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Threat, Mobilization, and Latino Voting in the 2018 Election

  • Tyler Reny

    Tyler Reny is a PhD Candidate at the University of California Los Angeles. His research examines the origins and consequences of racial attitudes. He has published in The American Political Science Review, Public Opinion Quarterly, Comparative Political Studies, Political Research Quarterly, Social Sciences Quarterly, and Aztlán.

     EMAIL logo     , Bryan Wilcox-Archuleta

    Bryan Wilcox-Archuleta is a PhD candidate in political science and MS candidate in statistics at the University of California Los Angeles. His research interests include American politics, political behavior, race and ethnic politics, and quantitative methods. His work is supported by The John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation. He has published in Political Behavior, Political Research Quarterly, Research and Politics, Journal of Race, Ethnicity and Politics, and Aztlán.

         und Vanessa Cruz Nichols

    Vanessa Cruz Nichols is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Center for Research on Race and Ethnicity in Society and Visiting Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at Indiana University. Her research interests have centered on citizen activism and motivators of political participation with a particular focus on reassessing the hypothesis that threat is the main catalyst that awakens the Latino “sleeping giant.” She has published in Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law, Public Administration Review, and PS: Political Science and Politics. Her book project is tentatively titled Latinos Rising to the Challenge: Political Responses to Peril and Promise.
Veröffentlicht/Copyright: 27. Februar 2019
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Abstract

Throughout the 2016 US presidential campaign and the first 2 years of his presidency, Donald Trump has repeatedly dehumanized immigrants in pursuit of more restrictive immigration policies. Despite the common perception that this threat should increase the political mobilization of Latino voters, existing research has yielded mixed findings. In this article, we argue that attention has to be paid to both threatening climate and mobilization. We examine Latino voting in the 2018 midterm election using both aggregate election data from 2014 and 2018 as well as a large 10-week tracking poll (n=2767) of Latinos during the last 2 months of the 2018 election. We show that, compared to 2014, the number of ballots cast by Latinos increased substantially. Using the tracking poll, however, we show that threat alone did not appear to be sufficient to mobilize Latino voters in the 2018 election. It is threat combined with mobilization, rather, that increased Latino voting. We discuss implications for future Latino political participation in the US.

About the authors

Tyler Reny

Tyler Reny is a PhD Candidate at the University of California Los Angeles. His research examines the origins and consequences of racial attitudes. He has published in The American Political Science Review, Public Opinion Quarterly, Comparative Political Studies, Political Research Quarterly, Social Sciences Quarterly, and Aztlán.

Bryan Wilcox-Archuleta

Bryan Wilcox-Archuleta is a PhD candidate in political science and MS candidate in statistics at the University of California Los Angeles. His research interests include American politics, political behavior, race and ethnic politics, and quantitative methods. His work is supported by The John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation. He has published in Political Behavior, Political Research Quarterly, Research and Politics, Journal of Race, Ethnicity and Politics, and Aztlán.

Vanessa Cruz Nichols

Vanessa Cruz Nichols is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Center for Research on Race and Ethnicity in Society and Visiting Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at Indiana University. Her research interests have centered on citizen activism and motivators of political participation with a particular focus on reassessing the hypothesis that threat is the main catalyst that awakens the Latino “sleeping giant.” She has published in Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law, Public Administration Review, and PS: Political Science and Politics. Her book project is tentatively titled Latinos Rising to the Challenge: Political Responses to Peril and Promise.

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Published Online: 2019-02-27
Published in Print: 2018-12-19

©2018 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Artikel in diesem Heft

  1. Frontmatter
  2. Introduction – Winter volume of Forum
  3. Articles
  4. Congressional Midterm Forecasts: A Trump Economic Difference?
  5. Affirmations for an Aging Electoral Order: The Mid-Term Elections of 2018
  6. Explaining Electoral Change in the 2018 US Midterm Elections: The Three Components of Electoral Mandates
  7. Donald Trump, Nationalization, and the 2018 Midterm Elections
  8. From Fox News to Viral Views: The Influence of Ideological Media in the 2018 Elections
  9. Threat, Mobilization, and Latino Voting in the 2018 Election
  10. An “Authoritarian Spring?” Authoritarianism and the 2018 Midterm Elections
  11. Is it a Chasm? Is it a Canyon? No, it is the Gender Gap
  12. Evaluating Candidate Positioning and Success in the 2018 Midterm Elections
  13. A Trump Effect? Women and the 2018 Midterm Elections
  14. Book reviews
  15. Review of First to the Party: The Group Origins of Political Transformation
  16. The Great Revolt – Inside the Populist Coalition Reshaping American Politics
https://doi.org/10.1515/for-2018-0041

Artikel in diesem Heft

  1. Frontmatter
  2. Introduction – Winter volume of Forum
  3. Articles
  4. Congressional Midterm Forecasts: A Trump Economic Difference?
  5. Affirmations for an Aging Electoral Order: The Mid-Term Elections of 2018
  6. Explaining Electoral Change in the 2018 US Midterm Elections: The Three Components of Electoral Mandates
  7. Donald Trump, Nationalization, and the 2018 Midterm Elections
  8. From Fox News to Viral Views: The Influence of Ideological Media in the 2018 Elections
  9. Threat, Mobilization, and Latino Voting in the 2018 Election
  10. An “Authoritarian Spring?” Authoritarianism and the 2018 Midterm Elections
  11. Is it a Chasm? Is it a Canyon? No, it is the Gender Gap
  12. Evaluating Candidate Positioning and Success in the 2018 Midterm Elections
  13. A Trump Effect? Women and the 2018 Midterm Elections
  14. Book reviews
  15. Review of First to the Party: The Group Origins of Political Transformation
  16. The Great Revolt – Inside the Populist Coalition Reshaping American Politics
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