Document No. 54: CIA Intelligence Assessment, “Rising Political Instability under Gorbachev: Understanding the Problem and Prospects for Resolution”, April 1989

Chapters in this book

1. Frontmatter i
2. Table of Contents v
3. Preface and Acknowledgements xv
4. Foreword xxi
5. Foreword xxv
6. Acronyms xxvii
7. Chronology of Events xxix
8. The Logic of 1989: The Soviet Peaceful Withdrawal from Eastern Europe 1
9. U.S. Policy and the Revolutions of 1989 49
10. Dialogue: The Musgrove Conference, May 1–3, 1998 99
11. Documents
12. Document No. 1: Transcript of Mikhail Gorbachev’s Conference with CC CPSU Secretaries, March 15, 1985 217
13. Document No. 2: Diary of Anatoly Chernyaev regarding the “Vladimirov” Article, July 5, 1985 220
14. Document No. 3: Memorandum from Anatoly Chernyaev to Aleksandr Yakovlev on Germany and Eastern Europe, March 10, 1986 222
15. Document No. 4: Speech by Mikhail Gorbachev to Ministry of Foreign Affairs, May 28, 1986 224
16. Document No. 5: Notes of CC CPSU Politburo Session, June 13, 1986 226
17. Document No. 6: Memorandum from Mikhail Gorbachev to the CC CPSU Politburo on Topical Questions regarding Collaboration with Socialist Countries, June 26, 1986 230
18. Document No. 7: Notes of CC CPSU Politburo Session, July 3, 1986 234
19. Document No. 8: Transcript of CC CPSU Politburo Session, November 13, 1986 236
20. Document No. 9: Notes of CC CPSU Politburo Session, January 29, 1987 241
21. Document No. 10: Proposal from Georgy Shakhnazarov to the CPSU for a Partial Soviet Troop Withdrawal from the ČSSR, March 1987 244
22. Document No. 11: Notes of CC CPSU Politburo Session. Report on Mikhail Gorbachev’s Visit to Czechoslovakia, April 16, 1987 247
23. Document No. 12: Notes of CC CPSU Politburo Session, May 8, 1987 249
24. Document No. 13: Report on Mikhail Gorbachev’s Visit to Romania, June 4, 1987 253
25. Document No. 14: Report on Eduard Shevardnadze’s Visits to Bulgaria, Hungary, and Yugoslavia, July 9, 1987 255
26. Document No. 15: State Department Intelligence and Research Report: “Economic Reform in the USSR and Eastern Europe”, September 16, 1987 257
27. Document No. 16: Notes of CC CPSU Politburo Session, November 19, 1987 259
28. Document No. 17: Memorandum from Robert Gates, “Gorbachev’s Gameplan: The Long View”, November 24, 1987 261
29. Document No. 18: Telegram from Rozanne Ridgeway to All European Diplomatic Posts, “Eastern Europe: Invitation to the Dance”, December 1987 264
30. Document No. 19: Notes of CC CPSU Politburo Session, March 10, 1988 265
31. Document No. 20: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Lazar Moisov, March 14, 1988 268
32. Document No. 21: Notes of CC CPSU Politburo Session, March 24–25, 1988 269
33. Document No. 22: Record of the Main Content of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Gustáv Husák, April 12, 1988 271
34. Document No. 23: Record of the Main Content of a Telephone Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and János Kádár, May 19, 1988 273
35. Document No. 24: Comments from Georgy Shakhnazarov on Viktor Kulikov’s Report at the Warsaw Treaty PCC, May 25, 1988 277
36. Document No. 25: National Intelligence Estimate 11/12-9-88, “Soviet Policy toward Eastern Europe under Gorbachev”, May 1988 280
37. Document No. 26: Notes of CC CPSU Politburo Session, June 20, 1988 286
38. Document No. 27: Speech by Mikhail Gorbachev at a Dinner with Wojciech Jaruzelski, July 11, 1988 290
39. Document No. 28: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Józef Czyrek, September 23, 1988 292
40. Document No. 29: Preparatory Notes from Georgy Shakhnazarov for Mikhail Gorbachev for CC CPSU Politburo Meeting, October 6, 1988 306
41. Document No. 30: Diary of Anatoly Chernyaev regarding a Meeting between Mikhail Gorbachev and Helmut Kohl, October 28, 1988 309
42. Document No. 31: Notes of a Meeting between Mikhail Gorbachev and Foreign Policy Advisers, October 31, 1988 311
43. Document No. 32: Summary of Conversations between Károly Grósz, János Berecz, Miklós Németh, Mátyás Szűrös and Aleksandr Yakovlev, November 10–11, 1988 313
44. Document No. 33: CIA Intelligence Assessment, “Gorbachev’s September Housecleaning: An Early Evaluation”, December 1988 325
45. Document No. 34: Diary of Anatoly Chernyaev on the Situation in the Baltics, December 10, 1988 331
46. Document No. 35: Transcript of CC CPSU Politburo Session, December 27–28, 1988 332
47. Document No. 36: Record of Conversation between Aleksandr Yakovlev and Henry Kissinger, January 16, 1989 341
48. Document No. 37: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Henry Kissinger, January 17, 1989 345
49. Document No. 38: Letter from George H.W. Bush to Mikhail Gorbachev, January 17, 1989 347
50. Document No. 39: Report from Mikhail Gorbachev to the CC CPSU Politburo regarding His Meeting with the Trilateral Commission, January 21, 1989 349
51. Document No. 40: Notes of Telephone Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and George H.W. Bush, January 23, 1989 352
52. Document No. 41: Memorandum from CC CPSU International Department, “On a Strategy for Relations with the European Socialist Countries”, February 1989 353
53. Document No. 42: Memorandum from the Bogomolov Institute, “Changes in Eastern Europe and their Impact on the USSR”, February 1989 365
54. Document No. 43: Cable from Jack Matlock to State Department, “The Soviet Union over the Next Four Years”, February 3, 1989 382
55. Document No. 44: Memorandum from Anatoly Chernyaev to Vadim Zagladin, February 4, 1989 389
56. Document No. 45: Cable from Jack Matlock to State Department, “The Soviet Union over the Next Four Years”, February 13, 1989 390
57. Document No. 46: Report on Vadim Medvedev’s Visit to Romania, February 16, 1989 397
58. Document No. 47: Cable from Jack Matlock to State Department, “U.S.–Soviet Relations: Policy Opportunities”, February 22, 1989 399
59. Document No. 48: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Achille Occhetto, February 28, 1989 408
60. Document No. 49: Notes of CC CPSU Politburo Session, March 3, 1989 411
61. Document No. 50: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Miklós Németh, March 3, 1989 412
62. Document No. 51: Notes of Mikhail Gorbachev’s Meeting with Soviet Ambassadors to Socialist Countries, March 3, 1989 414
63. Document No. 52: Record of Conversations between Mikhail Gorbachev and Károly Grósz, March 23–24, 1989 418
64. Document No. 53: Transcript of CC CPSU Politburo Session, “Outcome of the USSR People’s Deputies Elections”, March 28, 1989 420
65. Document No. 54: CIA Intelligence Assessment, “Rising Political Instability under Gorbachev: Understanding the Problem and Prospects for Resolution”, April 1989 432
66. Document No. 55: Report from Vadim Zagladin on Conversation with Jan Pudlák, April 1, 1989 436
67. Document No. 56: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Margaret Thatcher, April 6, 1989 438
68. Document No. 57: National Intelligence Estimate 11-4-89, “Soviet Policy toward the West: The Gorbachev Challenge”, April 1989 442
69. Document No. 58: Session of the CC CPSU Politburo, April 20, 1989 446
70. Document No. 59: Diary of Anatoly Chernyaev regarding Gorbachev’s State of Mind, May 2, 1989 449
71. Document No. 60: Session of the CC CPSU Politburo, May 11, 1989 450
72. Document No. 61: Transcript of CC PUWP Secretariat Meeting, June 5, 1989 452
73. Document No. 62: Record of Conversation between Erich Honecker and Eduard Shevardnadze, June 9, 1989 460
74. Document No. 63: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Helmut Kohl, June 12, 1989 463
75. Document No. 64: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Richard von Weizsäcker, June 12, 1989 468
76. Document No. 65: Transcript of Opening Full Session of Hungarian National Roundtable Negotiations, June 13, 1989 470
77. Document No. 66: Record of Second Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Helmut Kohl, June 13, 1989 475
78. Document No. 67: Record of Third Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Helmut Kohl, June 14, 1989 476
79. Document No. 68: Memorandum of Telephone Conversation between George H.W. Bush and Helmut Kohl, June 15, 1989 479
80. Document No. 69: Memorandum of Telephone Conversation between George H.W. Bush and Helmut Kohl, June 23, 1989 482
81. Document No. 70: Letter from Helmut Kohl to George H.W. Bush, June 28, 1989 484
82. Document No. 71: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev, François Mitterrand and Their Spouses, July 4, 1989 488
83. Document No. 72: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and François Mitterrand, July 5, 1989 490
84. Document No. 73: Address by Mikhail Gorbachev to the Council of Europe in Strasbourg, July 6, 1989 492
85. Document No. 74: Record of Concluding Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and François Mitterrand, July 6, 1989 497
86. Document No. 75: Notes of Meeting of Warsaw Treaty Member-States, July 8, 1989 499
87. Document No. 76: Information Note regarding George H.W. Bush’s Visit to Poland (July 9–11), July 18, 1989 503
88. Document No. 77: Record of Conversation between Aleksandr Yakovlev and Jack Matlock, July 20, 1989 506
89. Document No. 78: Report from Rezső Nyers and Károly Grósz on Negotiations with Mikhail Gorbachev, July 24–25, 1989 511
90. Document No. 79: Transcript of SED Politburo Sessions, September 5, 1989 515
91. Document No. 80: Memorandum of Conversation between Oskar Fischer and Vyacheslav Kochemassov, September 7, 1989 517
92. Document No. 81: Letter from Gerd Vehres to Oskar Fischer, September 10, 1989 518
93. Document No. 82: Record of Conversation between Evgeny Primakov and Margaret Thatcher, September 18, 1989 521
94. Document No. 83: CIA Intelligence Assessment, “Gorbachev’s Domestic Gambles and Instability in the USSR”, September 1989 522
95. Document No. 84: National Security Directive (NSD) 23, “United States Relations with the Soviet Union”, September 22, 1989 525
96. Document No. 85: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Margaret Thatcher, September 23, 1989 530
97. Document No. 86: Protocol No. 166 of CC CPSU Politburo Session, September 28, 1989 533
98. Document No. 87: Diary of Anatoly Chernyaev regarding Mikhail Gorbachev’s Visit to the GDR, October 5, 1989 542
99. Document No. 88: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Members of the CC SED Politburo, October 7, 1989 544
100. Document No. 89: Diary of Anatoly Chernyaev regarding German Reunification, October 9, 1989 547
101. Document No. 90: Diary of Anatoly Chernyaev regarding Erich Honecker, October 11, 1989 548
102. Document No. 91: Session of the CC CPSU Politburo, Discussion of Mikhail Gorbachev’s Talk with Mieczysław Rakowski, October 12, 1989 550
103. Document No. 92: Record of Conversation between Vadim Medvedev and Kurt Hager, October 13, 198976 551
104. Document No. 93: Memorandum from Georgy Shakhnazarov to Mikhail Gorbachev regarding Military Détente in Europe, October 14, 1989 555
105. Document No. 94: Record of Telephone Conversation between George H.W. Bush and Helmut Kohl, October 23, 1989 558
106. Document No. 95: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Mauno Koivisto, October 25, 1989 561
107. Document No. 96: Record of Conversation between Aleksandr Yakovlev and Zbigniew Brzezinski, October 31, 1989 563
108. Document No. 97: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Egon Krenz, November 1, 1989 569
109. Document No. 98: Cable from U.S. Embassy in Sofia to State Department, “The Nov 10 CC Party Plenum: Little Prospect for Major Changes”, November 9, 1989 574
110. Document No. 99: Session of the CC CPSU Politburo, November 9, 1989 577
111. Document No. 100: Record of Conversation between Helmut Kohl and Lech Wałęsa, November 9, 1989 580
112. Document No. 101: Diary of Anatoly Chernyaev regarding the Fall of the Berlin Wall, November 10, 1989 586
113. Document No. 102: Record of Telephone Conversation between George H.W. Bush and Helmut Kohl, November 10, 1989 587
114. Document No. 103: Record of Telephone Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Helmut Kohl, November 11, 1989 590
115. Document No. 104: Record of Telephone Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and François Mitterrand, November 14, 1989 593
116. Document No. 105: Record of Telephone Conversation between George H.W. Bush and Helmut Kohl, November 17, 1989 595
117. Document No. 106: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Brian Mulroney, November 21, 1989 598
118. Document No. 107: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Tadeusz Mazowiecki, November 24, 1989 602
119. Document No. 108: Speech by Ladislav Adamec at CC CPCz Extraordinary Session, November 24, 1989 608
120. Document No. 109: Letter from Helmut Kohl to George H.W. Bush, November 28, 1989 611
121. Document No. 110: Soviet Transcript of the Malta Summit, December 2–3, 1989 619
122. Document No. 111: Memorandum of Conversation of George H.W. Bush, John Sununu, Brent Scowcroft, and Helmut Kohl, December 3, 1989 647
123. Document No. 112: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Petar Mladenov, December 5, 1989 651
124. Document No. 113: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Hans Dietrich Genscher, December 5, 1989 653
125. Document No. 114: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and François Mitterrand, December 6, 1989 657
126. Document No. 115: Cable from James Baker to U.S. Embassy Sofia, December 19, 1989 660
127. Document No. 116: Four Soviet Foreign Ministry Documents regarding the Situation in Romania, December 20–25, 1989 661
128. Document No. 117: Memorandum from the CC CPSU International Department, “Towards a New Concept of Relations between the USSR and the States of Central and Eastern Europe”, January 5, 1990 668
129. Document No. 118: Diary of Anatoly Chernyaev regarding German Reunification, January 28, 1990 673
130. Document No. 119: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and James Baker, February 9, 1990 675
131. Document No. 120: Letter from James Baker to Helmut Kohl, February 10, 1990 685
132. Document No. 121: National Intelligence Estimate 12–90, “The Future of Eastern Europe,” (Key Judgments Only), April 1990 688
133. Document No. 122: Record of Conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Wojciech Jaruzelski, April 13, 1990 691
134. Main Actors 701
135. Selected Bibliography 707
136. Index 713