Startseite Quantifying the influence of location of residence on blood pressure in urbanising South India: a path analysis with multiple mediators
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Quantifying the influence of location of residence on blood pressure in urbanising South India: a path analysis with multiple mediators

  • Tina B. Sørensen ORCID logo EMAIL logo , Stijn Vansteelandt , Robin Wilson , John Gregson , Bhavani Shankar , Sanjay Kinra und Alan D. Dangour
Veröffentlicht/Copyright: 14. April 2021
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Epidemiologic Methods
Aus der Zeitschrift Epidemiologic Methods Band 10 Heft 1

Abstract

Objectives: The current study aims to estimate the causal effect of increasing levels of urbanisation on mean SBP, and to decompose the direct and indirect effects via hypothesised mediators.

Methods: We analysed data from 5, 840 adults (≥ 18 years) from the Andhra Pradesh Children and Parents study (APCAPS) conducted in 27 villages in Telangana, South India. The villages experienced different amounts of urbanisation during preceding decades and ranged from a rural village to a medium sized town. We estimated urbanisation levels of surveyed villages by combining remote sensing data of night-time light intensity (NTLI), measured by unitless digital numbers, with satellite imagery and ground surveying of village boundaries. We performed mediation analysis using linear mixed-effects models with SBP as the outcome, log-transformed continuous NTLI as the exposure, and three composite mediators summarising information on (i) socio-demographics (e.g., occupation and education); (ii) lifestyle and mental health (e.g., diet and depression); (iii) metabolic factors (e.g., fasting glucose and triglycerides). All models fitted random intercepts to account for clustering by villages and households and adjusted for confounders.

Results: The NTLI range across the 27 villages was 62 to 1081 (4.1 to 7.0 on the log scale). Mean SBP was 122.7 mmHg (±15.7) among men and 115.8 mmHg (±14.2) among women. One unit (integer) log-NTLI increase was associated with a rise in mean SBP of 2.1 mmHg (95% CI 0.6, 3.5) among men and 1.3 mmHg (95% CI 0.0, 2.6) among women. We identified a positive indirect effect of log-NTLI on SBP via the metabolic pathway, where one log-NTLI increase elevated SBP by 4.6 mmHg (95% CI 2.0, 7.3) among men and by 0.7 mmHg (95% 0.1, 1.3) among women. There was a positive indirect effect of log-NTLI on SBP via the lifestyle and mental health pathway among men, where one log-NTLI increase elevated SBP by 0.7 mmHg (95% CI 0.1, 1.3). Observed negative direct effects of log-NTLI on SBP and positive indirect effects via the socio-demographic pathway among both genders; as well as a positive indirect effect via the lifestyle and mental health pathway among women, were not statistically significant at the 5% level. The sizes of effects were approximately doubled among participants ≥40 years of age.

Conclusion: Our findings offer new insights into the pathways via which urbanisation level may act on blood pressure. Large indirect effects via metabolic factors, independent of socio-demographic, lifestyle and mental health factors identify a need to understand better the indirect effects of environmental cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors that change with urbanisation. We encourage researchers to use causal methods in further quantification of path-specific effects of place of residence on CVDs and risk factors. Available evidence-based, cost-effective interventions that target upstream determinants of CVDs should be implemented across all socio-demographic gradients in India.

Keywords: blood pressure; cardiovascular disease (CVD); causal inference; CVD risk factor; epidemiology; mediation analysis; pathway; path analysis; SBP; urbanisation level
Corresponding author: Tina B. Sørensen, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London WC1E 7HT, UK, Phone: +44 (0) 2072994723, E-mail:

Funding source: The Bloomsbury Colleges PhD StudentshipWellcome TrustSustainable and Healthy Food Systems (SHEFS) programme supported by the Wellcome Trust’s ‘Our Planet, Our Health’ programme

Award Identifier / Grant number: 083707

Award Identifier / Grant number: 205200/Z/16/Z

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank the APCAPS team and support staff. We would like to acknowledge the contributions of Dr Rashmi Pant who constructed the socio-economic status variable; Dr Liza Bowen, Ms Poppy Mallinson and Dr Lukasz Aleksandrowicz who contributed to deriving nutrition and other variables. We extend our gratitude to statisticians Associate Professor Karla Diaz-Ordaz for advising on multiple imputations and Associate Professor Daniel Altmann for advising on matrix expressions. Also, a big thanks to Dr Stephen Nash and Dr Ruth Farmer for helpful discussions on statistics and epidemiology as well as manuscript reviews.

  1. Research funding: This work was supported by Wellcome Trust (www.wellcome.ac.uk/) grant number 083707 and the Bloomsbury PhD Studentship (http://www.bloomsbury.ac.uk/) to the corresponding author through LSHTM, London, UK. Professor Alan D Dangour and Professor Bhavani Shankar acknowledge the Sustainable and Healthy Food Systems (SHEFS) programme supported by the Wellcome Trust’s ‘Our Planet, Our Health’ programme (grant no. 205200/Z/16/Z).

  2. Author contribution: All authors contributed to study conception, revised the manuscript critically, approved the final manuscript for publication and agreed to be accountable for the work. Professor Stijn Vansteelandt advised on causal methodology and inference and prepared the mathematical appendix. Dr John Gregson provided additional advice on the statistical analysis. Professor Stijn Vansteelandt and Dr Tina Bonde Sorensen developed the analysis strategy. Dr Robin Wilson extracted the night-time light intensity (NTLI) data; calibrated and prepared the NTLI data for statistical analysis and produced Figure 2. Dr Tina Bonde Sorensen and Dr John Gregson performed data management of the Andhra Pradesh Children and Parents Study data. Dr Tina Bonde Sorensen analysed the data and produced tables and figures (except Figure 2), interpreted analyses and drafted the manuscript. Professor Alan D Dangour provided expertise on epidemiology, nutrition and health and Professor Sanjay Kinra provided expertise on epidemiology and cardiovascular diseases.

  3. Competing interests: Authors state no conflict ofinterests.

  4. Informed consent: Study participants provided written informed consent or a witnessed thumbprint if illiterate prior to study start.

  5. Ethical approval: We received ethical approvals from Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India; National Institute of Nutrition, Hyderabad, India; and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, UK. Approvals were also obtained from all village heads and their committees.

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Supplementary Material

The online version of this article offers supplementary material (https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2019-0035).

Received: 2019-12-05
Revised: 2021-01-06
Accepted: 2021-03-10
Published Online: 2021-04-14

© 2021 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

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  3. A simplified approach to bias estimation for correlations
  4. Gamma frailty model for survival risk estimation: an application to cancer data
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  9. Sampling from networks: respondent-driven sampling
  10. Reviewer Acknowledgment
  11. Reviewer acknowledgment
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https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2019-0035
Schlagwörter für diesen Artikel
blood pressure; cardiovascular disease (CVD); causal inference; CVD risk factor; epidemiology; mediation analysis; pathway; path analysis; SBP; urbanisation level

Artikel in diesem Heft

  1. Research Articles
  2. Determinants of birth-intervals in Algeria: a semi-Markov model analysis
  3. A simplified approach to bias estimation for correlations
  4. Gamma frailty model for survival risk estimation: an application to cancer data
  5. Analysis for transmission of dengue disease with different class of human population
  6. Quantifying the influence of location of residence on blood pressure in urbanising South India: a path analysis with multiple mediators
  7. Mixed methods to assess the use of rare illicit psychoactive substances: a case study
  8. Reliability of fetal–infant mortality rates in perinatal periods of risk (PPOR) analysis
  9. Sampling from networks: respondent-driven sampling
  10. Reviewer Acknowledgment
  11. Reviewer acknowledgment
  12. Tutorial
  13. A guide to value of information methods for prioritising research in health impact modelling
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