Schooling and Cohort Size: Evidence from Vietnam, Thailand, Iran and Cambodia
-
Evangelos M. Falaris
and
Thuan Q. Thai
Abstract
In many developing countries, the annual number of births has reached a peak in recent years and has declined since that time. We investigate how the schooling that individuals complete responds to the changes in the number of potential labor market competitors implied by changes in the annual number of births. We use census data from Vietnam, Thailand, Iran and Cambodia and document a similar pattern in all of them: holding other characteristics constant, individuals born during the upswing of the demographic cycle complete less schooling than individuals born during the downswing of the demographic cycle. Our estimates suggest that individuals' schooling choices mitigate the possibly adverse economic effects of the demographic cycle. For developing countries that are at earlier phases of the demographic transition, our study lets us predict schooling levels as the demographic transition moves forward.
Acknowledgements
We thank Saul Hoffman, Charles Link, Adrienne Lucas, Bo Malmgren and James Mulligan for their comments.
Appendix
Estimates of relative cohort size average marginal effects for alternative definitions of relative cohort size.
| Vietnam | 3-year time frame men | 3-year time frame women | 7-year time frame men | 7-year time frame women |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Older relative cohort | 1.676 | 1.684 | −5.582 | −6.440 |
| (1.627) | (1.855) | (1.824) | (1.899) | |
| Younger relative cohort | 0.777 | 1.060 | 4.961 | 5.703 |
| (0.674) | (0.794) | (1.181) | (1.254) | |
| Thailand | ||||
| Older relative cohort | −1.667 | −4.385 | −2.253 | −4.034 |
| (1.148) | (1.576) | (0.793) | (0.962) | |
| Younger relative cohort | 1.571 | 4.751 | 2.053 | 3.903 |
| (1.292) | (1.724) | (1.061) | (0.936) | |
| Iran | ||||
| Older relative cohort | −0.238 | −0.321 | −0.439 | −0.516 |
| (0.068) | (0.076) | (0.125) | (0.064) | |
| Younger relative cohort | 0.576 | 0.138 | 0.753 | 0.476 |
| (0.331) | (0.308) | (0.182) | (0.256) | |
| Cambodia | ||||
| Older relative cohort | −1.531 | −1.868 | −0.890 | −1.175 |
| (0.422) | (0.443) | (0.411) | (0.053) | |
| Younger relative cohort | 6.837 | 7.135 | 3.889 | 4.016 |
| (1.512) | (1.398) | (0.205) | (0.241) |
Note: Standard error estimates adjusted for clustering by birth year are in parentheses.
Tests of equality of relative cohort size estimated average marginal effects for alternative relative cohort size definitions and point estimates of relative cohort size average marginal effects based on 5-year time frame.
| Vietnam | Men | Women |
|---|---|---|
| 3-year time frame | χ2(2) = 81.75 | χ2(2) = 77.37 |
| Pr. = 0.000 | Pr. = 0.000 | |
| 7-year time frame | χ2(2) = 3.63 | χ2(2) = 4.37 |
| Pr. = 0.163 | Pr. = 0.112 | |
| Thailand | ||
| 3-year time frame | χ2(2) = 1.11 | χ2(2) = 0.16 |
| Pr. = 0.574 | Pr. = 0.925 | |
| 7-year time frame | χ2(2) = 0.65 | χ2(2) = 0.52 |
| Pr. = 0.723 | Pr. = 0.772 | |
| Iran | ||
| 3-year time frame | χ2(2) = 5.00 | χ2(2) = 10.24 |
| Pr. = 0.082 | Pr. = 0.006 | |
| 7-year time frame | χ2(2) = 0.90 | χ2(2) = 1.53 |
| Pr. = 0.638 | Pr. = 0.464 | |
| Cambodia | ||
| 3-year time frame | χ2(2) = 4.39 | χ2(2) = 5.75 |
| Pr. = 0.111 | Pr. = 0.057 | |
| 7-year time frame | χ2(2) = 38.57 | χ2(2) = 50.91 |
| Pr. = 0.000 | Pr. = 0.000 |
Note: Standard error estimates are adjusted for clustering by birth year.
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Articles in the same Issue
- Research Article
- Modeling Completion of Vocational Education: The Role of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills by Program Type
- The Motherhood Penalty: Is It a Wage-Dependent Family Decision?
- Marginal Cost of Public Funds: From the Theory to the Empirical Application for the Evaluation of the Efficiency of the Tax-Benefit Systems
- Timing of Emissions and Effects of Emission Taxes in Durable-Goods Oligopolies
- Health Insurance Coverage and Firm Performance: Evidence Using Firm Level Data from Vietnam
- The Impact of Language Skills on Immigrants’ Labor Market Integration: A Brief Revision With a New Approach
- Food Stamps, Income Shocks, and Crime: Evidence from California
- Employment in Long-Term Care: The Role of Macroeconomic Conditions
- Schooling and Cohort Size: Evidence from Vietnam, Thailand, Iran and Cambodia
- U.S. Income Comparisons with Regional Price Parity Adjustments
- Letter
- A Sibling-Pair Analysis for Causal Effect of Education on Health
Articles in the same Issue
- Research Article
- Modeling Completion of Vocational Education: The Role of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills by Program Type
- The Motherhood Penalty: Is It a Wage-Dependent Family Decision?
- Marginal Cost of Public Funds: From the Theory to the Empirical Application for the Evaluation of the Efficiency of the Tax-Benefit Systems
- Timing of Emissions and Effects of Emission Taxes in Durable-Goods Oligopolies
- Health Insurance Coverage and Firm Performance: Evidence Using Firm Level Data from Vietnam
- The Impact of Language Skills on Immigrants’ Labor Market Integration: A Brief Revision With a New Approach
- Food Stamps, Income Shocks, and Crime: Evidence from California
- Employment in Long-Term Care: The Role of Macroeconomic Conditions
- Schooling and Cohort Size: Evidence from Vietnam, Thailand, Iran and Cambodia
- U.S. Income Comparisons with Regional Price Parity Adjustments
- Letter
- A Sibling-Pair Analysis for Causal Effect of Education on Health
