Abstract
Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) revenues are increasingly being discussed as a potential new EU own resource. The aim of this paper is to quantify the revenue potential of the CBAM for the EU budget until 2035. Furthermore, this paper examines the distributional implications of CBAM revenues for Member States. It proposes a methodology to quantify the revenue potential of CBAM and calculates a number of revenue scenarios. The distribution of CBAM revenue among all Member States is compared with the distribution of the GNI-based resource in order to illustrate the distributional effects. According to these results, the annual revenue potential of the CBAM is of the order of €1 billion in the first years after its introduction, rising to around €14 billion by 2035. The distributional effects compared to GNI proportionality are small. The scenario analysis shows the sensitivity of the CBAM revenue forecasts, as they depend crucially on various parameters.
Acknowledgment
I thank Friedrich Heinemann for his guidance as supervisor of this paper. His support and comments throughout the process made this paper possible.
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© 2024 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Frontmatter
- Editorial
- Editorial: Productivity Growth in the Age of AI
- Policy Papers (No Special Focus)
- Inflation and Fiscal Policy: Is There a Threshold Effect in the Fiscal Reaction Function?
- Whither the Walking Dead? The Consequences of Artificial Intelligence for Zombie Firms
- The Energy Transition and Its Macroeconomic Effects
- The Potential and Distributional Effects of CBAM Revenues as a New EU Own Resource
- Will Geopolitics Accelerate China’s Drive Towards De-Dollarization?
- The Political Economy of Academic Freedom
- Policy Forum: Productivity Growth in the Age of AI
- Macroeconomic Productivity Effects of Artificial Intelligence
- New Technologies: End of Work or Structural Change?
- The AI Revolution: A New Paradigm of Economic Order
- The Interplay of Humans, Technology, and Organizations in Realizing AI’s Productivity Promise
- How Can Artificial Intelligence Transform Asset Management?
- Is the EU’s AI Act Merely a Distraction from Europe’s Productivity Problem?
- AI in Europe – Is Regulation the Answer to Being a Laggard?
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Frontmatter
- Editorial
- Editorial: Productivity Growth in the Age of AI
- Policy Papers (No Special Focus)
- Inflation and Fiscal Policy: Is There a Threshold Effect in the Fiscal Reaction Function?
- Whither the Walking Dead? The Consequences of Artificial Intelligence for Zombie Firms
- The Energy Transition and Its Macroeconomic Effects
- The Potential and Distributional Effects of CBAM Revenues as a New EU Own Resource
- Will Geopolitics Accelerate China’s Drive Towards De-Dollarization?
- The Political Economy of Academic Freedom
- Policy Forum: Productivity Growth in the Age of AI
- Macroeconomic Productivity Effects of Artificial Intelligence
- New Technologies: End of Work or Structural Change?
- The AI Revolution: A New Paradigm of Economic Order
- The Interplay of Humans, Technology, and Organizations in Realizing AI’s Productivity Promise
- How Can Artificial Intelligence Transform Asset Management?
- Is the EU’s AI Act Merely a Distraction from Europe’s Productivity Problem?
- AI in Europe – Is Regulation the Answer to Being a Laggard?