Band 2, Heft 3

Extreme values are usually given special attention. Using a decomposition-based vector autoregressive (VAR) model, this paper investigates the additional information of extreme values for forecasting the crude oil price. Empirical studies performed on the WTI spot crude oil price over year 1986-2013 are positive: decomposition-based VAR model produces significant both in-sample and out-of-sample forecast. Different evaluation tests are used and the results unanimously report the dominance of decomposition-based VAR over both efficient market model and ARIMA model. These findings are important as they hint that forecasts can be improved if high-low extreme information is properly used. An even more interesting finding is that the predictability of the crude oil price is asymmetric: crude oil price is more predictable in recession than in expansion. This finding is of great significance as it means there is information friction in the oil market especially when the oil price is in recession.

This paper researches the pricing strategy and government intervention mechanism for green supply chain in monopoly market, while considering strategic customer behavior. According to optimization theory, it establishes the target functions of retailer and strategic customers and investigates the interactions between retailer and strategic customers in accordance with Stackelberg’s game theory, so as to confirm the optimal discount level for green products. In addition, it discusses the regulatory effect of government intervention, including the guiding price and fiscal subsides, on the sales of green products. The research shows that the retailer can make the profit maximization by adjusting the discount level; the governments can regulate the sales of products by implementing the guiding price and fiscal subsides to the retailer.

Fiscal behavior of local governments has great volatility in China, especially in the period of economic transition. This paper estimates fiscal behavior volatility by making regression analysis of panel data of 30 provinces from 1994 to 2011. Then we establish a dynamic panel model to study the direct and indirect impact of the fiscal behavior volatility on the urban-rural income disparity. Empirical results show that urban-rural income disparity has nonlinear relationship with economic growth and financial development and that fiscal behavior volatility expands the urban-rural income disparity directly and indirectly. The larger fiscal behavior volatility comes greater urban-rural income disparity. We also find that the urban-rural income disparity is further enlarged through dual economic structure. If one of the economic growth and financial development is fixed, the other one has an inverted U-shaped relationship with urban-rural income disparity.

In this paper, we study estimation of a partially specified spatial autoregressive model with heteroskedasticity error term. Under the assumption of exogenous regressors and exogenous spatial weighting matrix, we propose an instrumental variable estimation. Under some sufficient conditions, we show that the proposed estimator for the finite dimensional parameter is root- n consistent and asymptotically normally distributed and the proposed estimator for the unknown function is consistent and also asymptotically distributed though at a rate slower than root- n . Monte Carlo simulations verify our theory and the results suggest that the proposed method has some practical value.

The effects of monetary policy on the economy show different with respect to its direction, power and the different economic cycle. That is to say, there exists asymmetry in the role of monetary policy. It’s important to research this asymmetry for monetary policy making and keeping economy’s steady growth In this paper, we aim to study the asymmetry in the role of monetary policy with respect to the different economic cycle. First, monetary shock is estimated by using monetary gap and output gap is calculated via HP filter method. Second, based on the monetary gap and output gap, the asymmetric impacts of monetary gap are measured by STR model. The results show that the impacts of monetary shock on economy are asymmetrical significantly. The impact of monetary policy on economy in upturn stage is larger than its impact in downturn stage.

Supply chain management is becoming the core competitiveness in enterprise competition, which is an important way to increase the enterprise’s profitability. With the development of the Internet of Things, supply chain management is gradually achieved by information technologies. This paper studies an information-based real-time products management method in supply chain management system through Java language, XML and other information technologies. Firstly, we introduce the supply chain management, then using XML document and B/S structure to realize the electronic management for products during product circulation process. The experimental results show that this system is stable and practicable, and could efficiently collect the product flow information which could provide valuable information for the materials and manufacture enterprises.

In the interaction picture, a sufficient and necessary condition that guarantees the convergence of closed quantum control system is proposed in this paper. Theoretical derivation and the proof show that it is possible to achieve the convergence to the target state by constructing an observable operator in an energy function and selecting control Hamiltonians. Numerical simulation experiments on a four-level system verify the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.

Focus on the process of computer information system integration qualification review, the existing partial defects is analysis. With the index analysis and resolution, the 7 major categories of indicators separate into quantifiable index. Based on the compensability analysis between indexes, new evaluation method which different level should use weighted products or weighting plus is put forward. Finally, with actual data collection and calculation, a satisfied evaluation result is get. It is a new method for government, evaluation mechanism and integrated enterprise.

In this paper, we first investigate the solution of the two correlated units redundant system with two types of failure. By using the method of functional analysis, especially, the c 0 semigroup theory of bounded linear operators on Banach space, we prove the well-posedness and the existence of positive solution of the system. By analyzing the spectra distribution of the system operator, we prove that the dynamic solution of the system asymptotically converges to the nonnegative steady-state solution which is the eigenfunction corresponding to eigenvalue 0 of the system operator. Furthermore, we discuss the exponential stability of the system. Finally, we analyze the reliability the system with the help of our main results and present some reliability indices of the system at the end of the paper.