Using data from NFL seasons 1960-2007, we examine the quarterback rating and the four variables of which it consists: average yards per attempt, completion percentage, interception percentage, and touchdown percentage. We test for structural breaks in the means and standard deviations of each variable. The analysis finds evidence that there are structural breaks in the series likely associated with rule changes designed to promote the passing game and the implementation of the salary cap. The break test results as a whole suggest that comparisons of quarterbacks from different regimes are inappropriate unless the regime differences are taken into account. There appears to have been a simultaneous improvement in quarterback performance and reduction in volatility suggestive of the idea that the relative difference between above average and average quarterbacks has been reduced. Using graph theory and the information gleamed from structural break tests, we examine the causal relationships among the four quarterback rating variables over the most recent stable period, which is 2000-2007. The causal analysis shows that completion percentage is commonly caused by interception percentage and average yards per attempt over the course of a season. Also, touchdown percentage causes average yards per attempt. We suggest possible explanations of the findings and suggest avenues for future research.
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Band 5, Heft 2 - 2008 Northern California Symposium on Statistics and Operations Research in Sports
April 2009
Inhalt
- Conference Paper
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Erfordert eine Authentifizierung Nicht lizenziertA Statistical Analysis of NFL Quarterback Rating VariablesLizenziert1. Mai 2009
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Erfordert eine Authentifizierung Nicht lizenziertOptimizing Football Game Play CallingLizenziert1. Mai 2009
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Erfordert eine Authentifizierung Nicht lizenziertAssessing Methods for College Football RankingsLizenziert1. Mai 2009
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Erfordert eine Authentifizierung Nicht lizenziertChasing DiMaggio: Streaks in Simulated Seasons Using Non-Constant At-BatsLizenziert1. Mai 2009
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Erfordert eine Authentifizierung Nicht lizenziertModeling Baseball Player Ability with a Nested Dirichlet DistributionLizenziert1. Mai 2009
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Erfordert eine Authentifizierung Nicht lizenziert`If the Team Doesn't Win, Nobody Wins:' A Team-Level Analysis of Pay and Performance Relationships in Major League BaseballLizenziert1. Mai 2009
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Erfordert eine Authentifizierung Nicht lizenziertKeeping the Hitter Off Balance: Mixed Strategies in BaseballLizenziert1. Mai 2009
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Erfordert eine Authentifizierung Nicht lizenziertUsing Simulation to Estimate the Impact of Baserunning Ability in BaseballLizenziert1. Mai 2009
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Erfordert eine Authentifizierung Nicht lizenziertA New Handicapping System for GolfLizenziert1. Mai 2009
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Erfordert eine Authentifizierung Nicht lizenziertScramble Teams for the Pinehurst Terrapin ClassicLizenziert1. Mai 2009
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Erfordert eine Authentifizierung Nicht lizenziertPythagoras and the National Hockey LeagueLizenziert1. Mai 2009
Ausgaben in diesem Band
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Heft 4
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Heft 3
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Heft 22008 Northern California Symposium on Statistics and Operations Research in Sports
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Heft 1
Ausgaben in diesem Band
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Heft 4
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Heft 3
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Heft 22008 Northern California Symposium on Statistics and Operations Research in Sports
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Heft 1