9. There’s Always A First Time

Chapters in this book

1. Frontmatter i
2. Contents vii
3. Preface And Note To Readers ix
4. Acknowledgments xii
5. Part I. Enlightenment And The Anti-Bayesian Reaction
6. 1. Causes In The Air 3
7. 2. The Man Who Did Everything 13
8. 3. Many Doubts, Few Defenders 34
9. Part II. Second World War Era
10. 4. Bayes Goes To War 61
11. 5. Dead And Buried Again 87
12. Part III. The Glorious Revival
13. 6. Arthur Bailey 91
14. 7. From Tool To Theology 97
15. 8. Jerome Cornfield, Lung Cancer, And Heart Attacks 108
16. 9. There’s Always A First Time 119
17. 10. 46,656 Varieties 129
18. Part IV. To Prove Its Worth
19. 11. Business Decisions 139
20. 12. Who Wrote The Federalist? 154
21. 13. The Cold Warrior 163
22. 14. Three Mile Island 176
23. 15. The Navy Searches 182
24. Part V. Victory
25. 16. Eureka! 213
26. 17. Rosetta Stones 233
27. Appendix A. Dr Fisher’s Casebook: The Doctor Sees The Light 253
28. Appendix B. Applying Bayes’ Rule To Mammograms And Breast Cancer 255
29. Notes 259
30. Glossary 271
31. Bibliography 275
32. Index 307