Band 4, Heft 2

In the context of multiple emergencies occurring in an urban environment, it is important to perform a fair allocation and scheduling of emergency response units to each emergency, as human lives could be at risk. In this work, a multi-emergency management system based on a single step, non-cooperative, normal form game model, and a Nash equilibrium based optimization methodology is proposed. In the proposed system, each emergency event is represented as a player in the game, who is competing with other players for the allocation of resource units that are available in limited quantities within a given urban perimeter. The Nash equilibrium based methodology identifies a socially fair allocation of resources depending on various fairness criteria like the demand by each emergency event, and the criticality of the events. The fairness criterion is well modeled in the game theoretic setting, while the criticality of an event can be modeled as per the requirements of a specific emergency management system. Such a system will be useful in managing emergencies in small to medium urban settings. The proposed game theoretic methodology naturally models the emergency response and resource deployment problem in the framework of social fairness, which is pivotal in these scenarios. The Nash equilibrium solution is computed using the Terje Hansen's fixed-point algorithm. Experimental results are presented for various test cases and metrics are developed to establish the quantitative measure of fairness of the results. The proposed system can be used as a decision support tool for managing emergencies, or as a simulator for learning and training purposes.

There are possibly 87,525 local governments that may be eligible to participate in local FEMA-Approved Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plans and the Pre-Disaster Mitigation (PDM) program. These include special single purpose government entities that may not provide essential health and safety services of a governmental nature, whose eligibility is determined by the state. This study was limited to identifying the populations served by these local plans. As of mid-August 2005, 51 of the 58 state entities had local plans. This documentation review revealed there were only 1139 of the congressionally mandated local approved plans with 5793 participating jurisdictions representing only 37.44% of the nation's population. Ten state entities' local approved plans covered 69% or greater of the state's population and only five out of that ten were able to achieve of 88% or greater. The lower quartile's performance pre-Katrina and post-Katrina is examined. The low adoption rate, whether caused by multiple philosophies, misinterpretations or limited local capacity, capability, competence or support, must be determined by more in-depth research. However, it was noted that the Pre-Disaster Mitigation (PDM) program guidance was more focused on pre-disaster mitigation strategies and competitive cost-effective projects then all-hazards risk and vulnerability assessments. To determine if a local or state PDM project will be cost-effective and maximize the benefits to the Nation, these assessments must be completed first for all local counties and all hazards.

Emergency management is often evaluated and improved after the occurrence of a disaster, especially in the case of preparedness. This paper discusses the importance of logistics planning and operation as it relates to disaster preparedness. The selection of field logistics sites such as staging areas, prior to the occurrence of a natural or man-made disaster, is a crucial step in emergency planning and management. Selection can be aided and kept consistent by pre-identifying state and county-level guidelines for staging areas. This paper reviews state and county criteria for the pre-selection of staging areas and discusses supporting logistical operations in disaster management.

The highly lethal attacks against land transportation targets in Madrid and London have sparked considerable amount of debate in Singapore about the terrorist threat to the local land transportation infrastructure. How real is this threat and what can be done to counter it? This is the central question addressed in this paper.While transportation targets in general have always been a terrorist favorite, in recent years there has been an increased emphasis on attacking soft transportation targets such as mass transit. There are several distinct reasons for this development, including the increasing difficulty of successfully striking other targets, the ease of producing large number of casualties, the panic-spreading universality of the city bus or metro car, economic impact on the afflicted state by crippling workforce mobility and deterring foreign investment and tourism, symbolic value, and an overall high probability of success and a low level of risk. Indeed, since 1991 more than 42 percent of terrorist strikes worldwide were directed specifically against land transportation, producing the highest casualty rates of any type of terrorist attack.With regards to the threat to Singapore's transit system, analysis of Jemaah Islamiya's ideology and targeting patterns reveals an increasing preference for soft, Western, mass-casualty targets in Southeast Asia. But while Singapore's commuter transportation system fully encompasses all of these adjectives, the recently weakened Jemaah Islamiya currently possesses only very limited capability to strike this type of target with significant results. Still, other adjacent threats exist including a possible attack by a home-grown terror cell, attempted suicides by deranged individuals, or the disruption of service via a wave of hoaxes by pranksters or terrorist group sympathizers.Despite the relatively low level of threat, Singapore has made many preparations and preventive measures that other countries that have experienced surface transportation terrorism have identified as pillars of effective public transportation security. These essentially include prevention, effective response and timely mitigation, and psychological defence measures.

As cities continue to increase in size, population diversity, and complexity their vulnerability to future disasters will increase as well. This paper explores the variability in vulnerability to natural hazards among the 132 urban areas using three indices of vulnerability: social, built environment, and hazard impact. The paper then examines the relative levels of vulnerability compared to federal UASI funding. The paper demonstrates that vulnerability manifests itself as a place-based regional phenomenon, with the most vulnerable cities located in the eastern half of the U.S. The relative importance of the underlying correlates changes from city to city across the United States with social vulnerability assuming greater importance in the South and Southwest, and built environment vulnerability showing regional primacy as the driving indicator among Northeastern and Midwestern cities. Based on this empirical analysis, New Orleans was the most vulnerable urban area in the U.S. yet received only one percent of the preparedness resources awarded by the federal government.

Homeland security information bulletins from governmental, commercial, and non-governmental providers are an important source of threat information within local emergency management organizations. This article examines how email-based homeland security information bulletins influenced preparedness in one university's emergency management organization. A one-year field study of the university's emergency management meetings, supplemented by in-depth interviews, survey data, and textual analysis, was used to determine how participants made sense of and communicated about homeland security threats. Assumptions about communication obscure the influence of bureaucratic imperatives in shaping "enactment" of homeland security threats. Process changes may be needed in order to enhance the contributions of homeland security information bulletins to emergency preparedness.

The successful implementation of homeland security policy requires cooperation among all levels of government—federal, state, and local. The regional approach offers a powerful tool for encouraging greater intergovernmental coordination and improved homeland security readiness. The ability to coordinate preparedness and response activities across multiple jurisdictions is critical to the homeland security mission. In this research we evaluate the regional approach to homeland security coordination using survey data collected from 425 Florida municipal and county government officials and first responders. We identify the primary security concerns of local officials and evaluate the impact of unmet security needs across regions. We also provide analyses of the factors affecting the level of regional security concerns, improvement in intergovernmental cooperation, and ultimately, regional preparedness.

Terrorist organizations are often difficult for policy makers to understand, a circumstance that is exacerbated when there is little consensus amongst the community of experts. This research presents a controlled way to prioritize differing explanations about terrorist organizations. As a case study we examine the preferences of the organization Hamas when recruiting suicide attackers. Using two different data sets, one collected from past suicide attacker biographies, the other a survey of subject matter experts, we prioritized ten categories of theories of recruitment in the West Bank from 2001-2005.Based on our analysis, the four factors found to be most important are, in no order of importance: religious influences, individual frustrations, personal economic motivations and political/nationalistic motivations. In contrast, the six factors which are least important are: cultural motivations, personal revenge motivations, social network enablers, operational usefulness to the organization, small group dynamics and internal psychological disorders. To minimize Hamas's recruitment effectiveness, countermeasures which align with the important factors will be more effective than those that do not.

Book Review of Meeting the Challenge of 9/11: Blueprints for More Effective Government, by Thomas H. Stanton (2006).

Review of Emergency Management: Concepts and Strategies for Effective Programs By Lucien G. Canton, CEM. By taking a different perspective on local government emergency management programs, this book presents the vision for a very different model-–one that includes an independent emergency manager leading an enterprise-wide program focused on strategies that promote disaster resilient communities.

Precautionary Risk Management: Dealing with Catastrophic Loss Potentials in Business, the Community and Society by Mark Jablonowski takes the reader beyond the façade of pseudo-scientific assessments of hazard risk that cater to special interests and into the philosophical aspects of 'high-stakes' risk management. Jablonowski's approach provides guidance for making decisions based upon tough but honest choices between precaution and fatalism.Mark Jablonowski is a professional risk manager who has nearly 30 years of experience as insurance underwriter and insurance underwriting manager. He is founder and principal of Intuitive Risk (www.intuitiverisk.com). Jablonowski has published over 50 papers about risk assessment, risk management, uncertainty modeling, and the economics of risk. Some portions of this book have been previously published in The John Liner Review: The Quarterly Journal of Advanced Risk Management Strategies, Risk Management, The Journal of the Society of Chartered/Property Casualty Underwriters, and CPCU eJournal.

In the preface to this collection of eight essays, Daniel Benjamin observes that in the immediate aftermath of the September 11th terror attacks, the nations of the world, to a large extent, allied with the United States towards the principals of, and need for, a global war on terror. But as the processes of this war began to expose the absolutes of an us-verses-them posture in Washington, these nations ``...began to join together, building coalitions to balance against the world's only superpower. Restraining the American Gulliver, it appeared, had become the common end to many." (ix). Towards understanding the longer term effects of these shifting alliances over the preceding six years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies initiated a one-year study of the changes in ``competition and cooperation" between the United States and select nations: China, Georgia, Germany, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia.

Rapidly and positively identifying those responsible for carrying out a terrorist attack is essential for numerous reasons. Primarily, public demand to respond, whether diplomatically or militarily, will be intense, particularly in light of the devastating potential harm wrought by attacks using weapons of mass destruction. Quick identification of culprits and methods of operation may also be essential in preventing further assaults. Furthermore, recent history shows that terrorists who would carry out such an attack are less likely to identify themselves with the potential for immediate and accurate retribution. The need for a reliable, credible and internationally recognized system for post-strike attribution is essential as we continue to face WMD threats from terrorist adversaries. Terrorism is an end in itself, with the ultimate objective not receiving credit, but making headway against the enemy through mass casualties. Taking these factors into consideration, this essay advocates the establishment of a formal process and international standardization for post-strike attribution. Such a process will serve to bring key entities together prior to an event, establish protocols to facilitate attribution decisions, and serve as a terrorism deterrent.