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Trust in Government in a Changing World: Shocks, Tax Evasion, and Economic Growth

  • James Alm and Raul A. Barreto EMAIL logo
Published/Copyright: March 5, 2024
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics
From the journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics Volume 24 Issue 1

Abstract

Governments are always dealing with unexpected shocks, like wars, terrorism, financial crises, natural disasters, and the like. A recent prominent example is the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Since early 2020, governments around the world have enacted a range of unprecedented measures in an attempt to protect their citizens, with quite mixed results. This varied record has in turn had dramatic effects on peoples’ perceptions of their government, especially on their trust in government and so on their willingness to obey the many government mandates generated by the pandemic. This willingness to obey government mandates extends well beyond pandemic policies to all other dimensions of government laws and regulations. An important dimension of individual compliance with government mandates is tax evasion. What will be the effects of the pandemic and the associated government policies on post-pandemic tax evasion and economic growth, especially via the effects of government policies on “trust” in the government? In this paper we incorporate both tax evasion and trust in an endogenous growth model in order to examine the short and long run impacts on tax evasion of various shocks – a pandemic shock, a government policies shock, and a tax morale shock (and the resulting impact on trust in government). We then use real data on 11 representative economies to simulate these effects, economies representing developed and developing countries as well as economies representing governments that opted for various policy responses to COVID-19, modelled as a labor productivity shock. We find that varied public policy responses to the pandemic have immediate and persistent impacts on tax evasion in the short and long run, largely via their effects on trust in government. We also find that these evasion impacts vary in important and predictable ways that depend especially on whether government dealt effectively or not with the pandemic. Our methodology is readily adapted to examine the effects of other shocks and their respective policy responses on trust in government, tax evasion, and economic growth.

Keywords: COVID-19; tax evasion and tax compliance; trust; endogenous growth models
JEL Classification: H26; H30; O40
Corresponding author: Raul A. Barreto, School of Economics, The University of Adelaide, Nexus 10, Floor 4, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia, E-mail:

The authors have no financial arrangements that might give rise to conflicts of interest with respect to the research reported in this paper, and the authors declare no competing interests. We are grateful to the editor and two anonymous reviewers for especially helpful comments and suggestions.

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Received: 2023-07-24
Accepted: 2024-02-01
Published Online: 2024-03-05

© 2024 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

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  1. Frontmatter
  2. Advances
  3. Optimal Taxation of Informal Firms: Misreporting Costs and a Tax Reform in Brazil
  4. Initial Beliefs Uncertainty
  5. Credit Resource Misallocation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in China: From the Perspective of Heterogeneous Financial Frictions
  6. The Bitcoin Premium: A Persistent Puzzle
  7. Contributions
  8. Intermediate Goods–Skill Complementarity
  9. Perfect Competition and Fixed Costs: The Role of the Ownership Structure
  10. Optimal Monetary Policy with Government-Provided Unemployment Benefits
  11. Employment Protection in Dual Labor Markets: Any Amplification of Macroeconomic Shocks?
  12. A Tide that Lifts Some Boats: Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of EU Enlargement
  13. Current Account Balances’ Divergence in the Euro Area: An Appraisal of the Underlying Forces
  14. Merging Structural and Reduced-Form Models for Forecasting
  15. Trust in Government in a Changing World: Shocks, Tax Evasion, and Economic Growth
  16. The Fiscal Multiplier of Public Investment: The Role of Corporate Balance Sheet
  17. Does Uncertainty Matter for the Fiscal Consolidation and Investment Nexus?
  18. Government Spending Between Active and Passive Monetary Policy: An Invariance Result
  19. A DSGE Model with Government-owned Banks
https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2024-0014
Keywords for this article
COVID-19; tax evasion and tax compliance; trust; endogenous growth models

Articles in the same Issue

  1. Frontmatter
  2. Advances
  3. Optimal Taxation of Informal Firms: Misreporting Costs and a Tax Reform in Brazil
  4. Initial Beliefs Uncertainty
  5. Credit Resource Misallocation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in China: From the Perspective of Heterogeneous Financial Frictions
  6. The Bitcoin Premium: A Persistent Puzzle
  7. Contributions
  8. Intermediate Goods–Skill Complementarity
  9. Perfect Competition and Fixed Costs: The Role of the Ownership Structure
  10. Optimal Monetary Policy with Government-Provided Unemployment Benefits
  11. Employment Protection in Dual Labor Markets: Any Amplification of Macroeconomic Shocks?
  12. A Tide that Lifts Some Boats: Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of EU Enlargement
  13. Current Account Balances’ Divergence in the Euro Area: An Appraisal of the Underlying Forces
  14. Merging Structural and Reduced-Form Models for Forecasting
  15. Trust in Government in a Changing World: Shocks, Tax Evasion, and Economic Growth
  16. The Fiscal Multiplier of Public Investment: The Role of Corporate Balance Sheet
  17. Does Uncertainty Matter for the Fiscal Consolidation and Investment Nexus?
  18. Government Spending Between Active and Passive Monetary Policy: An Invariance Result
  19. A DSGE Model with Government-owned Banks
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