Volume 2, Issue 4

We present an extensive statistical analysis of the results of all sports competitions in five major sports leagues in England and the United States. We characterize the parity among teams by the variance in the winning fraction from season-end standings data and quantify the predictability of games by the frequency of upsets from game results data. We introduce a novel mathematical model in which the underdog team wins with a fixed upset probability. This model quantitatively relates the parity among teams with the predictability of the games, and it can be used to estimate the upset frequency from standings data.

The principal aim of the paper is to present an example of how statistical variable reduction techniques may be used as a method of summarising a large number of test results from a soccer youth development testing battery in a simple coherent manner. This procedure may facilitate a player’s understanding of the test results and help identify weaknesses in a player’s fitness profile. In addition, Tolerance Intervals for various fitness measurements were estimated which will serve as references for coaches when comparing the fitness levels of future players to those already at the club. The importance of using a Tolerance Interval rather than an interval estimate of a parameter when the emphasis is on providing a reference range is discussed.

This paper examines the factors that determine the rate of errors called in major league baseball, and changes in the error rate over time. We find that (1) the rate of errors depends on the quality of play and characteristics of the field, but that (2) these do not fully explain variations in the error rate. With regard to point 1, we find that the error rate is higher when the quality of fielding is suspect, i.e., the performance of an expansion team in its first year, or the fielding done by replacement players during World War II, and lower when playing conditions are better, e.g. on artificial turf and during night games. With regard to point 2, we find evidence that official scorers are biased toward the home team, but that the bias declined when the stakes involved increased, with the advent of arbitration and free agency.

We provide a response to Beech’s review of The Wages of Wins: Taking Measure of the Many Myths in Modern Sport in this journal. Specifically we are responding to three misinterpretations and/or misstatements in the book review. At the end of each section we explain the process in which we reach our conclusions and where we differ with the reviewer’s ascertations.

The passing premium puzzle is the existence of a balance between the number of passing and running plays, even though there is a greater expected return in passing plays. The puzzle is documented using both historical trends of aggregate numbers and play by play data from the 2005 NFL season.