The Rural-Urban Continuum of Polarization: Understanding the Geography of the 2018 Midterms

Kenneth M. Johnson; Dante J. Scala

doi:10.1515/for-2020-2102

Article

The Rural-Urban Continuum of Polarization: Understanding the Geography of the 2018 Midterms

Kenneth M. Johnson
Kenneth M. Johnson is a professor of sociology and senior demographer at the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire, as well as an Andrew Carnegie Fellow. His research examines national and regional population redistribution, rural and urban demographic change, the growing racial diversity of the U.S. population, and the implications of demographic change for public policy.
and Dante J. Scala
Dante J. Scala is a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire and is a fellow at the Carsey School of Public Policy. His work focuses on voter demographics, as well as campaigns and elections in the United States, particularly the presidential nomination process.

Published/Copyright: February 19, 2021

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From the journal The Forum Volume 18 Issue 4

Abstract

This study of the 2018 congressional midterms demonstrates how voting patterns and political attitudes vary across a spectrum of urban and rural areas in the United States. Rural America is no more a monolith than is urban America. The rural-urban gradient is better represented by a continuum than a dichotomy. This is evident in the voting results in 2018, just as it was in 2016. We found that the political tipping point lies beyond major metropolitan areas, in the suburban counties of smaller metropolitan areas. Democrats enjoyed even greater success in densely populated urban areas in 2018 than in 2016. Residents of these urban areas display distinctive and consistent social and political attitudes across a range of scales. At the other end of the continuum in remote rural areas, Republican candidates continued to command voter support despite the challenging national political environment. Voters in these rural regions expressed social and political attitudes diametrically opposed to their counterparts in large urban cores.

Keywords: urban America; suburban America; rural America; urban-rural continuum; regional voting; congressional elections

Corresponding author: Kenneth M. Johnson, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, USA, E-mail: Ken.Johnson@unh.edu

Funding source: Andrew Carnegie Fellowship, Carnegie Corporation of New York

About the authors

Kenneth M. Johnson

Kenneth M. Johnson is a professor of sociology and senior demographer at the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire, as well as an Andrew Carnegie Fellow. His research examines national and regional population redistribution, rural and urban demographic change, the growing racial diversity of the U.S. population, and the implications of demographic change for public policy.

Dante J. Scala

Dante J. Scala is a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire and is a fellow at the Carsey School of Public Policy. His work focuses on voter demographics, as well as campaigns and elections in the United States, particularly the presidential nomination process.

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Published Online: 2021-02-19

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https://doi.org/10.1515/for-2020-2102

Keywords for this article

urban America; suburban America; rural America; urban-rural continuum; regional voting; congressional elections