Investigating the preparation phase of volcanic eruptions using Swarm and GPS-TEC satellite data: The case of the 29 May 2024 Iceland-Sundhnúkur volcanic eruption
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Mehdi Akhoondzadeh
Abstract
In the last 6 months, 5 eruptions have been reported at the location of Iceland’s volcanoes. In this study using the electron density and temperature data measured by the LP sensor onboard the Swarm satellites (A, B, C), the volcanic ionospheric anomalies around the location and time of the Sundhnúkur volcano have been investigated. Most parameters measured by the three Swarm satellites show striking anomalies on 34 and 8 days before the eruption. Also, in this study, GPS-TEC data were used as a volcanic precursor, and median-interquartile method was implemented to detect hidden and highly nonlinear volcano-ionospheric anomalies. This precursor detected clear anomalies in the time interval of 8 days before the eruption. Also, the values of AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth) parameter indicate abnormal behavior on 9 days prior to the event. To reduce the uncertainty of the detected volcanic anomalies, a confutation analysis was also performed, and no clear anomalies were observed in the same spatial and temporal interval studied, but in 2019. The observed anomalies are consistent with geological and seismic reports. For more detailed analysis, we separately investigated the tracks of the satellites crossing the volcano’s buffer zone. Observed anomalies in the time series analysis were acknowledged. Therefore, the results of this study emphasizes that Swarm satellite data, along with other satellite and field data, can be used to predict, detect and track volcanic activities and it is shown that by comparison with other lithospheric and atmospheric precursors, uncertainty in eruption prediction can be reduced.
Acknowledgments
The author would like to acknowledge the Space Weather Canada for the solar data that are freely available at https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php, Giovanni web site for the atmospheric data that are freely available at http://giovanni.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/giovanni/, the European Space Agency (ESA) for the Swarm data that are freely available at HTTP or FTP (anonymous login) server: swarm-diss.eo.esa.int and NASA NOAA for the geomagnetic indices that are freely available at https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/indices/indices.html.
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Research ethics: Not applicable.
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Informed consent: Not applicable.
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Author contributions: Conceptualisation, methodology, software, data curation, and writing —original draft preparation by M.A.
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Use of Large Language Models, AI and Machine Learning Tools: None declared.
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Conflict of interest: The author states no conflict of interest.
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Research funding: No funding.
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Data availability: The raw data can be obtained on request from the corresponding author.
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