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The Myth of the Bipartisan National Popular Vote Plan

  • Jillian Evans

    Jillian Evans is a Research Associate at the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University.

    and Brian J. Gaines

    Brian J. Gaines is a Professor at the University of Illinois, with appointments in the Department of Political Science and the Institute of Government and Public Affairs.

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Published/Copyright: September 13, 2019
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Abstract

Advocates of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) promise that it can deliver plurality electoral rule (“first past the post”) for presidential elections, at the national level, without amending the Constitution or abolishing the Electoral College. They also contend that the plan has seen bipartisan support and will pass on the strength of such cross-party attraction. In fact, the NPVIC remains a polarizing scheme, strongly appealing to most Democrats and strongly repellant to most Republicans. In turn, it is extremely unlikely that sufficiently many states will join the Compact for it to reach the next stage of legal testing.

About the authors

Jillian Evans

Jillian Evans is a Research Associate at the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University.

Brian J. Gaines

Brian J. Gaines is a Professor at the University of Illinois, with appointments in the Department of Political Science and the Institute of Government and Public Affairs.

Appendix A: Details of Bills and Roll Calls

Table A1:

NPVIC Roll Calls, States in the Compact (as of July 2019).

State (2020 EC votes)Date dd.mm.yyyyBillActorVote*/Action (Y-N-other)
Maryland (10)26.03.2007SB 634Senate29-17-1

D: 29-3-1

R: 0-14-0
02.04.2007HB 148House84-54-3

D: 84-17-3

R: 0-37-0
10.04.2007O’Malley (D)Signed
New Jersey (14)13.12.2007A4225House43-32-5

D: 43-6-3

R: 0-26-2
03.01.2008S2695

(A4225)a
Senate22-13-5

D: 20-1-1

R: 2-12-4
13.01.2008Corzine (D)Signed
Illinois (20)31.05.2007HB1685bSenate37-22-0

D: 34-3-0

R: 3-19-0
09.01.2008HB1685bHouse64-50-4

D: 63-0-3

R: 1-50-1
07.04.2008Blagojevich (D)Signed
Hawaii (4)14.02.2007SB 1956Senate19-4-2

D: 18-0-2

R: 1-4-0
05.04.2007SB 1956House35-12-4

D: 35-4-4

R: 0-8-0
23.04.2007Lingle (R)Vetoed
01.05.2007(SB 1956)Senate20-5-0c

D: 20-0-0

R: 0-5-0
04.03.2008SB 2898Senate20-4-1

D: 20-0-0

R: 0-4-1
02.04.2008SB 2898House39-8-4

D: 36-4-3

R: 3-4-1
22.04.2008Lingle (R)Vetoed
01.05.2008(SB 2898)Senate20-4-1d

D: 19-1-0

R: 1-3-1
01.05.2008(SB 2898)House36-3-12d

D: 35-3-5

R: 1-0-7
Washington (12)18.02.2008SB 5628Senate30-18-1e

D: 30-1-0

R: 0-17-1
13.03.2009SB 5599Senate28-19-1

D: 28-3-0

R: 0-16-1
15.04.2009SB 5599House52-42-4

D: 52-8-2

R: 0-34-2
28.04.2009Gregoire (D)Signed
Massachusetts (11)09.07.2008H.4952House116-37-5

D: 116-19-4

R: 0-18-1
30.07.2008H.4952SenateNo roll callf
02.06.2010H.4156House114-35-9g

D: 114-21-8

R: 0-14-1
15.07.2010H.4156Senate28-10-2g

D: 28-5-2

R: 0-5-0
04.08.2010Patrick (D)Signed
D.C. (3)13.07.2010B18-0769Council11-2h

D: 9-2-0

O: 2-0-0
12.10.2010Mayor Fenty (D)Signed
Vermont (3)21.03.2008S.0270Senate22-6-2

D: 22-0-1

R: 0-6-1
25.04.2008S.0270House77-35-37

D: 65-6-22

R: 7-29-12

O: 5-0-3i
17.05.2008Douglas (R)Vetoed
27.02.2009S.0034Senate15-10-5p

D: 14-4-4

R: 0-6-1

O: 1-0-0j
22.02.2011S.0031Senate20-10-0

D: 17-3-0

R: 1-7-0

O: 2-0-0
15.04.2011S.0031House84-50-16k

D: 76-11-7

R: 2-38-8

O: 6-1-1
22.04.2011Shumin (D)Signed
California (55)30.05.2006AB 2948House49-31-0l

D: 48-0-0

R: 1-31-0
22.08.2006AB 2948Senate23-14-3

D: 23-1-1

R: 0-13-2
30.09.2006Schwarzenegger (R)Vetoed
30.06.2008SB 37House45-30-5

D: 45-0-3

R: 0-30-2
14.08.2008SB 37Senate21-16-3m

D: 21-1-2

R: 0-15-1
30.09.2008Schwarzenegger (R)Vetoed
19.05.2011AB 459House51-21-8

D: 47-0-5

R: 4-21-3
14.07.2011AB 459Senate23-15-2

D: 23-1-1

R: 0-14-1
08.08.2011Brown (D)Signed
Rhode Island (4)27.05.2008S.2112Senate27-10-1

D: 27-5-1

R: 0-5-0
20.06.2008S.2112House34-28-12

D: 32-16-11

R: 2-12-1
02.07.2008S.2112Carcieri (R)Vetoedn
19.05.2009S.161Senate26-9-3p

D: 26-4-3

R: 0-4-0

I: 0-1-0
16.06.2011S.164Senate30-4-4p

D: 23-3-3

R: 6-1-1

I: 1-0-0
13.06.2013S.346Senate30-4-4

D: 26-2-4

R: 4-1-0

I: 0-1-0
13.06.2013H.5575House41-31-3

D: 41-25-3

R: 0-6-0
02.07.2013H.5575Senate32-5-1o

D: 29-2-1

R: 3-2-0

I: 0-1-0
12.07.2013Chafee (I)Signed
New York (29)07.06.2010S2286ASenate52-7-3p

D: 30-2-0

R: 22-5-3
07.06.2011S4208Senate47-13-2p

D: 26-2-2

R: 21-11-0
12.06.2013A4422aHouse100-40-7

D: 78-20-7

R: 22-20-0
25.03.2014S3149aSenate57-4-0

D: 30-2-0q

R: 27-2-0
25.03.2014S3149aHouse102-33-5r

D: 81-15-4

R: 21-18-1
15.04.2014Cuomo (D)Signed
17.05.2016S. 5478Senate53-5-5s

D: 25-4-2

R: 28-1-3
14.06.2016A. 6044House106-36-6s

D: 85-15-4

R: 19-21-2

O: 2-0-0
07.11.2016Cuomo (D)Signed
Connecticut (7)12.05.2009HB 6437House76-69-6 p

D: 76-34-4

R: 0-35-2
26.04.2018HB 5421House77-73-0

D: 76-3-0

R: 1-70-0
05.05.2018HB 5421Senate21-14-1t

D: 18-0-0

R: 3-14-1
24.05.2018Malloy (D)Signed
Colorado (9)17.04.2006SB06-223Senate20-15-0p

D: 18-0-0

R: 2-15-0
24.01.2007SB07-046Senate19-15-1p

D: 19-1-0

R: 0-14-1
17.03.2009HB09-1299House34-29-2 p

D: 34-3-1

R: 0-26-1
29.01.2019SB19-042Senate19-16-0

D: 19-0-0

R: 0-16-0
21.02.2019SB19-042House34-29-1

D: 34-6-1

R: 0-23-0
15.03.2019Polis (D)Signed
Delaware (3)24.06.2009HB 198House23-12-6p

D: 20-2-2

R: 3-10-4
07.06.2011HB 55House21-16-4p

D: 21-1-4

R: 0-15-0
07.03.2019SB 22Senate14-7-0

D: 12-0-0

R: 2-7-0
14.03.2019SB 22House24-17-0

D: 24-2-0

R: 0-15-0
28.03.2019Carney (D)Signed
New Mexico (5)20.02.2009HB 383House41-27-2p

D: 41-2-2

R: 0-25-0
20.02.2017SB 42Senate26-16-0p

D: 26-0-0

R: 0-16-0
01.02.2019HB 55House41-27-2

D: 41-3-2

R: 0-24-0
12.03.2019HB 55Senate25-16-1

D: 25-0-1

R: 0-16-0
03.04.2019Lujan Grisham (D)Signed
Oregon (7)09.03.2009HB 2588House39-19-2p

D: 31-4-1

R: 8-15-1
18.04.2013HB 3077House38-21-1p

D: 31-2-1

R: 7-19-0
18.05.2015HB 3475House37-21-2p

D: 33-1-1

R: 4-20-1
24.05.2017HB 2927House34-23-3p

D: 34-0-1

R: 0-23-2
09.04.2019SB 870Senate17-12-1

D: 15-3-0

R: 2-9-1
05.06.2019SB 870House37-22-1

D: 37-0-1

R: 0-22-0
12.06.2019Brown (D)Signed
  1. *For legislative chambers, third-reading passage, unless otherwise indicated below. “Other” votes include excused absence, absence, abstention, “present”, presiding without voting, and not voting. Seat vacancies are excluded from totals.

  2. aA4225 was substituted for S2695 by voice vote before the Third Reading and final-passage vote in the Senate.

  3. bHB 1685, which passed the Illinois House on third reading on April 19, 2007, was a bill to permit junior high school students to be election judges. On May 31, 2007, the Senate passed an amendment to substitute a wholly unrelated bill joining the National Popular Vote compact, which passed. The January 2008 House vote was concurrence in the Senate amendment.

  4. cOver-ride of Governor Lingle’s veto fails when House adjourns.

  5. dOver-ride of Governor Lingle’s veto succeeds (required 2/3 vote in each chamber).

  6. eWashington House returned SB5628 to the Senate Rules Committee by resolution, March 13, 2008.

  7. fOn July 30, 2008, the Massachusetts Senate voted down a substitute amendment to H.4952, calling upon the US Congress to investigate “…whether the Electoral College should be abolished and replaced with a national popular vote through the passage of an amendment to the Constitution of the United States…” by 27 N to 9 Y, with 3 not voting. The original bill then passed under suspended rules without a roll call. However, July 31 was the final session day, and the Senate did not pass a vote, required under Massachusetts law, to transmit the bill to the Governor. (See http://www.mass.gov/legis/journal/185/sj073008.htm).

  8. gThe June 2 House roll call passed the bill to be engrossed. On July 20, 2012, the House enacted the bill, by a vote of 116-34 (D: 116-19-7, R: 0-15-0). The Senate July 15 roll call passed the bill to be engrossed, 28-10. It was enacted July 27, by a 28-9 vote.

  9. hThe D.C. council passed the bill on first reading in a vote as Committee of the Whole in July, then subsequently passed it by unanimous consent on September 21, 2010. The two “other” members were independents, and there were no Republican members of the council.

  10. i“Other” members in the Vermont House in 2008 were 2 independents and 6 Progressives, 3 of whom won election with both Progressive and Democratic nominations and one of whom won election with Progressive, Democratic, and Republican nominations.

  11. j“Other” member in Vermont Senate in 2009 was a Progressive.

  12. kVermont’s House passed S.0031 on Third Reading on April 14, 2011, by 84-50, and then passed it in a final-passage vote on April 15, 2011 by 85-44. All switching between votes involved abstention on one or the other, with only one exception: Democrat Chip Conquest of Newbury voted Nay on Third Reading and Yea on final passage. “Other” members were 5 Progressives and 3 independents.

  13. lThird-reading passage. The Assembly later concurred in Senate Amendments, on August 30, 2006, by a nearly identical vote of 48-30. One Democrat, Hector De La Torre, missed the second vote, and one seat had, in the interim, become vacant when Republican John Harman won a special election to the state Senate in June 2006.

  14. mSenate concurring in House amendments. Original Third-Reading, Passage vote in Senate took place May 14, 2007, more than a year prior. That vote was 22-14-4. Between September 11, 2007 and May 29, 2008, the Assembly had the bill in the inactive file. All 7 switches involved abstention on one of the two votes.

  15. nVeto not over-ridden (no vote took place in either chamber).

  16. oConcurrence in House bill.

  17. pNo roll calls in House (Senate) despite passage in Senate (House).

  18. qDemocratic totals include 5 “Independent Democrats” and 1 “Democrat” who caucused with Republicans, plus 2 ex-Democrats expelled from the party’s caucus following indictment or arrest. All 8 voted for the bill.

  19. rSubstitution of Senate bill S3149a for House bill 4422a.

  20. sBills to remove expiration date (end of 2018) from 2014 law.

  21. tPass in concurrence, following defeat of amendment A LCO 5386, which would have substituted a congressional-district plan (as in use in Maine and Nebraska) for the NPV bill.

Table A2:

NPVIC Roll Calls, States Not in the Compact (as of July 2019).

State (2020 EC votes)Date dd.mm.yyyyBillActorVote* (Y-N-other)
Arizona (11)04.02.2016HB 2456House40-16-4a

D: 20-2-2

R: 20-14-2
Arkansas (6)21.03.2007H 1703House52-41-7a

D: 50-18-7

R: 2-23-0
25.02.2009HB 1339House55-43-1a

D: 55-15-1

R: 0-28-0
Louisiana (8)07.05.2012HB 1095House29-64-12c

D: 29-7-8

R: 0-55-4

O: 0-2-0d
Maine (4)02.04.2008LD 1744Senate18-17-0b

D: 17-1-0

R: 1-16-0
02.02.2010LD 56House50-98-6c

D: 49-44-4

R: 0-53-2

O: 1-1-0d
02.04.2014LD 511Senate17-17-1c

D: 16-3-0

R: 0-14-1

O: 1-0-0d
03.04.2014LD 511House60-85-6c

D: 57-28-4

R: 0-56-2

O: 3-1-0d
30.03.2017LD 156House66-73-12c

D: 63-6-5

R: 0-64-6

O: 3-3-1
04.04.2017LD 156Senate21-14-0f

D: 3-14-0

R: 18-0-0
14.05.2019LD 816Senate19-16-0g

D: 19-2-0

R: 0-14-0
17.06.2019LD 816House68-79-4g

D: 66-20-3

R: 0-55-1

O: 2-4-0
Michigan (16)11.12.2008HB 6610House65-36-9a

D: 46-6-6

R: 19-30-3
Minnesota (10)30.04.2019SF 2227House73-58-3h

D: 73-0-2

R: 0-58-1
Montana (4)08.02.2007SB 290Senate20-30c

D:19-7-0

R: 1-23-0
Nevada (6)21.04.2009AB 413House27-14-1a

D: 27-0-1

R: 0-14-0
16.04.2019AB 186House23-17-2

D: 23-5-1

R: 0-12-1
21.05.2019AB 186Senate12-8-1

D: 12-0-1

R: 0-8-0
30.05.2019Sisolak (D)Vetoed
New Hampshire (4)09.03.2017HB 447House234-132-29c,i

D: 31-130-9

R: 201-1-20

O: 2-1-0
N. Carolina (15)14.05.2007SB 954Senate30-18-2b

D: 30-0-1

R: 0-18-1
N. Dakota (3)08.02.2007HR 1336House31-60-3c

D: 27-5-1

R: 4-55-2
Oklahoma (7)14.02.2014SB 906Senate28-18-2b

D: 12-0-0

R: 16-18-2
  1. *Third-reading passage, unless otherwise indicated below. “Other” votes include excused absence, absence, abstention, “present”, presiding without voting, and not voting. Vacant seats are excluded from totals.

  2. aPassed House, not passed by Senate.

  3. bPassed Senate, not passed by House.

  4. cFailed to pass.

  5. d“Other” legislators were as follows: in the 2012 Louisiana House, independent members Jerome (Dee) Richard (elected in the 55th district over only Republican opposition in 2011, only Democratic opposition in 2007, and with no opposition in 2015) and Terry Brown (elected in the 22nd district over only Republican opposition in both 2011 and 2015); in the 2010 Maine House, yes-voting James J. Campbell (elected in the 138th district as a Republican in 2008, but later elected as an independent, over only a Republican opponent, in 2012 and 2014) and no-voting Tom Saviello (elected as a Democrat in 2002 and 2004, but un-enrolled from that party in 2005, and later elected to the Maine Senate as a Republican, in 2010, 2012, and 2014, before he again un-enrolled); in the 2014 Maine Senate, Richard Woodbury (elected over only Republican opposition in 2012); in the 2014 Maine House, Campbell again, now voting no, Joseph Brooks (elected over only Republican opposition in the 42nd district in 2012), Jeffrey Evangelos (elected over only Republican opposition in the 49th district in 2012), and Benjamin Chipman (elected over both a Republican and a Democrat in the 119th district in 2012).

  6. eThe Maine 2008 Senate and 2010 House roll calls were votes on accepting majority reports (“ought to pass”) from Legal and Veteran’s Affairs Committees. The 2008 Senate vote was preceded by two failed votes (both 17-17-1), first, to accept the majority report (ought to pass) and, second, to accept the minority report (ought not to pass) on March 10. Those ties were broken in April by one Republican (Hastings) who had been absent, voting no, but another (Mills) switching from supporting the minority and opposing the majority report (no-yes) to supporting the majority report (yes). All other senators voted consistently across the three roll calls.

  7. fThe Maine 2017 House roll call was a vote on accepting a minority committee report (“ought to pass”). When it failed, the majority report (“ought not to pass”) was subsequently accepted and sent to the Senate for concurrence. The Senate roll call was a vote to concur with the “ought not to pass” report.

  8. gThe 2019 roll calls on LD 816 (SP 252) in Maine were unusually complicated, with the Senate voting once in May and twice in June, and the House voting twice in May and five times in June. The unusual proliferation of votes reflected both inter-chamber conflict and uncertainty or wavering within the House caucuses.

  9. hSF 2227 was an omnibus state government finance bill that was amended in the House, but not the Senate, to include multiple changes to Minnesota election law. In addition to joining the NPV compact, the bill would have restored voting rights to former felons, established an independent redistricting commission, and allowed more cities to adopt ranked choice voting, among other provisions. A conference committee was discharged in May 2019.

  10. iIn the New Hampshire House, the bill to join the NPVIC was reported out of the Election Law committee as “inexpedient to legislate” (ITL). The roll call was a vote to adopt the committee’s report, so voting “yes” on the ITL motion amounted to opposing the NPV plan.

Appendix B: Authors and Endorsers of Every Vote Equal and NPVIC

NameRolePartyParty-Code Explanation
John R. KozaAuthor (1st)
Barry F. FademAuthor (2nd)
Mark GrueskinAuthor (3rd)
Michael S. MandellAuthor (4th)
Robert RichieAuthor (5th)
Joseph F. ZimmermanAuthor (6th)
John B. Anderson (1922–2017)Foreword 1R, IRepublican US Representative, 1961–1981 (elected 10 times to the 16th district of IL); independent presidential candidate, 1980
Birch Bayh (1928–2019)Foreword 2, Adv. BdDDemocrat, state representative (IN), elected four times (1954, 1956, 1958, 1960); won three elections to US Senate (1962, 1968, 1974) before losing re-election bid in 1980
John Hall Buchanan, Jr. (1928–2018)Foreword 3, Adv. BdRFollowing various positions in state GOP, elected to US House as a Republican (AL 6th) eight times, 1964–1978
Tom Campbell (1952–)Foreword 4, Adv. BdR, IWon elections to US House (1988, 1990, 1995, 1996, 1998) and CA Senate (1993) and lost 2000 election for US Senate, all as a Republican; also lost Republican primaries for US Senate in 1992 and 2010; officially change registration to Independent in 2016
Gregory G. Aghazarian (1964–)Foreword 5RElected to 26th district in CA Assembly in 2002, 2004, 2006; defeated in run for 5th district of CA Senate in 2008, all as Republican
Saul Anuzis (1959–)Foreword 6RGOP Convention delegate 1980, held various positions within MI GOP, Chair MI GOP 2005–2009, unsuccessful candidate for RNC Chair, 2009, 2011
Laura Brod (1971–)Foreword 7RWon election to the MN House (district 25A) four times as a Republican, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008
James L. Brulte (1956–)Foreword 8RElected to CA Assembly 1990 (65th district), 1992, 1994 (63rd district), and to CA Senate 1996, 2000 (31st district), Chair of CA GOP, 2013–
B. Thomas Golisano (1941–)Foreword 9IFounder of Independence party, NY gubernatorial candidate for IP in 1994, 1998, 2002
Joseph Griffo (1956–)Foreword 10RElected mayor of Rome NY, 1991, 1995, 1999; county Executive, 2003; NY Senate (district 47) 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, all with Republican, and Conservative nominations, also with Independence nomination, except 2006
Ray Haynes (1954–)Foreword 11RElected to CA Assembly (66th district) in 1992, 2002, 2004; elected to CA Senate (36th district) in 1994 and 1998; failed to advance in primary for US House (CA 36th) in 2014, all as a Republican
Robert A. Holmes (1943–)Foreword 12DServed as a Democratic representative in the GA General Assembly from 1974 to 2009
Dean Murray (1964–)Foreword 13R/C/IElected to the NY Assembly (District 3) in 2010; defeated in 2012; re-elected in 2014, all with Republican, Conservative, and Independence Party nominations
Thomas L. Pearce (1956–)Foreword 14RServed as a Republican member of the MI House of Representatives from 2005 to 2011
Christopher Pearson (1973–)Foreword 15D/PAppointed to fill a vacancy in the VT House in 2006; elected in 2010, 2012, 2014; elected to VT Senate (Chittenden district) in 2016; all as a Progressive/Democrat
Jake Garn (1932–)Foreword 16, Adv. BdRElected to Salt Lake City commission, served as mayor 1972–1774; elected to US Senate from UT, 1974, 1980, 1986, all as a Republican
Chet Culver (1966–)“champion”DElected IA Secretary of State in 1998 and 2002; elected governor of IA in 2006; defeated for reelection in 2010, all as a Democrat
James Edgar (1946–)“champion”RElected to IL House (district 53) 1976, 1978; IL Secretary of State, 1982, 1986; Governor of IL, 1990, 1994, all as Republican
Freddie Dalton (Fred) Thompson (1942–2015)“champion”RRepublican campaign manager 1972; elected to US Senate for TN, 1994, 1996, as Republican
David Durenberger (1934–)Adv. BdRRepublican US Senator from MN, 1978–1995 (won elections in 1978, 1982, 1988)
Tom Downey (1949–)Adv. Bd.DDelegate to the Democratic National Convention in 1972; Democratic US House member (NY 2nd), 1975–1993

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Published Online: 2019-09-13

©2019 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

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