Cannabis Legalization: Social Risk Assessment and Economic Forecast

Sevar Mammadova; Aysel Guliyeva; Tatiana Kvasnikova; Anna Serebrennikova; Yuliya Tikhonova

doi:10.1515/ael-2023-0088

Article

Cannabis Legalization: Social Risk Assessment and Economic Forecast

Sevar Mammadova , Aysel Guliyeva , Tatiana Kvasnikova , Anna Serebrennikova and Yuliya Tikhonova

Published/Copyright: December 25, 2023

Published by

Become an author with De Gruyter Brill

Submit Manuscript Author Information Explore this Subject

From the journal Accounting, Economics, and Law: A Convivium Volume 15 Issue 4

Abstract

The paper considers the problem of the economic feasibility of cannabis legalization in the Russian Federation. The paper also analyzes attitudes towards cannabis legalization among 584 residents (291 female and 293 male, 18.8 ± 1.4 for men, 18.3 ± 1.6 for women) from two different Russian regions (with the highest (Republic of Khakassia, Chelyabinsk Region, Moscow Region, Amur Region, and Saint-Petersburg) and lowest (Chukotka Autonomous District, Nenets Autonomous District, Chechen Republic, Arkhangelsk Region, and Orel Region) per capita drug use in the Russian Federation). All participants were interviewed via the Internet. In the first stage, a keyword analysis categorized articles into medical (48 %) and non-medical (52 %) cannabis use, revealing varied perspectives on its benefits and risks. The second stage surveyed Russian citizens, indicating regional differences in attitudes toward cannabis legalization based on per capita drug use. The third stage conducted a PEST analysis, highlighting economic consequences and offering recommendations. Practical implications include the need for targeted prevention programs, effective curriculum modules, and collaborative efforts to address the complex challenges associated with cannabis legalization. The study found that the public attitude towards the legalization of drugs for non-medical purposes is negative. In regions with the highest per capita soft drug use, the legalization of non-medical cannabis is unlikely to cause an increase in the level of usage. Teenagers living in regional centers tend to be more engaged in trying and using cannabis (11.9 %) compared to other cities (8.8 %, p ≤ 0.05) and rural areas, where the rate of cannabis use was the lowest (5.4 %, p ≤ 0.05). This research underscores the importance of tailored interventions and educational strategies to address diverse attitudes toward cannabis legalization. The findings contribute valuable insights for policymakers, educators, and health professionals, guiding the development of informed approaches to substance use prevention. The recommendations emphasize the necessity of proactive measures, such as outreach programs and collaborative efforts, to navigate the multifaceted implications of cannabis legalization and promote overall societal well-being.

Keywords: PEST analysis; internet survey; consumption volumes; regional characteristics; macroeconomic risks

JEL Classification: A1 – General Economics; B4 – Economic Methodology

Corresponding author: Tatiana Kvasnikova, Far Eastern Federal University, Vladivostok, 690950, Russian Federation, E-mail: tatkvasnikova@rambler.ru

References

Adinoff, B., and Z. D. Cooper. 2019. “Cannabis Legalization: Progress in Harm Reduction Approaches for Substance Use and Misuse.” The American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse 45 (6): 707–12. https://doi.org/10.1080/00952990.2019.1680683.Search in Google Scholar

Allaf, S., J. S. Lim, N. A. Buckley, and R. Cairns. 2023. “The Impact of Cannabis Legalization and Decriminalization on Acute Poisoning: A Systematic Review.” Addiction 18 (12): 2252–74. https://doi.org/10.1111/add.16280.Search in Google Scholar

Anderson, J. E., M. Ü. Hughes, and C. Nguyen. 2019. “The Highs and Lows of Startups in the Cannabis Industry: A PESTLE Analysis of the Current Issues.” Business Forum 27 (2): 26–36.Search in Google Scholar

Athanassiou, M., A. Dumais, I. Zouaoui, and S. Potvin. 2023. “The Clouded Debate: A Systematic Review of Comparative Longitudinal Studies Examining the Impact of Recreational Cannabis Legalization on Key Public Health Outcomes.” Frontiers in Psychiatry 13: 1060656. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2022.1060656.Search in Google Scholar

Auriol, E., A. Mesnard, and T. Perrault. 2020. Weeding Out the Dealers? The Economics of Cannabis Legalization (No. 8645). Munich: CESifo.10.2139/ssrn.3720402Search in Google Scholar

Barratt, M. J., J. A. Ferris, R. Zahnow, J. J. Palamar, L. J. Maier, and A. R. Winstock. 2017. “Moving on from Representativeness: Testing the Utility of the Global Drug Survey.” Substance Abuse: Research and Treatment 11: 1178221817716391. https://doi.org/10.1177/1178221817716391.Search in Google Scholar

Beard, J. R., A. Officer, I. A. De Carvalho, R. Sadana, A. M. Pot, J. P. Michel, P. Lloyd-Sherlock, et al.. 2016. “The World Report on Ageing and Health: a Policy Framework for Healthy Ageing.” The Lancet 387 (10033): 2145–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00516-4.Search in Google Scholar

Bewley-Taylor, D., and M. Jelsma. 2012. “Regime Change: Re-visiting the 1961 Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs.” International Journal of Drug Policy 23 (1): 72–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2011.08.003.Search in Google Scholar

Bretteville-Jensen, A. L. 2006. “To Legalize or Not to Legalize? Economic Approaches to the Decriminalization of Drugs.” Substance Use & Misuse 41 (4): 555–65. https://doi.org/10.1080/10826080500521565.Search in Google Scholar

Chu, Y. W. L. 2015. “Do Medical Marijuana Laws Increase Hard-Drug Use?” The Journal of Law and Economics 58 (2): 481–517. https://doi.org/10.1086/684043.Search in Google Scholar

Crépault, J. F., C. Russell, T. M. Watson, C. Strike, S. Bonato, and J. Rehm. 2023. “What Is a Public Health Approach to Substance Use? A Qualitative Systematic Review and Thematic Synthesis.” International Journal of Drug Policy 112: 103958. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2023.103958.Search in Google Scholar

Crosby, A. 2019. “Contesting Cannabis: Indigenous Jurisdiction and Legalization.” Canadian Public Administration 62 (4): 634–55. https://doi.org/10.1111/capa.12351.Search in Google Scholar

European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction. 2019a. European Drug Report. 2019: Trends and Developments. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.Search in Google Scholar

European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction. 2019b. Netherlands Country Drug Report 2019 Drug Laws and Drug Law Offences. https://www.emcdda.europa.eu/system/files/publications/11347/netherlands-cdr-2019.pdf.Search in Google Scholar

European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction. 2019c. Poland. Country Drug Report 2019 Drug Laws and Drug Law Offences. https://www.emcdda.europa.eu/system/files/publications/11349/poland-cdr-2019_0.pdf.Search in Google Scholar

European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction. 2021. Cannabis Policy: Status and Recent Developments. https://www.emcdda.europa.eu/publications/topic-overviews/cannabis-policy/html_en.Search in Google Scholar

Farrelly, K. N., J. D. Wardell, E. Marsden, M. L. Scarfe, P. Najdzionek, J. Turna, and J. MacKillop. 2023. “The Impact of Recreational Cannabis Legalization on Cannabis Use and Associated Outcomes: A Systematic Review.” Substance Abuse: Research and Treatment. https://doi.org/10.1177/11782218231172054.Search in Google Scholar

Feeney, K. E., and K. M. Kampman. 2016. “Adverse Effects of Marijuana Use.” The Linacre Quarterly 83 (2): 174–8. https://doi.org/10.1080/00243639.2016.1175707.Search in Google Scholar

Ghasemiesfe, M., B. Barrow, S. Leonard, S. Keyhani, and D. Korenstein. 2019. “Association between Marijuana Use and Risk of Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.” JAMA Network Open 2 (11): e1916318. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.16318.Search in Google Scholar

Gritsenko, V., V. Konstantinov, A. Reznik, and R. Isralowitz. 2020. “Russian Federation Medical Student Knowledge, Attitudes and Beliefs toward Medical Cannabis.” Complementary Therapies in Medicine 48: 102274. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ctim.2019.102274.Search in Google Scholar

Guiney, C. 2017. “Cannabis Legislation in Europe: an Overview.” Drugnet Ireland 62: 10–1.Search in Google Scholar

Hajizadeh, M. 2016. “Legalizing and Regulating Marijuana in Canada: Review of Potential Economic, Social, and Health Impacts.” International Journal of Health Policy and Management 5 (8): 453–6. https://doi.org/10.15171/ijhpm.2016.63.Search in Google Scholar

Hall, W., and L. Degenhardt. 2009. “Adverse Health Effects of Non-medical Cannabis Use.” The Lancet 374 (9698): 1383–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61037-0.Search in Google Scholar

Hall, W., D. Stjepanović, D. Dawson, and J. Leung. 2023. “The Implementation and Public Health Impacts of Cannabis Legalization in Canada: A Systematic Review.” Addiction 118 (11): 2062–72. https://doi.org/10.1111/add.16274.Search in Google Scholar

Hammond, C. J., A. Chaney, B. Hendrickson, and P. Sharma. 2020a. “Cannabis Use Among U.S. Adolescents in the Era of Marijuana Legalization: a Review of Changing Use Patterns, Comorbidity, and Health Correlates.” International Review of Psychiatry 32 (3): 221–34. https://doi.org/10.1080/09540261.2020.1713056.Search in Google Scholar

Hammond, D., S. Goodman, E. Wadsworth, V. Rynard, C. Boudreau, and W. Hall. 2020b. “Evaluating the Impacts of Cannabis Legalization: the International Cannabis Policy Study.” International Journal of Drug Policy 77: 102698. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2020.102698.Search in Google Scholar

Harpin, S. B., A. Brooks-Russell, M. Ma, K. A. James, and A. H. Levinson. 2018. “Adolescent Marijuana Use and Perceived Ease of Access before and after Recreational Marijuana Implementation in Colorado.” Substance Use & Misuse 53 (3): 451–6. https://doi.org/10.1080/10826084.2017.1334069.Search in Google Scholar

Hohlfeld, M. 2016. The Decriminalisation of Soft Drugs In Germany: The Netherlands as a Role Model? Groningen: University of Groningen.Search in Google Scholar

Jones, J., K. N. Jones, and J. Peil. 2018. “The Impact of the Legalization of Recreational Marijuana on College Students.” Addictive Behaviors 77: 255–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.addbeh.2017.08.015.Search in Google Scholar

Karpuntsov, V., and R. Veresha. 2022. “Criminal and Administrative Aspects of the Sociology of Law: Opportunities for Expanding the Research and the Field of Expertise.” InterEULawEast: Journal for the International and European Law, Economics and Market Integrations 9 (1): 147–65. https://doi.org/10.22598/iele.2022.9.1.7.Search in Google Scholar

Kerr, D. C., H. Bae, and A. L. Koval. 2018. “Oregon Recreational Marijuana Legalization: Changes in Undergraduates’ Marijuana Use Rates from 2008 to 2016.” Psychology of Addictive Behaviors 32 (6): 670. https://doi.org/10.1037/adb0000385.Search in Google Scholar

Khatapoush, S., and D. Hallfors. 2004. ““Sending the Wrong Message”: Did Medical Marijuana Legalization in California Change Attitudes about and Use of Marijuana?” Journal of Drug Issues 34 (4): 751–70. https://doi.org/10.1177/002204260403400402.Search in Google Scholar

Lachenmeier, D. W., and J. Rehm. 2015. “Comparative Risk Assessment of Alcohol, Tobacco, Cannabis and Other Illicit Drugs Using the Margin of Exposure Approach.” Scientific Reports 5: 8126. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep08126.Search in Google Scholar

Lebaux, V. 2004. “Cannabis and Cannabinoids under the United Nations Drug Control Conventions.” In Cannabis sativa L. e substâncias canabinóides em medicina, edited by E. A. Carlini, E. Rodrigues and J. C. F. Galduroz, pp. 103–15. Brasília: Secretaria Nacional Antidrogas.Search in Google Scholar

Lines, R., R. Elliott, J. Hannah, R. Schleifer, T. Avafia, and D. Barrett. 2017. “The Case for International Guidelines on Human Rights and Drug Control.” Health and Human Rights 19 (1): 231–6.Search in Google Scholar

Lopez-Quintero, C., J. P. de los Cobos, D. S. Hasin, M. Okuda, S. Wang, B. F. Grant, and C. Blanco. 2011. “Probability and Predictors of Transition from First Use to Dependence on Nicotine, Alcohol, Cannabis, and Cocaine: Results of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC).” Drug and Alcohol Dependence 115: 120–130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2010.11.004.Search in Google Scholar

McGreevy, P. 2019. Legal Pot Sales Fall Short of Expectations in California, Governing: The States and Localities. Governing. https://www.governing.com/archive/tns-california-marijuana-sales.html.Search in Google Scholar

Meier, M. H., A. Caspi, A. Danese, H. L. Fisher, R. Houts, L. Arseneault, and T. E. Moffitt. 2018. “Associations between Adolescent Cannabis Use and Neuropsychological Decline: a Longitudinal Co-twin Control Study.” Addiction 113 (2): 257–65. https://doi.org/10.1111/add.13946.Search in Google Scholar

Mousavi, S. E., F. Tondro Anamag, and S. Sanaie. 2023. “Association between Cannabis Use and Risk of Diabetes Mellitus Type 2: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.” Phytotherapy Research 37 (11): 5092–108. https://doi.org/10.1002/ptr.7973.Search in Google Scholar

Musto, C., and G. Robaina. 2018. Evolución del consumo de cannabis en Uruguay y mercados regulados. Monitor Cannabis Uruguay. http://monitorcannabis.uy/evolucion-del-consumo-de-cannabis-en-uruguay-ymercados-regulados/.Search in Google Scholar

Nutt, D. J., L. A. King, and L. D. Phillips. 2010. “Drug Harms in the UK: a Multicriteria Decision Analysis.” The Lancet 376: 1558–1565. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(10)61462-6.Search in Google Scholar

Osborne, G. B., and C. Fogel. 2016. “Perspectives on Cannabis Legalization Among Canadian Recreational Users.” Contemporary Drug Problems 44 (1): 12–31. https://doi.org/10.1177/0091450916670393.Search in Google Scholar

Parnes, J. E., J. K. Smith, and B. T. Conner. 2018. “Reefer Madness or Much Ado about Nothing? Cannabis Legalization Outcomes Among Young Adults in the United States.” International Journal of Drug Policy 56: 116–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2018.03.011.Search in Google Scholar

Partners, Prohibition. 2020. The European Cannabis Report, 5th ed.. https://prohibitionpartners.com/reports/the-european-cannabis-report-fifth-edition/.Search in Google Scholar

Room, R., Fischer, B., Hall, W., Reuter, P., & Lenton, S. (2010). Cannabis Policy: Moving beyond Stalemate. Oxford: Oxford University Press, USA.Search in Google Scholar

SAMHSA. 2017. Key Substance Use and Mental Health Indicators In the United States: Results from the 2017 National Survey on Drug Use and Health. https://www.samhsa.gov/data/sites/default/files/cbhsq-reports/NSDUHFFR2017/NSDUHFFR2017.pdf.Search in Google Scholar

Shover, C. L., and K. Humphreys. 2019. “Six Policy Lessons Relevant to Cannabis Legalization.” The American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse 45 (6): 698–706. https://doi.org/10.1080/00952990.2019.1569669.Search in Google Scholar

Skelton, K. R., A. A. Hecht, and S. E. Benjamin-Neelon. 2020. “Recreational Cannabis Legalization in the US and Maternal Use during the Preconception, Prenatal, and Postpartum Periods.” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17 (3): 909. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17030909.Search in Google Scholar

Snijder, M., L. Stapinski, B. Lees, J. Ward, P. Conrod, C. Mushquash, L. Belone, et al.. 2020. “Preventing Substance Use Among Indigenous Adolescents in the USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand: a Systematic Review of the Literature.” Prevention Science 21: 65–85. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11121-019-01038-w.Search in Google Scholar

Stohr, M. K., D. W. Willits, D. A. Makin, C. Hemmens, N. P. Lovrich, D. L. Stanton Sr, and M. Meize. 2020. Effects of Marijuana Legalization on Law Enforcement and Crime. Final report. Washington: National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, US Department of Justice.Search in Google Scholar

Theerasuwipakorn, N., S. Prechawat, R. Chokesuwattanaskul, N. Siranart, A. Marsukjai, S. Thumtecho, and V. Rungpradubvong. 2023. “Cannabis and Adverse Cardiovascular Events: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.” Toxicology Reports 10: 537–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.toxrep.2023.04.011.Search in Google Scholar

United Nations. 2019. World Drug Report 2019. Vienna: United Nations publication.Search in Google Scholar

UNODC. 2020. In Focus: Cannabis Legalization – World Drug Report 2020. Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.Search in Google Scholar

Vásconez-González, J., K. Delgado-Moreira, B. López-Molina, J. S. Izquierdo-Condoy, E. Gámez-Rivera, and E. Ortiz-Prado. 2023. “Effects of Smoking Marijuana on the Respiratory System: A Systematic Review.” Substance Abuse 44 (3): 249–60. https://doi.org/10.1177/08897077231186228.Search in Google Scholar

Veresha, R. V. 2016. “Mistake of Criminal Law and its Influence on the Classification of Crime.” International Journal of Environmental & Science Education 11 (15): 8017–25.Search in Google Scholar

Walker, M., M. Carpino, D. Lightfoot, E. Rossi, M. Tang, R. Mann, O. Saarela, and M. D. Cusimano. 2023. “The Effect of Recreational Cannabis Legalization and Commercialization on Substance Use, Mental Health, and Injury: A Systematic Review.” Public Health 221: 87–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2023.06.012.Search in Google Scholar

Received: 2023-08-28

Accepted: 2023-12-07

Published Online: 2023-12-25

You are currently not able to access this content.

Articles in the same Issue

https://doi.org/10.1515/ael-2023-0088

Keywords for this article

PEST analysis; internet survey; consumption volumes; regional characteristics; macroeconomic risks