Was it a Wave? What does it Mean?
-
Kenneth M. Goldstein
Ken Goldstein is Professor of Politics at the University of San Francisco and Director of the USF in DC program.
and
Mathew J. Dallek
Matthew J. Dallek is Assistant Professor at George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management.
Abstract
In the instant analysis that followed, pundits dubbed the 2014 midterms an election “wave” for the Republican Party. Our article argues that “wave” is one of the most abused terms in American political discourse. Although political waves do exist, our article argues that they come in a variety of shapes, are created by a constellation of factors beyond anti-incumbency, and can have a number of different effects on the next national election cycle. Our analysis shows that the 2014 wave (if there was a wave in the ocean) was neither as large as pundits suggested nor as politically impactful as some spinners have claimed. Elections are determined by terrain and climate, both of which favored Republicans in 2014. Republicans captured or defended Senate seats where they should have in nine deep-red states. Focusing on gubernatorial and Senate campaigns in seven purple states, we see that Republicans won eight out of the 12 contests and five out of the nine most competitive contests. Although there has been an immense amount of attention to turnout, our analysis demonstrates that Republican victories were sometimes due to turnout, sometimes due to performance among independents, and sometimes due to a combination of these factors. This mixed picture complicates the analysis of the Republican victories, suggesting that the Rising American Electorate (youth, minorities, women) will not simply carry the Democrats to victory in 2016, and that anti-Obama public opinion alone will not be enough to deliver the White House to Republicans. It also provides yet more evidence that there is not a one-size-fits-all strategy when it comes to campaign focus and targeting.
About the authors
Ken Goldstein is Professor of Politics at the University of San Francisco and Director of the USF in DC program.
Matthew J. Dallek is Assistant Professor at George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management.
References
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©2014 by De Gruyter
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Introduction
- The 2014 Midterm in the Longest Run: The Puzzle of a Modern Era
- The Republican Wave of 2014: The Continuity of the 2012 and 2014 Elections
- Was it a Wave? What does it Mean?
- The 2014 House Elections: Political Analysis and The Enduring Importance of Demographics
- Constitutional Design and 2014 Senate Election Outcomes
- Political Advertising in 2014: The Year of the Outside Group
- Interest Group Issue Appeals: Evidence of Issue Convergence in Senate and Presidential Elections, 2008–2014
- Money in the 2014 Congressional Elections: Institutionalizing a Broken Regulatory System
- Preference Dynamics in the 2014 Congressional Midterm Elections
- Still Crazy after All These Years: The Polarized Politics of the Roberts Court Continue
- Book reviews
- Resilient America
- The Invisible Bridge: The Fall of Nixon and the Rise of Reagan
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Introduction
- The 2014 Midterm in the Longest Run: The Puzzle of a Modern Era
- The Republican Wave of 2014: The Continuity of the 2012 and 2014 Elections
- Was it a Wave? What does it Mean?
- The 2014 House Elections: Political Analysis and The Enduring Importance of Demographics
- Constitutional Design and 2014 Senate Election Outcomes
- Political Advertising in 2014: The Year of the Outside Group
- Interest Group Issue Appeals: Evidence of Issue Convergence in Senate and Presidential Elections, 2008–2014
- Money in the 2014 Congressional Elections: Institutionalizing a Broken Regulatory System
- Preference Dynamics in the 2014 Congressional Midterm Elections
- Still Crazy after All These Years: The Polarized Politics of the Roberts Court Continue
- Book reviews
- Resilient America
- The Invisible Bridge: The Fall of Nixon and the Rise of Reagan
