Band 11, Heft 5

Advances in genotyping that allow tens of thousands of individuals to be genotyped at a moderate number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) permit parentage inference to be pursued on a very large scale. The intergenerational tagging this capacity allows is revolutionizing the management of cultured organisms (cows, salmon, etc.) and is poised to do the same for scientific studies of natural populations. Currently, however, there are no likelihood-based methods of parentage inference which are implemented in a manner that allows them to quickly handle a very large number of potential parents or parent pairs. Here we introduce an efficient likelihood-based method applicable to the specialized case of cultured organisms in which both parents can be reliably sampled. We develop a Markov chain representation for the cumulative number of Mendelian incompatibilities between an offspring and its putative parents and we exploit it to develop a fast algorithm for simulation-based estimates of statistical confidence in SNP-based assignments of offspring to pairs of parents. The method is implemented in the freely available software SNPPIT. We describe the method in detail, then assess its performance in a large simulation study using known allele frequencies at 96 SNPs from ten hatchery salmon populations. The simulations verify that the method is fast and accurate and that 96 well-chosen SNPs can provide sufficient power to identify the correct pair of parents from amongst millions of candidate pairs.

The aim of this paper is to propose a test procedure for the detection of differential alternative splicing across conditions for tiling array or exon chip data. While developed in a mixed model framework, the test procedure is exact (avoiding computational burden) and applicable to a large variety of contrasts, including several previously published ones. A simulation study is presented to evaluate the robustness and performance of the method. It is found to have a good detection power of genes under differential alternative splicing, even for five biological replicates and four probes per exon. The methodology also enables the comparison of various experimental designs through exact power curves. This is illustrated with the comparison of paired and unpaired experiments. The test procedure was applied to two publicly available cancer data sets based on exon arrays, and showed promising results.

DNA methylation is an epigenetic modification that plays an important role in many biological processes. To better understand this epigenetic mechanism, genome-wide investigations of DNA methylation can be conducted via tiling array technology. In such DNA methylation profiling studies, statistical methods are employed to estimate the DNA methylation status of each probe represented on the tiling array. Although many of the current methods account for the inherent dependency between neighboring probes, they do not effectively utilize the wealth of information available in genomic annotation databases. Since previous studies indicate that DNA methylation patterns of some organisms differ by genomic element (e.g., gene, intergenic region), such genomic annotation information may be useful in predicting DNA methylation status. In this work, a novel statistical model is proposed within the hidden Markov model framework to incorporate genomic annotation information in the prediction of DNA methylation status. The advantages of incorporating genomic annotation via the proposed method are investigated through a simulation study and real data applications.

Recently, microarrays that can simultaneously measure the expression levels of thousands of genes have become a valuable tool for classifying tumors. For such classification, where the sample size is usually much smaller than the number of genes, it is essential to construct properly sparse models for accurately predicting tumor types to avoid over-fitting. Bayesian shrinkage estimation is considered a suitable method for providing such sparse models, effectively shrinking estimates of the effects for many irrelevant genes to zero while maintaining those of a small number of relevant genes at significant magnitudes. However, Bayesian analysis usually requires time-consuming computational techniques such as computationally intensive MCMC iterations. This paper describes a computationally effective method of Bayesian shrinkage regression (BSR) incorporating multiple hierarchical structures for constructing a classification model for tumor types using microarray gene expression data. We use a variational approximation method which provides simple approximations of posterior distributions of parameters to reduce computational burden in the Bayesian estimation. This computationally efficient BSR procedure yields a properly sparse model for accurately and rapidly classifying tumor samples. The accuracy of tumor classification is shown to be at least equivalent to that of other methods such as support vector machine and partial least squares using simulated and actual gene expression data sets.

Next generation sequencing technology provides a powerful tool for measuring gene expression (mRNA) levels in the form of RNA-sequence data. Method development for identifying differentially expressed (DE) genes from RNA-seq data, which frequently includes many low-count integers and can exhibit severe overdispersion relative to Poisson or binomial distributions, is a popular area of ongoing research. Here we present quasi-likelihood methods with shrunken dispersion estimates based on an adaptation of Smyth's (2004) approach to estimating gene-specific error variances for microarray data. Our suggested methods are computationally simple, analogous to ANOVA and compare favorably versus competing methods in detecting DE genes and estimating false discovery rates across a variety of simulations based on real data.

Differential expression analysis of sequence-count expression data involves performing a large number of hypothesis tests that compare the expression count data of each gene or transcript across two or more biological conditions. The assumptions of any specific hypothesis-testing method will probably not be valid for each of a very large number of genes. Thus, computational evaluation of assumptions should be incorporated into the analysis to select an appropriate hypothesis-testing method for each gene. Here, we generalize earlier work to introduce two novel procedures that use estimates of the empirical Bayesian probability (EBP) of overdispersion to select or combine results of a standard Poisson likelihood ratio test and a quasi-likelihood test for each gene. These EBP-based procedures simultaneously evaluate the Poisson-distribution assumption and account for multiple testing. With adequate power to detect overdispersion, the new procedures select the standard likelihood test for each gene with Poisson-distributed counts and the quasi-likelihood test for each gene with overdispersed counts. The new procedures outperformed previously published methods in many simulation studies. We also present a real-data analysis example and discuss how the framework used to develop the new procedures may be generalized to further enhance performance. An R code library that implements the methods is freely available at www.stjuderesearch.org/depts/biostats/software.

Propensity scores are commonly used to address confounding in observational studies. However, they have not been previously adapted to deal with bias in genetic association studies. We propose an extension of our previous method (Zhao et al., 2009) that uses a multilevel propensity score approach and allows one to estimate the effect of a genotype under an additive model and also simultaneously adjusts for confounders such as genetic ancestry and patient and disease characteristics. Using simulation studies, we demonstrate that this extended genetic propensity score (eGPS) can adequately adjust and consistently correct for bias due to confounding in a variety of circumstances. Under all simulation scenarios, the eGPS method yields estimates with bias close to 0 (mean=0.018, standard error=0.01). Our method also preserves statistical properties such as coverage probability, Type I error, and power. We illustrate this approach in a population-based genetic association study of testicular germ cell tumors and KITLG and SPRY4 susceptibility genes. We conclude that our method provides a novel and broadly applicable analytic strategy for obtaining less biased and more valid estimates of genetic associations.

Copy number variations (CNVs) are important in the disease association studies and are usually targeted by most recent microarray platforms developed for GWAS studies. However, the probes targeting the same CNV regions could vary greatly in performance, with some of the probes carrying little information more than pure noise. In this paper, we investigate how to best combine measurements of multiple probes to estimate copy numbers of individuals under the framework of Gaussian mixture model (GMM). First we show that under two regularity conditions and assume all the parameters except the mixing proportions are known, optimal weights can be obtained so that the univariate GMM based on the weighted average gives the exactly the same classification as the multivariate GMM does. We then developed an algorithm that iteratively estimates the parameters and obtains the optimal weights, and uses them for classification. The algorithm performs well on simulation data and two sets of real data, which shows clear advantage over classification based on the equal weighted average.

Histogram-based empirical Bayes methods developed for analyzing data for large numbers of genes, SNPs, or other biological features tend to have large biases when applied to data with a smaller number of features such as genes with expression measured conventionally, proteins, and metabolites. To analyze such small-scale and medium-scale data in an empirical Bayes framework, we introduce corrections of maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the local false discovery rate (LFDR). In this context, the MLE estimates the LFDR, which is a posterior probability of null hypothesis truth, by estimating the prior distribution. The corrections lie in excluding each feature when estimating one or more parameters on which the prior depends. In addition, we propose the expected LFDR (ELFDR) in order to propagate the uncertainty involved in estimating the prior. We also introduce an optimally weighted combination of the best of the corrected MLEs with a previous estimator that, being based on a binomial distribution, does not require a parametric model of the data distribution across features. An application of the new estimators and previous estimators to protein abundance data illustrates the extent to which different estimators lead to different conclusions about which proteins are affected by cancer.A simulation study was conducted to approximate the bias of the new estimators relative to previous LFDR estimators. Data were simulated for two different numbers of features (N), two different noncentrality parameter values or detectability levels (dalt), and several proportions of unaffected features (p0). One of these previous estimators is a histogram-based estimator (HBE) designed for a large number of features. The simulations show that some of the corrected MLEs and the ELFDR that corrects the HBE reduce the negative bias relative to the MLE and the HBE, respectively.For every method, we defined the worst-case performance as the maximum of the absolute value of the bias over the two different dalt and over various p0. The best worst-case methods represent the safest methods to be used under given conditions. This analysis indicates that the binomial-based method has the lowest worst-case absolute bias for high p0 and for N = 3, 12. However, the corrected MLE that is based on the minimum description length (MDL) principle is the best worst-case method when the value of p0 is more uncertain since it has one of the lowest worst-case biases over all possible values of p0 and for N = 3, 12. Therefore, the safest estimator considered is the binomial-based method when a high proportion of unaffected features can be assumed and the MDL-based method otherwise.A second simulation study was conducted with additional values of N. We found that HBE requires N to be at least 6-12 features to perform as well as the estimators proposed here, with the precise minimum N depending on p0 and dalt.

The partial area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (PAUC) is a well-established performance measure to evaluate biomarker combinations for disease classification. Because the PAUC is defined as the area under the ROC curve within a restricted interval of false positive rates, it enables practitioners to quantify sensitivity rates within pre-specified specificity ranges. This issue is of considerable importance for the development of medical screening tests. Although many authors have highlighted the importance of PAUC, there exist only few methods that use the PAUC as an objective function for finding optimal combinations of biomarkers. In this paper, we introduce a boosting method for deriving marker combinations that is explicitly based on the PAUC criterion. The proposed method can be applied in high-dimensional settings where the number of biomarkers exceeds the number of observations. Additionally, the proposed method incorporates a recently proposed variable selection technique (stability selection) that results in sparse prediction rules incorporating only those biomarkers that make relevant contributions to predicting the outcome of interest. Using both simulated data and real data, we demonstrate that our method performs well with respect to both variable selection and prediction accuracy. Specifically, if the focus is on a limited range of specificity values, the new method results in better predictions than other established techniques for disease classification.

Gene regulatory networks, in which edges between nodes describe interactions between transcription factors (TFs) and their target genes, model regulatory interactions that determine the cell-type and condition-specific expression of genes. Regression methods can be used to identify TF-target gene interactions from gene expression and DNA sequence data. The response variable, i.e. observed gene expression, is modeled as a function of many predictor variables simultaneously. In practice, it is generally not possible to select a single model that clearly achieves the best fit to the observed experimental data and the selected models typically contain overlapping sets of predictor variables. Moreover, parameters that represent the marginal effect of the individual predictors are not always present. In this paper, we use the statistical framework of estimation of variable importance to define variable importance as a parameter of interest and study two different estimators of this parameter in the context of gene regulatory networks. On yeast data we show that the resulting parameter has a biologically appealing interpretation. We apply the proposed methodology on mammalian gene expression data to gain insight into the temporal activity of TFs that underly gene expression changes in F11 cells in response to Forskolin stimulation.

The development of next generation genome sequencers gives the opportunity of learning more about the genetic make-up of human and other populations. One important question involves the location of sites at which variation occurs within a population. Our focus will be on the detection of rare variants. Such variants will often not be present in smaller samples and are hard to distinguish from sequencing errors in larger samples. This is particularly true for pooled samples which are often used as part of a cost saving strategy. The focus of this article is on experiments that involve DNA pooling. We derive experimental designs that optimize the power of statistical tests for detecting single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs, sites at which there is variation within a population). We also present a new simple test that calls a SNP, if the maximum number of reads of a prospective variant across lanes exceeds a certain threshold. The value of this threshold is defined according to the number of available lanes, the parameters of the genome sequencer and a specified probability of accepting that there is variation at a site when no variation is present. On the basis of this test, we derive pool sizes which are optimal for the detection of rare variants. This test is compared with a likelihood ratio test, which takes into account the number of reads of a prospective variant from all the lanes. It is shown that the threshold based rule achieves a comparable power to this likelihood ratio test and may well be a useful tool in determining near optimal pool sizes for the detection of rare alleles in practical applications.