Volume 6, Issue 2

This paper examines the extent of contagion and interdependence across the six Asian emerging countries stock markets (e.g., Bangladesh, China, India, Malaysia, the Philippine, and South Korea) and then try to quantify the extent of the Asian emerging market fluctuations which are described by intra-regional contagion effect. These markets experienced both fast growth and key upheaval during the sample period, and thus, provide potentially rich information on the nature of border market interactions. Using the daily stock market index data from January 2002 to December 2016 (breaking the 15 years data set into three sub periods; pre-crisis, crisis, and post crisis periods); particularly make attention to the global financial crisis of 2007∼2008. The return and volatility spillovers are modeled through the GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity), pairwise Granger causality tests, and the forecast error variance decomposition in a generalized VAR (vector auto regression) models. This paper shows that volatility and return spillovers behave very differently over time, during the pre-crisis, crisis, and post crisis periods. Importantly, Asian emerging stock markets interaction is less before the global financial crisis period. The return and volatility spillover indices touch their respective historical peaks during the global financial crisis 2007∼2008, however Bangladeshi market faces this condition in 2009∼2010.

High-frequency stock trend prediction using machine learners has raised substantial interest in literature. Nevertheless, there is no gold standard to select the inputs for the learners. This paper investigates the approach of adaptive input selection (AIS) for the trend prediction of high-frequency stock index price and compares it with the commonly used deterministic input setting (DIS) approach. The DIS approach is implemented through computation of technical indicator values on deterministic period parameters. The AIS approach selects the most suitable indicators and their parameters for the time-varying dataset using feature selection methods. Two state-of-the-art machine learners, support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN), are adopted as learning models. Accuracy and F-measure of SVM and ANN models with both the approaches are computed based on the high-frequency data of CSI 300 index. The results suggest that the AIS approach using t-statistics, information gain and ROC methods can achieve better prediction performance than the DIS approach. Also, the investment performance evaluation shows that the AIS approach with the same three feature selection methods provides significantly higher returns than the DIS approach.

As the pace of urbanization is accelerating, increasing amount of floodplain has been projected as the future cities. Subsequently, urban flooding is being studied by global emergency management exports due to its increasingly significant impact on us. Some existing research on flooding emergency management based on the case-based reasoning (CBR) method have made tremendous progress, but the urban flooding case with its stratified data characteristics is required a new methodology which is different from the ones applied to flash floods. So, based on the case-based reasoning (CBR) method, this paper proposed a CPIE-CBR model with four layers, classification filtration, punctiform similarity, interval similarity and entropy weight method, to calculate the case similarity among the urban flooding case with stratified data characteristics. Then we carry out the numerical simulation with the real data about China and conduct some comparison with original ways so that we observe the validity and efficiency of our model in the end.

Rapid expansion of big-box store in developing country caused typical archetypal change in market structure: Success to the Successful, because big-box stores armed with modernized infrastructure and management capability are absorbing the once customers of the traditional market like a black hole. Facing rapid change in market structure and surmounting pleas from traditional market merchants, government took an inevitable intervention with law regulating the big-box store’s business and improving traditional market’s competence building. Not so long, however, did government confront policy resistance from both sides: Still ongoing polarization of both side’s sales. This study articulates behavior over time of market structure with causal loop diagrams of which causalities are extracted from literatures. This study provides significant contribution to policy makers and traditional markets’ merchants in other developing countries like India and China, as well as Korea.

Motivated by the double autoregressive model with order p (DAR( p ) model), in this paper, we study the moving average model with an alternative GARCH error. The model is an extension from DAR( p ) model by letting the order p goes to infinity. The quasi maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters in the model is shown to be asymptotically normal, without any strong moment conditions. Simulation results confirm that our estimators perform well. We also apply our model to study a real data set and it has better fitting performance compared to DAR model for the considered data.

A dual-rate preview control strategy for a type of discrete-time system is proposed based on the theory of multirate control. First, by using the discrete lifting technique, the general dual-rate discrete-time system is converted into a single-rate augmented system. On this basis, the augmented error system is constructed by introducing a first-order difference operator and the previewable reference signal. Then the tracking problem is transformed into a regulator problem of the augmented error system. The optimal preview control law of the augmented error system is obtained by using standard linear quadratic optimal preview control theory, and then the optimal preview controller of the original system is derived. In addition, the necessary and sufficient conditions for the controller are given. Finally, simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.