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One important use of statistical methods in application to biological data is measurement of evidence, or assessment of the degree to which data support one or another hypothesis. While there is a small literature on this topic, it seems safe to say that consensus has not yet been reached regarding how best, or most accurately, to measure statistical evidence. Here, we propose considering the problem as a measurement problem, rather than as a statistical problem per se, and we explore the consequences of this shift in perspective. Our arguments here are part of an ongoing research program focused on exploiting deep parallelisms between foundations of thermodynamics and foundations of “evidentialism,” in order to derive an absolute scale for the measurement of evidence, a general framework in the context of which that scale is validated, and the many ancillary benefits that come from having such a framework in place.

Gene expression microarray experiments with few replications lead to great variability in estimates of gene variances. Several Bayesian methods have been developed to reduce this variability and to increase power. Thus far, moderated t methods assumed a constant coefficient of variation (CV) for the gene variances. We provide evidence against this assumption, and extend the method by allowing the CV to vary with gene expression. Our CV varying method, which we refer to as the fully moderated t-statistic, was compared to three other methods (ordinary t, and two moderated t predecessors). A simulation study and a familiar spike-in data set were used to assess the performance of the testing methods. The results showed that our CV varying method had higher power than the other three methods, identified a greater number of true positives in spike-in data, fit simulated data under varying assumptions very well, and in a real data set better identified higher expressing genes that were consistent with functional pathways associated with the experiments.

Recent experimental and computational work confirms that CpGs can be unmethylated inside coding exons, thereby showing that codons may be subjected to both genomic and epigenomic constraint. It is therefore of interest to identify coding CpG islands (CCGIs) that are regions inside exons enriched for CpGs. The difficulty in identifying such islands is that coding exons exhibit sequence biases determined by codon usage and constraints that must be taken into account. We present a method for finding CCGIs that showcases a novel approach we have developed for identifying regions of interest that are significant (with respect to a Markov chain) for the counts of any pattern. Our method begins with the exact computation of tail probabilities for the number of CpGs in all regions contained in coding exons, and then applies a greedy algorithm for selecting islands from among the regions. We show that the greedy algorithm provably optimizes a biologically motivated criterion for selecting islands while controlling the false discovery rate. We applied this approach to the human genome (hg18) and annotated CpG islands in coding exons. The statistical criterion we apply to evaluating islands reduces the number of false positives in existing annotations, while our approach to defining islands reveals significant numbers of undiscovered CCGIs in coding exons. Many of these appear to be examples of functional epigenetic specialization in coding exons.

Random matrix theory (RMT) is well suited to describing the emergent properties of systems with complex interactions amongst their constituents through their eigenvalue spectrums. Some RMT results are applied to the problem of clustering high dimensional biological data with complex dependence structure amongst the variables. It will be shown that a gene relevance or correlation network can be constructed by choosing a correlation threshold in a principled way, such that it corresponds to a block diagonal structure in the correlation matrix, if such a structure exists. The structure is then found using community detection algorithms, but with parameter choice guided by RMT predictions. The resulting clustering is compared to a variety of hierarchical clustering outputs and is found to the most generalised result, in that it captures all the features found by the other considered methods.

In this paper, we develop a Genetic Algorithm that can address the fundamental problem of how one should weight the summary statistics included in an approximate Bayesian computation analysis built around an accept/reject algorithm, and how one might choose the tolerance for that analysis. We then demonstrate that using weighted statistics, and a well-chosen tolerance, in such an approximate Bayesian computation approach can result in improved performance, when compared to unweighted analyses, using one example drawn purely from statistics and two drawn from the estimation of population genetics parameters.

Germline mosaicism is a genetic condition in which some germ cells of an individual contain a mutation. This condition violates the assumptions underlying classic genetic analysis and may lead to failure of such analysis. In this work we extend the statistical model used for genetic linkage analysis in order to incorporate germline mosaicism. We develop a likelihood ratio test for detecting whether a genetic trait has been introduced into a pedigree by germline mosaicism. We analyze the statistical properties of this test and evaluate its performance via computer simulations. We demonstrate that genetic linkage analysis has high power to identify linkage in the presence of germline mosaicism when our extended model is used. We further use this extended model to provide solid statistical evidence that the MDN syndrome studied by Genzer-Nir et al. has been introduced by germline mosaicism.

Gene perturbation experiments are commonly used for the reconstruction of gene regulatory networks. Typical experimental methodology imposes persistent changes on the network. The resulting data must therefore be interpreted as a steady state from an altered gene regulatory network, rather than a direct observation of the original network. In this article an implicit modeling methodology is proposed in which the unperturbed network of interest is scored by first modeling the persistent perturbation, then predicting the steady state, which may then be compared to the observed data. This results in a many-to-one inverse problem, so a computational Bayesian approach is used to assess model uncertainty. The methodology is first demonstrated on a number of synthetic networks. It is shown that the Bayesian approach correctly assigns high posterior probability to the network structure and steady state behavior. Further, it is demonstrated that where uncertainty of model features is indicated, the uncertainty may be accurately resolved with further perturbation experiments. The methodology is then applied to the modeling of a gene regulatory network using perturbation data from nine genes which have been shown to respond synergistically to known oncogenic mutations. A hypothetical model emerges which conforms to reported regulatory properties of these genes. Furthermore, the Bayesian methodology is shown to be consistent in the sense that multiple randomized applications of the fitting algorithm converge to an approximately common posterior density on the space of models. Such consistency is generally not feasible for algorithms which report only single models. We conclude that fully Bayesian methods, coupled with models which accurately account for experimental constraints, are a suitable tool for the inference of gene regulatory networks, in terms of accuracy, estimation of model uncertainty, and experimental design.

Pathway or gene set analysis has become an increasingly popular approach for analyzing high-throughput biological experiments such as microarray gene expression studies. The purpose of pathway analysis is to identify differentially expressed pathways associated with outcomes. Important challenges in pathway analysis are selecting a subset of genes contributing most to association with clinical phenotypes and conducting statistical tests of association for the pathways efficiently. We propose a two-stage analysis strategy: (1) extract latent variables representing activities within each pathway using a dimension reduction approach based on adaptive elastic-net sparse principal component analysis; (2) integrate the latent variables with the regression modeling framework to analyze studies with different types of outcomes such as binary, continuous or survival outcomes. Our proposed approach is computationally efficient. For each pathway, because the latent variables are estimated in an unsupervised fashion without using disease outcome information, in the sample label permutation testing procedure, the latent variables only need to be calculated once rather than for each permutation resample. Using both simulated and real datasets, we show our approach performed favorably when compared with five other currently available pathway testing methods.

In studies of dynamic molecular networks in systems biology, experiments are increasingly exploiting technologies such as flow cytometry to generate data on marginal distributions of a few network nodes at snapshots in time. For example, levels of intracellular expression of a few genes, or cell surface protein markers, can be assayed at a series of interim time points and assumed steady-states under experimentally stimulated growth conditions in small cellular systems. Such marginal data on a small number of cellular markers will typically carry very limited information on the parameters and structure of dynamic network models, though experiments will typically be designed to expose variation in cellular phenotypes that are inherently related to some aspects of model parametrization and structure. Our work addresses statistical questions of how to integrate such data with dynamic stochastic models in order to properly quantify the information—or lack of information—it carries relative to models assumed. We present a Bayesian computational strategy coupled with a novel approach to summarizing and numerically characterizing biological phenotypes that are represented in terms of the resulting sample distributions of cellular markers. We build on Bayesian simulation methods and mixture modeling to define the approach to linking mechanistic mathematical models of network dynamics to snapshot data, using a toggle switch example integrating simulated and real data as context.

Tiling arrays make possible a large-scale exploration of the genome thanks to probes which cover the whole genome with very high density, up to 2,000,000 probes. Biological questions usually addressed are either the expression difference between two conditions or the detection of transcribed regions. In this work, we propose to consider both questions simultaneously as an unsupervised classification problem by modeling the joint distribution of the two conditions. In contrast to previous methods, we account for all available information on the probes as well as biological knowledge such as annotation and spatial dependence between probes. Since probes are not biologically relevant units, we propose a classification rule for non-connected regions covered by several probes. Applications to transcriptomic and ChIP-chip data of Arabidopsis thaliana obtained with a NimbleGen tiling array highlight the importance of a precise modeling and of the region classification. The "TAHMMAnnot" package is implemented in R and C and is freely available from CRAN.

In candidate gene association studies, usually several elementary hypotheses are tested simultaneously using one particular set of data. The data normally consist of partly correlated SNP information. Every SNP can be tested for association with the disease, e.g., using the Cochran-Armitage test for trend. To account for the multiplicity of the test situation, different types of multiple testing procedures have been proposed. The question arises whether procedures taking into account the discreteness of the situation show a benefit especially in case of correlated data. We empirically evaluate several different multiple testing procedures via simulation studies using simulated correlated SNP data. We analyze FDR and FWER controlling procedures, special procedures for discrete situations, and the minP-resampling-based procedure. Within the simulation study, we examine a broad range of different gene data scenarios. We show that the main difference in the varying performance of the procedures is due to sample size. In small sample size scenarios, the minP-resampling procedure though controlling the stricter FWER even had more power than the classical FDR controlling procedures. In contrast, FDR controlling procedures led to more rejections in higher sample size scenarios.

Varying depth of high-throughput sequencing reads along a chromosome makes it possible to observe copy number variants (CNVs) in a sample relative to a reference. In exome and other targeted sequencing projects, technical factors increase variation in read depth while reducing the number of observed locations, adding difficulty to the problem of identifying CNVs. We present a hidden Markov model for detecting CNVs from raw read count data, using background read depth from a control set as well as other positional covariates such as GC-content. The model, exomeCopy, is applied to a large chromosome X exome sequencing project identifying a list of large unique CNVs. CNVs predicted by the model and experimentally validated are then recovered using a cross-platform control set from publicly available exome sequencing data. Simulations show high sensitivity for detecting heterozygous and homozygous CNVs, outperforming normalization and state-of-the-art segmentation methods.

Inference methods applied to biological networks suffer from a main criticism: as the latter reflect associations measured under static conditions, an evaluation of the underlying modular organization can be biologically meaningful only if the dynamics can also be taken into consideration. The same limitation is present in protein interactome networks. Given the substantial uncertainty characterizing protein interactions, we identify at least three aspects that must be considered for inference purposes: 1. Coverage, which for most organisms is only partial; 2. Stochasticity, affecting both the high-throughput experimental and the computational settings from which the interactions are determined, and leading to suboptimal measurement accuracy; 3. Information variety, due to the heterogeneity of technological and biological sources generating the data. Consequently, advances in inference methods require adequate treatment of both system uncertainty and dynamical aspects. Feasible solutions are often made possible by data (omic) integration procedures that complement the experimental design and the computational approaches for network modeling. We present a multiscale stochastic approach to deal with protein interactions involved in a well-known signaling network, and show that based on some topological network features, it is possible to identify timescales (or resolutions) that characterize complex pathways.

AdaBoost is a popular and successful data mining technique for binary classification. However, there is no universally agreed upon extension of the method for problems with more than two classes. Most multiclass generalizations simply reduce the problem to a series of binary classification problems. The statistical interpretation of AdaBoost is that it operates through loss-based estimation: by using an exponential loss function as a surrogate for misclassification loss, it sequentially minimizes empirical risk through fitting a base classifier to iteratively reweighted training data. While there are several extensions using loss-based estimation with multiclass base classifiers, these use multiclass versions of the exponential loss that are not classification calibrated: unless restrictions are placed on conditional class probabilities, it becomes possible to have optimal surrogate risk but poor misclassification risk. In this work, we introduce a new AdaBoost extension called AdaBoost. SL that does not reduce the problem into binary subproblems and that uses a classification-calibrated multiclass exponential loss function. Numerical experiments show the algorithm performs well on benchmark datasets.

Stability Selection, which combines penalized regression with subsampling, is a promising algorithm to perform variable selection in ultra high dimension. This work is motivated by its evaluation in the context of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). One critical aspect for its use lies in the choice of a decision rule that accounts for the massive number of comparisons realised. The current decision rule relies on the control of the Family Wise Error Rate (FWER) by means of an upper bound derived theoretically. Alternatively, we propose to set the detection threshold according to the more liberal false discovery rate (FDR) criterion. The procedure we propose for its estimation relies on permutations. This procedure is evaluated by simulations according to several scenarios mimicking various correlation structures of genetic data and is compared to the original FWER upper bound. The proposed procedure is shown to be less conservative, and able to pick up more true signals than the FWER upper bound. Finally, the proposed methodology is illustrated on a GWAS analysis of a lipid phenotype (high-density lipoproteins, HDL) in the Northern Finland Birth Cohort.

The enzymatic 18O-labeling is a useful quantification technique to account for between-spectrum variability of the results of mass spectrometry experiments. One of the important issues related to the use of the technique is the problem of incomplete labeling of peptide molecules, which may result in biased estimates of the relative peptide abundance. In this manuscript, we propose a Markov-chain model, which takes into account the possibility of incomplete labeling in the estimation of the relative abundance from the observed data. This allows for the use of less precise but faster labeling strategies, which should better fit in the high-throughput proteomic framework. Our method does not require extra experimental steps, as proposed in the approaches developed by Mirgorodskaya et al. (2000), López-Ferrer et al. (2006) and Rao et al. (2005), while it includes the model proposed by Eckel-Passow et al. (2006) as a special case. The method estimates information about the isotopic distribution directly from the observed data and is able to account for biases induced by the different sulphur content in peptides as reported by Johnson and Muddiman (2004). The method is integrated in a statistically sound framework and allows for the calculation of the errors on the parameter estimates based on model theory. In this manuscript, we describe the methodology in a technical matter and assess the properties of the algorithm via a thorough simulation study. The method is also tested on a limited dataset; more intense validation and investigation of the operational characteristics is being scheduled.

In longitudinal and repeated measures data analysis, often the goal is to determine the effect of a treatment or aspect on a particular outcome (e.g., disease progression). We consider a semiparametric repeated measures regression model, where the parametric component models effect of the variable of interest and any modification by other covariates. The expectation of this parametric component over the other covariates is a measure of variable importance. Here, we present a targeted maximum likelihood estimator of the finite dimensional regression parameter, which is easily estimated using standard software for generalized estimating equations. The targeted maximum likelihood method provides double robust and locally efficient estimates of the variable importance parameters and inference based on the influence curve. We demonstrate these properties through simulation under correct and incorrect model specification, and apply our method in practice to estimating the activity of transcription factor (TF) over cell cycle in yeast. We specifically target the importance of SWI4, SWI6, MBP1, MCM1, ACE2, FKH2, NDD1, and SWI5.The semiparametric model allows us to determine the importance of a TF at specific time points by specifying time indicators as potential effect modifiers of the TF. Our results are promising, showing significant importance trends during the expected time periods. This methodology can also be used as a variable importance analysis tool to assess the effect of a large number of variables such as gene expressions or single nucleotide polymorphisms.

Evolutionary escape of pathogens from the selective pressure of immune responses and from medical interventions is driven by the accumulation of mutations. We introduce a statistical model for jointly estimating the dynamics and dependencies among genetic alterations and the associated phenotypic changes. The model integrates conjunctive Bayesian networks, which define a partial order on the occurrences of genetic events, with isotonic regression. The resulting genotype-phenotype map is non-decreasing in the lattice of genotypes. It describes evolutionary escape as a directed process following a phenotypic gradient, such as a monotonic fitness landscape. We present efficient algorithms for parameter estimation and model selection. The model is validated using simulated data and applied to HIV drug resistance data. We find that the effect of many resistance mutations is non-linear and depends on the genetic background in which they occur.

Recently, the amount of high-dimensional data has exploded, creating new analytical challenges for human genetics. Furthermore, much evidence suggests that common complex diseases may be due to complex etiologies such as gene-gene interactions, which are difficult to identify in high-dimensional data using traditional statistical approaches. Data-mining approaches are gaining popularity for variable selection in association studies, and one of the most commonly used methods to evaluate potential gene-gene interactions is Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR). Additionally, a number of penalized regression techniques, such as Lasso, are gaining popularity within the statistical community and are now being applied to association studies, including extensions for interactions. In this study, we compare the performance of MDR, the traditional lasso with L1 penalty (TL1), and the group lasso for categorical data with group-wise L1 penalty (GL1) to detect gene-gene interactions through a broad range of simulations. We find that each method has both advantages and disadvantages, and relative performance is context dependent. TL1 frequently over-fits, identifying false positive as well as true positive loci. MDR has higher power for epistatic models that exhibit independent main effects; for both Lasso methods, main effects tend to dominate. For purely epistatic models, GL1 has the best performance for lower minor allele frequencies, but MDR performs best for higher frequencies. These results provide guidance of when each approach might be best suited for detecting and characterizing interactions with different mechanisms.

We develop recent work on using graphical models for linkage disequilibrium to provide efficient programs for model fitting, phasing, and imputation of missing data in large data sets. Two important features contribute to the computational efficiency: the separation of the model fitting and phasing-imputation processes into different programs, and holding in memory only the data within a moving window of loci during model fitting. Optimal parameter values were chosen by cross-validation to maximize the probability of correctly imputing masked genotypes. The best accuracy obtained is slightly below than that from the Beagle program of Browning and Browning, and our fitting program is slower. However, for large data sets, it uses less storage. For a reference set of n individuals genotyped at m markers, the time and storage required for fitting a graphical model are approximately O(nm) and O(n+m), respectively. To impute the phases and missing data on n individuals using an already fitted graphical model requires O(nm) time and O(m) storage. While the times for fitting and imputation are both O(nm), the imputation process is considerably faster; thus, once a model is estimated from a reference data set, the marginal cost of phasing and imputing further samples is very low.

Infections with the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) are treated with combinations of drugs. Unfortunately, HIV responds to the treatment by developing resistance mutations. Consequently, the genome of the viral target proteins is sequenced and inspected for resistance mutations as part of routine diagnostic procedures for ensuring an effective treatment. For predicting response to a combination therapy, currently available computer-based methods rely on the genotype of the virus and the composition of the regimen as input. However, no available tool takes full advantage of the knowledge about the order of and the response to previously prescribed regimens. The resulting high-dimensional feature space makes existing methods difficult to apply in a straightforward fashion. The machine learning system proposed in this work, sequence boosting, is tailored to exploiting such high-dimensional information, i.e. the extraction of longitudinal features, by utilizing the recent advancements in data mining and boosting. When applied to predicting the latest treatment outcome for 3,759 treatment-experienced patients from the EuResist integrated database, sequence boosting achieved superior performance compared to SVMs with RBF kernels. Moreover, sequence boosting allows an easy access to the discriminative treatment information. Analysis of feature importance values provided by our model confirmed known facts regarding HIV treatment. For instance, application of potent and recently licensed drugs was beneficial for patients, and, conversely, the patient group that was subject to NRTI mono-therapies in the past had poor treatment perspectives today. Furthermore, our model revealed novel biological insights. More precisely, the combination of previously used drugs with their in vivo response is more informative than the information of previously used drugs alone. Using this information improves the performance of systems for predicting therapy outcome.

We propose a robust model for discovering differentially expressed genes which directly incorporates biological significance, i.e., effect dimension. Using the so-called c-fold rule, we transform the expressions into a nominal observed random variable with three categories: below a fixed lower threshold, above a fixed upper threshold or within the two thresholds. Gene expression data is then transformed into a nominal variable with three levels possibly originated by three different distributions corresponding to under expressed, not differential, and over expressed genes. This leads to a statistical model for a 3-component mixture of trinomial distributions with suitable constraints on the parameter space. In order to obtain the MLE estimates, we show how to implement a constrained EM algorithm with a latent label for the corresponding component of each gene. Different strategies for a statistically significant gene discovery are discussed and compared. We illustrate the method on a little simulation study and a real dataset on multiple sclerosis.

It has long been known that the amino-acid sequence of a protein determines its 3-dimensional structure, but accurate ab initio prediction of structure from sequence remains elusive. We gain insight into local protein structure conformation by studying the relationship of dihedral angles in pairs of residues in protein sequences (dipeptides). We adopt a contingency table approach, exploring a targeted set of hypotheses through log-linear modelling to detect patterns of association of these dihedral angles in all dipeptides considered. Our models indicate a substantial association of the side-chain conformation of the first residue with the backbone conformation of the second residue (side-to-back interaction) as well as a weaker but still significant association of the backbone conformation of the first residue with the side-chain conformation of the second residue (back-to-side interaction). To compare these interactions across different dipeptides, we cluster the parameter estimates for the corresponding association terms. This reveals a striking pattern. For the side-to-back term, all dipeptides which have the same first residue jointly appear in distinct clusters whereas for the back-to-side term, we observe a much weaker pattern. This suggests that the conformation of the first residue affects the conformation of the second.

Null alleles are common technical artifacts in genetic-based analysis. Powerful methods enabling their detection in either panmictic or inbred populations have been proposed. However, none of these methods appears unbiased in both types of mating systems, necessitating a priori knowledge of the inbreeding level of the population under study. To counter this problem, I propose to use the software FDist2 to detect the atypical fixation indices that characterize markers with null alleles. The rational behind this approach and the parameter settings are explained. The power of the method for various sample sizes, degrees of inbreeding and null allele frequencies is evaluated using simulated microsatellite and SNP datasets and then compared to two other null allele detection methods. The results clearly show the robustness of the method proposed here as well as its greater accuracy in both panmictic and inbred populations for both types of marker. By allowing a proper detection of null alleles for a wide range of mating systems and markers, this new method is particularly appealing for numerous genetic studies using co-dominant loci.

Simulation studies have been the main way in which properties of maximum likelihood estimation of evolutionary trees from aligned sequence data have been studied. Because trees are unusual parameters and because fitting is computationally intensive, such studies have a heavy computational cost. We develop an asymptotic framework that can be used to obtain probabilities of correct topological reconstruction and study other properties of likelihood methods when a single split is poorly resolved. Simulations suggest that while approximations to log likelihood differences are better for less well-resolved topologies, approximations to probabilities of correct reconstruction are generally good. We used the approximations to investigate biases in estimation and found that maximum likelihood estimation has a long-branch-repels bias. This differs from the long-branch-attracts bias often reported in the literature because it is a different form of bias. For maximum likelihood estimation, usually long-branch-attracts bias results arise in the presence of model misspecification and are a form of statistical inconsistency where the estimated tree converges upon an incorrect tree with long edges together. Here, by bias we mean a tendency to favour a particular topology when data are generated from a four-taxon star tree. While we find a tendency to favour the tree with long branches apart, with more extreme long edges, a strong small sequence-length long-branch-attracts bias overwhelms the long-branch-repels bias. The long-branch-repels bias generalizes to five and six taxa in the sense that subtrees containing taxa that are all distant from the poorly resolved split repel each other.

We study the estimation of familial correlations from pedigree data without the assumption of multivariate normality, using asymptotic results to obtain standard errors and confidence intervals. Two extreme weights that can be given to pairs of observations from relatives in pedigrees are pair-wise weights, in which each pair is given the same weight, and uniform weights, in which each pedigree is given the same weight. A best weighted average of these two estimates for a particular correlation as well as its standard error are derived using quadratic models for the estimates and their variances. Conclusions regarding the adequacy of the method in terms of bias, absolute bias, variance, and confidence interval coverage probabilities are presented on the basis of results from simulation studies. We determine under what circumstances the nominal 95 percent confidence intervals have excellent average coverage of the true values even for samples of small size and under what circumstances the results must be viewed with caution. We then describe a procedure by which, for both small family and large family structures, we find that the estimates we recommend provide accurate results.

Information-theoretic metrics have been proposed for studying gene-gene and gene-environment interactions in genetic epidemiology. Although these metrics have proven very promising, they are typically interpreted in the context of communications and information transmission, diminishing their tangibility for epidemiologists and statisticians. In this paper, we clarify the interpretation of information-theoretic metrics. In particular, we develop the methods so that their relation to the global properties of probability models is made clear and contrast them with log-linear models for multinomial data. Hopefully, a better understanding of their properties and probabilistic implications will promote their acceptance and correct usage in genetic epidemiology. Our novel development also suggests new approaches to model search and computation.

Gene-set analysis (GSA) aims to identify sets of differentially expressed genes by a phenotype in DNA microarray studies. Challenges occur due to the salient characteristics of the data: (1) the number of genes is far larger than the number of observations; (2) gene expression measurements, especially within each gene set, can be highly correlated; and (3) the number of gene sets that can be examined is large and increasing rapidly. These challenges call for gene-set testing procedures that have both efficiency in computation for large GSAs and high power in the presence of the high correlation. We propose a new GSA approach called Linear Combination Test (LCT), incorporating the covariance matrix estimator of gene expression into the test statistic. The proposed LCT and two other GSA methods, a mod-ification of Hotelling’s T2 using a shrinkage covariance matrix and our SAM-GS (Dinu et. al. 2007), the two methods that have been reported by Tsai and Chen (2009) to perform best in terms of power, are evaluated in simulation studies and a real microarray study. The LCT method is more computationally efficient than the modified Hotelling’s T2 and approximates the superb power of the modified Hotelling’s T2. LCT is slightly faster than SAM-GS, but more powerful, due to incorporating the covariance matrix estimator. An extra step to enhance the interpretation of GSA results is also proposed in the form of a hierarchical LC (HLC) testing procedure, providing scientists useful hierarchical information on gene sets that LCT identified as differentially expressed. Availability: A free R-code to perform LCT-GSA and HLC test is available at http://www.ualberta.ca/~yyasui/homepage.html.

The integration of multiple high-dimensional data sets (omics data) has been a very active but challenging area of bioinformatics research in recent years. Various adaptations of non-standard multivariate statistical tools have been suggested that allow to analyze and visualize such data sets simultaneously. However, these methods typically can deal with two data sets only, whereas systems biology experiments often generate larger numbers of high-dimensional data sets. For this reason, we suggest an explorative analysis of similarity between data sets as an initial analysis steps. This analysis is based on the RV coefficient, a matrix correlation, that can be interpreted as a generalization of the squared correlation from two single variables to two sets of variables. It has been shown before however that the high-dimensionality of the data introduces substantial bias to the RV.We therefore introduce an alternative version, the adjusted RV, which is unbiased in the case of independent data sets. We can also show that in many situations, particularly for very high-dimensional data sets, the adjusted RV is a better estimator than previously RV versions in terms of the mean square error and the power of the independence test based on it. We demonstrate the usefulness of the adjusted RV by applying it to data set of 19 different multivariate data sets from a systems biology experiment. The pairwise RV values between the data sets define a similarity matrix that we can use as an input to a hierarchical clustering or a multi-dimensional scaling. We show that this reveals biological meaningful subgroups of data sets in our study.

Univariate methods have frequently been used to discover Quantitative Trait Loci for gene expression measurements, often with much success. However, correlations caused by Linkage Disequilibrium as well as chance correlations, which are functions of the large number of markers typically used in such studies, mean that causative regions can often cause multiple signals. Traditional investigations into the number of QTL for a given phenotype, such as visual inspection of likelihood plots, are not feasible when considering thousands of phenotypes. Stepwise methods have been suggested to counter this, but these are known to produce unstable models and there are difficulties in deriving significance estimates. The Lasso is a shrinkage method which has often been employed to discover true signals when the number of variables exceeds the number of observations. We propose a test statistic based on the threshold at which variables enter the Lasso model, prove analytic properties of this statistic which demonstrate parallels with univariate methods and demonstrate its utility in proposing candidate QTL. We show that this method controls for LD structure, and the estimates of statistical significance produced have superior properties when compared to those derived by stepwise methods. We study the performance of our method using simulation studies. These simulations find that the ratio of true discoveries to false positives is often superior for our method compared to univariate and stepwise approaches. Finally, we apply the derived method to data from a previous eQTL mapping experiment to investigate the nature of genetic regulation in this population.

Phylogenetic trees describe evolutionary relationships between related organisms (taxa). One approach to estimating phylogenetic trees supposes that a matrix of estimated evolutionary distances between taxa is available. Agglomerative methods have been proposed in which closely related taxon-pairs are successively combined to form ancestral taxa. Several of these computationally efficient agglomerative algorithms involve steps to reduce the variance in estimated distances. We propose an agglomerative phylogenetic method which focuses on statistical modeling of variance components in distance estimates. We consider how these variance components evolve during the agglomerative process. Our method simultaneously produces two topologically identical rooted trees, one tree having branch lengths proportional to elapsed time, and the other having branch lengths proportional to underlying evolutionary divergence. The method models two major sources of variation which have been separately discussed in the literature: noise, reflecting inaccuracies in measuring divergences, and distortion, reflecting randomness in the amounts of divergence in different parts of the tree. The methodology is based on successive hierarchical generalized least-squares regressions. It involves only means, variances and covariances of distance estimates, thereby avoiding full distributional assumptions. Exploitation of the algebraic structure of the estimation leads to an algorithm with computational complexity comparable to the leading published agglomerative methods. A parametric bootstrap procedure allows full uncertainty in the phylogenetic reconstruction to be assessed. Software implementing the methodology may be freely downloaded from StatTree.

Inference problems with incomplete observations often aim at estimating population properties of unobserved quantities. One simple way to accomplish this estimation is to impute the unobserved quantities of interest at the individual level and then take an empirical average of the imputed values. We show that this simple imputation estimator can provide partial protection against model misspecification. We illustrate imputation estimators’ robustness to model specification on three examples: mixture model-based clustering, estimation of genotype frequencies in population genetics, and estimation of Markovian evolutionary distances. In the final example, using a representative model misspecification, we demonstrate that in non-degenerate cases, the imputation estimator dominates the plug-in estimate asymptotically. We conclude by outlining a Bayesian implementation of the imputation-based estimation.

In this paper we establish the statistical properties of SGoF multitesting method under a mixture model. It is assumed that the available set of p-values is statistically independent. Special attention is paid to the huge dimension problem in which the number of tests goes to infinity. Formulae for the power and the rate of false discoveries/non-discoveries of SGoF are given, so the role of the gamma-parameter of SGoF is understood. The existing connection between SGoF and a test of significance for the proportion of non-true nulls below gamma is explored. This connection suggests a possible modification of SGoF which may improve the power of the method. Simulation studies and a real data illustration are included.

In many cases in genetic epidemiology, the investigators in an effort to control for different sources of confounding and simultaneously to increase the power perform a family-based and a population-based case-control study within the same population, using the same or largely overlapping, set of cases. Various methods have been proposed for performing a combined analysis, but they all require access to individual data that are difficult to gather in a meta-analysis. Here, we propose a simple and efficient summary-based method for performing the meta-analysis. The key point, contrary to the methods presented earlier that need individual data, is the calculation of the covariance between the study estimates (log-Odds Ratios), using only data derived from the literature in the form of a 2x2 contingency table. Afterwards, the studies can easily be combined either in a two-step procedure using traditional methods for univariate meta-analysis or in a single-step approach using hierarchical models. In any case, the meta-analysis can be performed using standard software and because of the increased sample size the statistical power of the meta-analysis is increased whereas the procedure allows performing several diagnostics (publication bias, cumulative meta-analysis, sensitivity analysis). The method is evaluated on a dataset of 356 Single Nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) which were evaluated for their potential association with Respiratory Syncytial Virus Bronchiolitis (RSV) and subsequently is applied in a meta-analysis concerning the association of the 10-Repeat Allele of a VNTR Polymorphism in the 3’-UTR of Dopamine Transporter Gene with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), as well as in a genome-wide association study for Multiple Sclerosis. Implementation of the method is straightforward and in the Appendix, a Stata program is given for implementing the methods presented here.

Specificity determining sites (SDSs) in alignments of protein sequences are sites at which subfamilies of the aligned sequences have been under differential selective pressure. Identifying SDSs is important because they are key in understanding the functional specificity of each subfamily. Differential selection at an SDS will result in differences between subfamilies in the distribution of amino-acids at that site. However, statistical analysis of such differences is complicated by phylogenetic relationships within each subfamily, which profoundly influence these differences. We develop a non-parametric approach to evaluating purely statistical SDS evidence in a sequence alignment, taking account of phylogeny through a novel tree-respecting randomisation based on the principle of parsimony. Our approach does not exploit bioinformatic measures based on amino-acid properties or rates of evolution, as do other methods. Our intention is thereby to supplement and strengthen other methods of SDS prediction, not to compete with them. Our methodology is implemented in the R package called SDSparsimony, freely downloadable from http://www.maths.leeds.ac.uk/%7Ewally.gilks/SDSparsimonyPackage/Welcome.html.

Phylogenomic datasets often contain sequence alignments on different subsets of taxa for different genes. A major goal of phylogenetics is often to combine estimated gene trees from many loci into an overall estimate of a species tree. When data are missing for some combinations of genes and taxa, supertree methods can be used to combine gene trees on different subsets of taxa into an overall tree. However, studies of the performance of supertree methods when gene tree conflict is due to incomplete lineage sorting are needed to understand their statistical properties in this setting. We find that Matrix Representation with Parsimony (MRP), the most commonly used supertree method, can in many cases infer the species tree in spite of high levels of conflict in the input gene trees. However, for some species trees with short branches, MRP can be increasingly likely to return a tree other than the species tree as the number of loci increases. In some cases, deleting taxa at random or using estimated (rather than known) gene trees can either improve or hinder MRP for recovering the species tree. Although MRP is able to handle large amounts of conflict in the input gene trees, MRP is not statistically consistent for estimating species trees when gene trees arise under the multispecies coalescent model. However, triplet MRP is statistically consistent in this setting.

Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) is an important genetic property that populations should have whenever they are not observing adverse situations as complete lack of panmixia, excess of mutations, excess of selection pressure, etc. HWE for decades has been evaluated; both frequentist and Bayesian methods are in use today. While historically the HWE formula was developed to examine the transmission of alleles in a population from one generation to the next, use of HWE concepts has expanded in human diseases studies to detect genotyping error and disease susceptibility (association); Ryckman and Williams (2008). Most analyses focus on trying to answer the question of whether a population is in HWE. They do not try to quantify how far from the equilibrium the population is. In this paper, we propose the use of a simple disequilibrium coefficient to a locus with two alleles. Based on the posterior density of this disequilibrium coefficient, we show how one can conduct a Bayesian analysis to verify how far from HWE a population is. There are other coefficients introduced in the literature and the advantage of the one introduced in this paper is the fact that, just like the standard correlation coefficients, its range is bounded and it is symmetric around zero (equilibrium) when comparing the positive and the negative values. To test the hypothesis of equilibrium, we use a simple Bayesian significance test, the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST); see Pereira, Stern and Wechsler (2008) for a complete review. The disequilibrium coefficient proposed provides an easy and efficient way to make the analyses, especially if one uses Bayesian statistics. A routine in R programs (R Development Core Team, 2009) that implements the calculations is provided for the readers.

Gene expression over time can be viewed as a continuous process and therefore represented as a continuous curve or function. Functional data analysis (FDA) is a statistical methodology used to analyze functional data that has become increasingly popular in the analysis of time-course gene expression data. Several FDA techniques have been applied to gene expression profiles including functional regression analysis (to describe the relationship between expression profiles and other covariate(s)), functional discriminant analysis (to discriminate and classify groups of genes) and functional principal components analysis (for dimension reduction and clustering). This paper reviews the use of FDA and its associated methods to analyze time-course microarray gene expression data.

We propose a new statistical test for assessing differential gene expression using RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) data. Commonly used probability distributions, such as binomial or Poisson, cannot appropriately model the count variability in RNA-Seq data due to overdispersion. The small sample size that is typical in this type of data also prevents the uncritical use of tools derived from large-sample asymptotic theory. The test we propose is based on the NBP parameterization of the negative binomial distribution. It extends an exact test proposed by Robinson and Smyth (2007, 2008). In one version of Robinson and Smyth’s test, a constant dispersion parameter is used to model the count variability between biological replicates. We introduce an additional parameter to allow the dispersion parameter to depend on the mean. Our parametric method complements nonparametric regression approaches for modeling the dispersion parameter. We apply the test we propose to an Arabidopsis data set and a range of simulated data sets. The results show that the test is simple, powerful and reasonably robust against departures from model assumptions.

Inference of gene networks is an important step in understanding cellular dynamics. In this work, a novel algorithm is proposed for inferring gene networks from gene expression data using linear ordinary differential equations. Under the proposed method, a combination of known statistical tools including partial least squares (PLS), leave-one-out jackknifing, and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) are used for robust estimation of gene connectivity matrix. The proposed approach is tested and validated using a computer simulated gene network model and an experimental data on a nine gene network in Eschericia coli.

RNA sequencing technology is providing data of unprecedented throughput, resolution, and accuracy. Although there are many different computational tools for processing these data, there are a limited number of statistical methods for analyzing them, and even fewer that acknowledge the unique nature of individual gene transcription. We introduce a simple and powerful statistical approach, based on a two-stage Poisson model, for modeling RNA sequencing data and testing for biologically important changes in gene expression. The advantages of this approach are demonstrated through simulations and real data applications.

Basic statistical theory implies that genotypic class cardinalities play a strong role in determining power to detect QTL, but the classes do not contribute equal information to the model. For example, while it is generally accepted that homozygotes contribute more to the detection of additive effects, heterozygotes are necessary to detect dominance effects. The literature on QTL detection often mentions the importance of genotypic class sizes in passing (Belknap (1998); Belknap et al. (1996); Jin et al. (2004); Kliebenstein (2007); Kao (2006); Martinez et al. (2002)), but no rigorous study of their relative values appears to exist. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the relative contribution of the heterozygous class. Researchers can use these results in evaluating the tradeoff between gain in statistical power and the cost of developing populations with specified genotypic class sizes. In addition, we arrive at the surprising conclusion that a misspecified additive model often outperforms a full model that incorporates dominance. This result is significant because standard software packages normally use the full model by default.

Simultaneously performing many hypothesis tests is a problem commonly encountered in high-dimensional biology. In this setting, a large set of p-values is calculated from many related features measured simultaneously. Classical statistics provides a criterion for defining what a “correct” p-value is when performing a single hypothesis test. We show here that even when each p-value is marginally correct under this single hypothesis criterion, it may be the case that the joint behavior of the entire set of p-values is problematic. On the other hand, there are cases where each p-value is marginally incorrect, yet the joint distribution of the set of p-values is satisfactory. Here, we propose a criterion defining a well behaved set of simultaneously calculated p-values that provides precise control of common error rates and we introduce diagnostic procedures for assessing whether the criterion is satisfied with simulations. Multiple testing p-values that satisfy our new criterion avoid potentially large study specific errors, but also satisfy the usual assumptions for strong control of false discovery rates and family-wise error rates. We utilize the new criterion and proposed diagnostics to investigate two common issues in high-dimensional multiple testing for genomics: dependent multiple hypothesis tests and pooled versus test-specific null distributions.

Missing phenotype data can be a major hurdle to mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL). Though in many cases experiments may be designed to minimize the occurrence of missing data, it is often unavoidable in practice; thus, statistical methods to account for missing data are needed. In this paper we describe an approach for conjoining multiple imputation and QTL mapping. Methods are applied to map genes associated with increased breathing effort in mice after lung inflammation due to allergen challenge in developing lines of the Collaborative Cross, a new mouse genetics resource. Missing data poses a particular challenge in this study because the desired phenotype summary to be mapped is a function of incompletely observed dose-response curves. Comparison of the multiple imputation approach to two naive approaches for handling missing data suggest that these simpler methods may yield poor results: ignoring missing data through a complete case analysis may lead to incorrect conclusions, while using a last observation carried forward procedure, which does not account for uncertainty in the imputed values, may lead to anti-conservative inference. The proposed approach is widely applicable to other studies with missing phenotype data.

Canonical covariance analysis (CCA) has gained popularity as a method for the analysis of two sets of high-dimensional genomic data. However, it is often difficult to interpret the results because canonical vectors are linear combinations of all variables, and the coefficients are typically nonzero. Several sparse CCA methods have recently been proposed for reducing the number of nonzero coefficients, but these existing methods are not satisfactory because they still give too many nonzero coefficients. In this paper, we propose a new random-effect model approach for sparse CCA; the proposed algorithm can adapt arbitrary penalty functions to CCA without much computational demands. Through simulation studies, we compare various penalty functions in terms of the performance of correct model identification. We also develop an extension of sparse CCA to address more than two sets of variables on the same set of observations. We illustrate the method with an analysis of the NCI cancer dataset.

Array-based Comparative Genomic Hybridization (aCGH) is a microarray-based technology that assists in identification of DNA sequence copy number changes across the genome. Examination of differences in instability phenotype, or pattern of copy number alterations, between cancer subtypes can aid in classification of cancers and lead to better understanding of the underlying cytogenic mechanism. Instability phenotypes are composed of a variety of copy number alteration features including height or magnitude of copy number alteration level, frequency of transition between copy number states such as gain and loss, and total number of altered clones or probes. That is, instability phenotype is multivariate in nature. Current methods of instability phenotype assessment, however, are limited to univariate measures and are therefore limited in both sensitivity and interpretability. In this paper, a novel method of instability assessment is presented that is based on the Engler et al. (2006) pseudolikelhood approach for aCGH data analysis. Through use of a pseudolikelihood ratio test (PLRT), more sensitive assessment of instability phenotype differences between cancer subtypes is possible. Evaluation of the PLRT method is conducted through analysis of a meningioma data set and through simulation studies. Results are shown to be more accurate and more easily interpretable than current measures of instability assessment.

The Random Forests (RF) algorithm has become a commonly used machine learning algorithm for genetic association studies. It is well suited for genetic applications since it is both computationally efficient and models genetic causal mechanisms well. With its growing ubiquity, there has been inconsistent and less than optimal use of RF in the literature. The purpose of this review is to breakdown the theoretical and statistical basis of RF so that practitioners are able to apply it in their work. An emphasis is placed on showing how the various components contribute to bias and variance, as well as discussing variable importance measures. Applications specific to genetic studies are highlighted. To provide context, RF is compared to other commonly used machine learning algorithms.

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a class of algorithmic methods in Bayesian inference using statistical summaries and computer simulations. ABC has become popular in evolutionary genetics and in other branches of biology. However, model selection under ABC algorithms has been a subject of intense debate during the recent years. Here, we propose novel approaches to model selection based on posterior predictive distributions and approximations of the deviance. We argue that this framework can settle some contradictions between the computation of model probabilities and posterior predictive checks using ABC posterior distributions. A simulation study and an analysis of a resequencing data set of human DNA show that the deviance criteria lead to sensible results in a number of model choice problems of interest to population geneticists.

Variable selection is a difficult problem that is particularly challenging in the analysis of high-dimensional genomic data. Here, we introduce the CAR score, a novel and highly effective criterion for variable ranking in linear regression based on Mahalanobis-decorrelation of the explanatory variables. The CAR score provides a canonical ordering that encourages grouping of correlated predictors and down-weights antagonistic variables. It decomposes the proportion of variance explained and it is an intermediate between marginal correlation and the standardized regression coefficient. As a population quantity, any preferred inference scheme can be applied for its estimation. Using simulations, we demonstrate that variable selection by CAR scores is very effective and yields prediction errors and true and false positive rates that compare favorably with modern regression techniques such as elastic net and boosting. We illustrate our approach by analyzing data concerned with diabetes progression and with the effect of aging on gene expression in the human brain. The R package “care” implementing CAR score regression is available from CRAN.

Certain residues have no known function yet are co-conserved across distantly related protein families and diverse organisms, suggesting that they perform critical roles associated with as-yet-unidentified molecular properties and mechanisms. This raises the question of how to obtain additional clues regarding these mysterious biochemical phenomena with a view to formulating experimentally testable hypotheses. One approach is to access the implicit biochemical information encoded within the vast amount of genomic sequence data now becoming available. Here, a new Gibbs sampling strategy is formulated and implemented that can partition hundreds of thousands of sequences within a major protein class into multiple, functionally-divergent categories based on those pattern residues that best discriminate between categories. The sampler precisely defines the partition and pattern for each category by explicitly modeling unrelated, non-functional and related-yet-divergent proteins that would otherwise obscure the analysis. To aid biological interpretation, auxiliary routines can characterize pattern residues within available crystal structures and identify those structures most likely to shed light on the roles of pattern residues. This approach can be used to define and annotate automatically subgroup-specific conserved domain profiles based on statistically-rigorous empirical criteria rather than on the subjective and labor-intensive process of manual curation. Incorporating such profiles into domain database search sites (such as the NCBI BLAST site) will provide biologists with previously inaccessible molecular information useful for hypothesis generation and experimental design. Analyses of P-loop GTPases and of AAA+ ATPases illustrate the sampler’s ability to obtain such information.

Gene set analysis methods have become a widely used tool for including prior biological knowledge in the statistical analysis of gene expression data. Advantages of these methods include increased sensitivity, easier interpretation and more conformity in the results. However, gene set methods do not employ all the available information about gene relations. Genes are arranged in complex networks where the network distances contain detailed information about inter-gene dependencies. We propose a method that uses gene networks to smooth gene expression data with the aim of reducing the number of false positives and identify important subnetworks. Gene dependencies are extracted from the network topology and are used to smooth genewise test statistics. To find the optimal degree of smoothing, we propose using a criterion that considers the correlation between the network and the data. The network smoothing is shown to improve the ability to identify important genes in simulated data. Applied to a real data set, the smoothing accentuates parts of the network with a high density of differentially expressed genes.

In the past few years, several entropy-based tests have been proposed for testing either single SNP association or gene-gene interaction. These tests are mainly based on Shannon entropy and have higher statistical power when compared to standard χ2 tests. In this paper, we extend some of these tests using a more generalized entropy definition, Rényi entropy, where Shannon entropy is a special case of order 1. The order λ (>0) of Rényi entropy weights the events (genotype/haplotype) according to their probabilities (frequencies). Higher λ places more emphasis on higher probability events while smaller λ (close to 0) tends to assign weights more equally. Thus, by properly choosing the λ, one can potentially increase the power of the tests or the p-value level of significance. We conducted simulation as well as real data analyses to assess the impact of the order λ and the performance of these generalized tests. The results showed that for dominant model the order 2 test was more powerful and for multiplicative model the order 1 or 2 had similar power. The analyses indicate that the choice of λ depends on the underlying genetic model and Shannon entropy is not necessarily the most powerful entropy measure for constructing genetic association or interaction tests.

The lasso is one of the most commonly used methods for high-dimensional regression, but can be unstable and lacks satisfactory asymptotic properties for variable selection. We propose to use weighted lasso with integrated relevant external information on the covariates to guide the selection towards more stable results. Weighting the penalties with external information gives each regression coefficient a covariate specific amount of penalization and can improve upon standard methods that do not use such information by borrowing knowledge from the external material. The method is applied to two cancer data sets, with gene expressions as covariates. We find interesting gene signatures, which we are able to validate. We discuss various ideas on how the weights should be defined and illustrate how different types of investigations can utilize our method exploiting different sources of external data. Through simulations, we show that our method outperforms the lasso and the adaptive lasso when the external information is from relevant to partly relevant, in terms of both variable selection and prediction.

Genome-wide association studies hold great promise in identifying disease-susceptibility variants and understanding the genetic etiology of complex diseases. Microarray technology enables the genotyping of millions of single nucleotide polymorphisms. Many factors in microarray studies, such as probe selection, sample quality, and experimental process and batch, have substantial effect on the genotype calling accuracy, which is crucial for downstream analyses. Failure to account for the variability of these sources may lead to inaccurate genotype calls and false positive and false negative findings. In this study, we develop a SNP-specific genotype calling algorithm based on the probe intensity composite representation (PICR) model, while using a normal mixture model to account for the variability of batch effect on the genotype calls. We demonstrate our method with SNP array data in a few studies, including the HapMap project, the coronary heart disease and the UK Blood Service Control studies by the Wellcome Trust Case-Control Consortium, and a methylation profiling study. Our single array based approach outperforms PICR and is comparable to the best multi-array genotype calling methods.

In pharmacogenomic studies, biomedical researchers commonly analyze the association between genotype and biological response by using the Kruskal-Wallis test or one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) after logarithmic transformation of the obtained data. However, because these methods detect unexpected biological response patterns, the power for detecting the expected pattern is reduced. Previously, we proposed a combination of the maximum contrast method and the permuted modified maximum contrast method for unequal sample size in pharmacogenomic studies. However, we noted that the distribution of the permuted modified maximum contrast statistic depends on nuisance parameter σ2, which is the population variance. In this paper, we propose a modified maximum contrast method with a statistic that does not depend on the nuisance parameter. Furthermore, we compare the performance of these methods via simulation studies. The simulation results showed that the modified maximum contrast method gave the lowest false-positive rate; therefore, this method is powerful for detecting the true response patterns in some conditions. Further, it is faster and more accurate than the permuted modified maximum contrast method. On the basis of these results, we suggest a rule of thumb to select the appropriate method in a given situation.