Band 10, Heft 3 -

This paper analyses the economic challenges facing Egypt in the post-Mubarak period, demonstrating the ways in which economic policy choices over the 2000s have contributed to the economic and social outcomes witnessed in the run up to the 2011 uprisings. The article investigates three specific policy areas and demonstrates their role in reducing employment opportunities, eroding wages and facilitating the creation of an increasingly unequal economic and social structure in Egypt. The three policy areas addressed by the article are (i) the general misplaced fiscal focus on expenditure-reduction rather than revenue-enhancement and the lack of progressive revenue growth; (ii) the manipulation and use of subsidies in Egypt to appease the populous instead of fostering employment generation; (iii) the failure to adequately promote employment-intensive investment.

This paper studies the new monetary stance of the Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT) during the Great Recession. We note that characteristics of the post-1997 “Great Moderation” revealed interest rate smoothing as a valid policy option for the inflation targeting central banks. Utilizing econometric analysis on a general form of a Taylor Rule, we search for the relative weights of the objective function of the CBRT over Jan 2010–Dec 2013. We find that over the Great Recession, the CBRT’s focus on “interest smoothing” had been maintained; and yet the burden of adjustment fell disproportionately on the foreign exchange markets. Furthermore, weak credibility of the CBRT, lack of a simple policy rule, and noisy policy communications evidence that pre-requisites of the interest rate smoothing are not being fulfilled. Inevitable sharp policy corrections that follow smoothing periods proved insufficient against the voluminous global flows.

The gender equality target is still considered one of the most challenging goals for most Middle East and North African (MENA) Countries. Using panel least square with regional dummies (LSDV) for 22 MENA countries over the period 1990–2007, the study concludes that with less than 5 years for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to be concluded, a significant acceleration in economic growth is required for the MENA countries to achieve the gender goal if these countries depended solely on economic growth. As a policy implication, the increase in economic growth in the MENA countries needs to be complemented with other factors boosting the achievability of the gender equality such as the government spending on education, infrastructure, and encouragement of international trade. All three factors proved to have a statistical significant and important impact on closing the gender gap.

One objective of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) of the World Trade Organization is to achieve financial services liberalization in member countries. We assess the implications of such liberalization commitments in the banking sectors of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. After providing an overview of the GCC banking sector, we discuss the GATS provisions relevant to financial services. Liberalization commitments and exemptions of these countries under the agreement are also presented. Using the observation that spikes in oil prices are accompanied with expansion in credit availability, we develop a simple model to formally explore the consequences of opening up the banking sector. Our analysis considers the possible policy impact on the domestic banking industry as well as a non-tradable sector that is driven by local entrepreneurship. Our investigation suggests that while high oil prices facilitate credit availability, they also enable governments to more easily and better subsidize employment in the public sector. This more attractive outside option then serves as a deterrent to risk-taking entrepreneurs which could stunt the growth of the non-tradable sector. A liberalized banking sector could mitigate this outcome as well as other institutional inefficiencies in lending, but also brings with it the vulnerability to global financial crises.