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Pandemic management by a spatio–temporal mathematical model

  • Teddy Lazebnik ORCID logo EMAIL logo , Svetlana Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky ORCID logo und Labib Shami
Veröffentlicht/Copyright: 9. August 2021
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International Journal of Nonlinear Sciences and Numerical Simulation
Aus der Zeitschrift International Journal of Nonlinear Sciences and Numerical Simulation Band 24 Heft 6

Abstract

Many researchers have tried to predict the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on morbidity, in order to help policy-makers find optimal isolation policies. However, despite the development and use of many models and sophisticated tools, these forecasting attempts have largely failed. We present a model that considers the severity of the disease and the heterogeneity of contacts between the population in complex space–time dynamics. Using mathematical and computational methods, the applied tool was developed to analyze and manage the COVID-19 pandemic (from an epidemiological point of view), with a particular focus on population heterogeneity in terms of age, susceptibility, and symptom severity. We show improved strategies to prevent an epidemic outbreak. We evaluated the model in three countries, obtaining an average mean square error of 0.067 over a full month of the basic reproduction number (R 0). The goal of this study is to create a theoretical framework for crisis management that integrates accumulated epidemiological considerations. An applied result is an open-source program for predicting the outcome of an isolation strategy for future researchers and developers who can use and extend our model.

Keywords: COVID-19 spread simulator; distributed computing SIRD; multi-NPI model; social events management
MSC 2010: 34-04; 65-05; 68U20
Corresponding author: Teddy Lazebnik, Department of Mathematics, Ariel University, Ariel, Israel, E-mail:

A.O. Teddy Lazebnik contributed equally to this work with A.T. Svetlana Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky.

  1. Author contribution: All the authors have accepted responsibility for the entire content of this submitted manuscript and approved submission.

  2. Research funding: None declared.

  3. Conflict of interest statement: The authors declare no conflicts of interest regarding this article.

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Supplementary Material

The online version of this article offers supplementary material (https://doi.org/10.1515/ijnsns-2021-0063).

Received: 2021-02-14
Revised: 2021-06-08
Accepted: 2021-07-20
Published Online: 2021-08-09

© 2021 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Artikel in diesem Heft

  1. Frontmatter
  2. Original Research Articles
  3. Frequency responses for induced neural transmembrane potential by electromagnetic waves (1 kHz to 1 GHz)
  4. Investigating existence results for fractional evolution inclusions with order r ∈ (1, 2) in Banach space
  5. Optimal control of non-instantaneous impulsive second-order stochastic McKean–Vlasov evolution system with Clarke subdifferential
  6. Generalized forms of fractional Euler and Runge–Kutta methods using non-uniform grid
  7. Controllability of coupled fractional integrodifferential equations
  8. A new generalized approach to study the existence of solutions of nonlinear fractional boundary value problems
  9. Rational soliton solutions in the nonlocal coupled complex modified Korteweg–de Vries equations
  10. Buoyancy driven flow characteristics inside a cavity equiped with diamond elliptic array
  11. Analysis and numerical effects of time-delayed rabies epidemic model with diffusion
  12. Two occurrences of fractional actions in nonlinear dynamics
  13. Multiwave interaction solutions for a (3 + 1)-dimensional B-type Kadomtsev–Petviashvili equation in fluid dynamics
  14. Effects of mixed time delays and D operators on fixed-time synchronization of discontinuous neutral-type neural networks
  15. Solvability and stability of nonlinear hybrid ∆-difference equations of fractional-order
  16. Weak and strong boundedness for p-adic fractional Hausdorff operator and its commutator
  17. Simulation and modeling of different cell shapes for closed-cell LM-13 alloy foam for compressive behavior
  18. Pandemic management by a spatio–temporal mathematical model
  19. Adaptive ADI difference solution of quenching problems based on the 3D convection–reaction–diffusion equation
  20. Null controllability of Hilfer fractional stochastic integrodifferential equations with noninstantaneous impulsive and Poisson jump
  21. Application of modified Mickens iteration procedure to a pendulum and the motion of a mass attached to a stretched elastic wire
  22. Modeling the spatiotemporal intracellular calcium dynamics in nerve cell with strong memory effects
  23. Switched coupled system of nonlinear impulsive Langevin equations involving Hilfer fractional-order derivatives
  24. Improving the dynamic behavior of the plate under supersonic air flow by using nonlinear energy sink
https://doi.org/10.1515/ijnsns-2021-0063
Schlagwörter für diesen Artikel
COVID-19 spread simulator; distributed computing SIRD; multi-NPI model; social events management

Artikel in diesem Heft

  1. Frontmatter
  2. Original Research Articles
  3. Frequency responses for induced neural transmembrane potential by electromagnetic waves (1 kHz to 1 GHz)
  4. Investigating existence results for fractional evolution inclusions with order r ∈ (1, 2) in Banach space
  5. Optimal control of non-instantaneous impulsive second-order stochastic McKean–Vlasov evolution system with Clarke subdifferential
  6. Generalized forms of fractional Euler and Runge–Kutta methods using non-uniform grid
  7. Controllability of coupled fractional integrodifferential equations
  8. A new generalized approach to study the existence of solutions of nonlinear fractional boundary value problems
  9. Rational soliton solutions in the nonlocal coupled complex modified Korteweg–de Vries equations
  10. Buoyancy driven flow characteristics inside a cavity equiped with diamond elliptic array
  11. Analysis and numerical effects of time-delayed rabies epidemic model with diffusion
  12. Two occurrences of fractional actions in nonlinear dynamics
  13. Multiwave interaction solutions for a (3 + 1)-dimensional B-type Kadomtsev–Petviashvili equation in fluid dynamics
  14. Effects of mixed time delays and D operators on fixed-time synchronization of discontinuous neutral-type neural networks
  15. Solvability and stability of nonlinear hybrid ∆-difference equations of fractional-order
  16. Weak and strong boundedness for p-adic fractional Hausdorff operator and its commutator
  17. Simulation and modeling of different cell shapes for closed-cell LM-13 alloy foam for compressive behavior
  18. Pandemic management by a spatio–temporal mathematical model
  19. Adaptive ADI difference solution of quenching problems based on the 3D convection–reaction–diffusion equation
  20. Null controllability of Hilfer fractional stochastic integrodifferential equations with noninstantaneous impulsive and Poisson jump
  21. Application of modified Mickens iteration procedure to a pendulum and the motion of a mass attached to a stretched elastic wire
  22. Modeling the spatiotemporal intracellular calcium dynamics in nerve cell with strong memory effects
  23. Switched coupled system of nonlinear impulsive Langevin equations involving Hilfer fractional-order derivatives
  24. Improving the dynamic behavior of the plate under supersonic air flow by using nonlinear energy sink
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