| LR test vs. logistic regression: χ2(2) | 3815.83*** | 7011.48*** | ||
| Gauss-Hermite quadrature (integration points) | 7 | 7 | ||
| Number of groups (establishments) | 1,883 | 3,642 | ||
| Number of groups (regional labor markets) | 38 | 107 | ||
| Number of observations | 7,392 | 13,369 | ||
Standard errors in parentheses; ***: p<0.01, **: p<0.05, *: p<0.1; d=dummy; Basis: Establishments that are legally authorized to train young staff and have offered training positions. Source: LIAB QM, years 2008–2014.
© 2019 Oldenbourg Wissenschaftsverlag GmbH, Published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg, Berlin/Boston
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Frontmatter
- Original Articles
- Macroeconomic Regimes, Technological Shocks and Employment Dynamics
- Regulating Speculative Housing Markets via Public Housing Construction Programs: Insights from a Heterogeneous Agent Model
- Unfilled Training Positions in Germany – Regional and Establishment-Specific Determinants
- Under Debate
- Twenty Steps Towards an Adequate Inferential Interpretation of p-Values in Econometrics
- Data Observer
- The German Management and Organizational Practices (GMOP) Survey
- Population Projection for Germany 2015–2050 on Grid Level (RWI-GEO-GRID-POP-Forecast)
- PASS-ADIAB – Linked Survey and Administrative Data for Research on Unemployment and Poverty
- Book Reviews
- Hommes, Cars LeBaron, Blake: Handbook of Computational Economics, Volume 4, Heterogeneous Agent Modeling
- Luis C. Corchón and Marco A. Marini (eds.), Handbook of Game Theory and Industrial Organization, Volume I Theory.
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Frontmatter
- Original Articles
- Macroeconomic Regimes, Technological Shocks and Employment Dynamics
- Regulating Speculative Housing Markets via Public Housing Construction Programs: Insights from a Heterogeneous Agent Model
- Unfilled Training Positions in Germany – Regional and Establishment-Specific Determinants
- Under Debate
- Twenty Steps Towards an Adequate Inferential Interpretation of p-Values in Econometrics
- Data Observer
- The German Management and Organizational Practices (GMOP) Survey
- Population Projection for Germany 2015–2050 on Grid Level (RWI-GEO-GRID-POP-Forecast)
- PASS-ADIAB – Linked Survey and Administrative Data for Research on Unemployment and Poverty
- Book Reviews
- Hommes, Cars LeBaron, Blake: Handbook of Computational Economics, Volume 4, Heterogeneous Agent Modeling
- Luis C. Corchón and Marco A. Marini (eds.), Handbook of Game Theory and Industrial Organization, Volume I Theory.
