The WTO Minus One: A Rules-Based Global Trading System Without The US?
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Andreas Baur
Abstract
As the United States turns its back on multilateral trade rules, a critical question emerges: can the WTO survive without its most powerful member? While the US remains the world’s largest single importer, it accounts for only 13 percent of global merchandise trade. Hence, WTO members retain substantial economic interests in preserving multilateral trade rules for the remaining 87 percent of global trade. The central challenge is preventing American unilateralism from becoming a contagious example, as occurred during the interwar period. WTO Plurilateral initiatives and extending the network of (WTO-compliant) trade agreements offer promising pathways to maintain the credibility and utility of the rules-based trading system without hegemonic leadership.
References
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Gonciarz, Tomasz, and Thomas Verbeet. 2025. “Significance of Most-Favoured-Nation Terms in Global Trade: a Comprehensive Analysis.” WTO Staff Working Paper Research ERSD-2025-02. https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd202502_e.htm.Search in Google Scholar
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© 2025 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
Articles in the same Issue
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- Editorial
- The End of US Dominance?
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- Alternative Policy Rules and Post-Covid Fed Policies
- Accountability in Action: The European Parliament’s Assessment of the ECB 2024 Annual Report
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- The WTO Minus One: A Rules-Based Global Trading System Without The US?
- The Fed in the Crosshairs
- Will China Replace the USA as the World’s Leading Power
- Will the US Protect Taiwan in Case of Chinese Military Aggression?
- War in Ukraine: Is Russia Challenging the US Global Dominance?
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Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Editorial
- The End of US Dominance?
- Policy Papers (No Special Focus)
- Alternative Policy Rules and Post-Covid Fed Policies
- Accountability in Action: The European Parliament’s Assessment of the ECB 2024 Annual Report
- Germany’s Fiscal Turn: Structural Challenges, Political Risks, and European Spillover Effects
- Trumpian Neomercantilism, European Fiscal Capacity and the Global Minimum Tax
- Factors Driving India’s Growth: Challenges and Policy Measures
- Policy Forum: The End of US Dominance?
- After Multilateralism: The US and the World Bank
- The Triple Mandate of Development, Climate, and Humanitarian Aid
- The WTO Minus One: A Rules-Based Global Trading System Without The US?
- The Fed in the Crosshairs
- Will China Replace the USA as the World’s Leading Power
- Will the US Protect Taiwan in Case of Chinese Military Aggression?
- War in Ukraine: Is Russia Challenging the US Global Dominance?
- A Fragile Surge: European Support to Ukraine in Early 2025 – New Insights from the Kiel Institute Ukraine Support Tracker
- A Strawman Proposal to Use International Flexibility in Achieving Developed Countries Climate Targets to Catalyse Global Decarbonisation
