Band 2, Heft 3

As with other endeavors, the promise of technology is no less bright for anti-terrorism, which is concerned with stopping terrorist acts before they occur. Based on the 20-20 hindsight of the 9-11 Commission, many believe a combination of technologies and data bases can allow law enforcement and intelligence investigators to identify potential terrorist plots, use a multitude of data bases that contain hidden patterns of information about transactions needed to execute plots, and then mount pre-emptive strikes to stop their plans. Six types of systems cited as major tools in terrorism prevention are critically examined here: (1) regional emergency response networks; (2) the FBI DCS1000; (3) Echelon, an electronic interception system; (4) terrorism watch lists, (5) the multi-state anti-terrorism information exchange (MATRIX); and (6) the Terrorist Information Program (TIP). The systems are conceptualized as three types. Scanners constantly look for information generally or for a specific investigation. Watchers seek to know the location of individuals because they are persons of interest. Synthesizers attempt to interpret data from disparate sources to draw inferences about criminal plots before such schemes can be implemented by the conspirators. Findings suggest that the synthesizers hold the highest promise for prediction and prevention but generate the most strident opposition.

The United States will increasingly face threats and remain vulnerable to acts of terrorism and other disasters despite the many physical protection measures currently in place. While physical protection can limit or discourage attacks, the unfortunate reality is that nothing is ever 100% effective. In an interdependent age, spending money solely on physical protection will not solve the vulnerability problem (Scaling & Morrison, 2003, Scalingi 2004, Brown, 2004).A new approach must be taken not only to physically protect critical infrastructure but to prevent and deter attacks. This more comprehensive approach must include vulnerability assessments, risk-based mitigation, response and recovery after a disaster, training at all levels, more exercises and research and development (Mussington, 2002, Scalingi, 2003, 2004, Mencer, 2003, Brown, 2004). This broadened approach should help limit the overall impact of a disaster as well as deter potential attackers.A comprehensive approach to emergency management, specifically critical infrastructure security, cannot be accomplished if the private sector is excluded from these efforts. Because 85% of the nation’s infrastructure is controlled by the private sector, the government’s new programs and policies must be fashioned to encourage their participation.The federal government must recognize that critical infrastructure security planning must be conducted on a regional level. Incentives and guidelines to help move this planning process forward may be needed to ensure that the right players are involved. Moreover, the successes of other regional collaborations must be reviewed to determine whether these examples could be appropriated to address homeland security issues. Until this happens, the nation will continue down the path where individual agencies and jurisdictions prepare and respond to disasters on their own terms.

Protecting against terrorist attacks requires making decisions in a world in which attack probabilities are largely unknown. The potential for very large losses encourages a conservative perspective, in particular toward decisions that are robust. But robustness, in the sense of assurance against extreme outcomes, ordinarily is not the only desideratum in uncertain environments. We adopt Yakov Ben-Haim’s (2001b) model of information gap decision making to investigate the problem of inspecting a number of similar targets when one of the targets may be attacked, but with unknown probability. We apply this to a problem of inspecting a sample of incoming shipping containers for a terrorist weapon. While it is always possible to lower the risk of a successful attack by inspecting more vessels, we show that robustness against the failure to guarantee a minimum level of expected utility might not be monotonic. Robustness modeling based on expected utility and incorporating inspection costs yields decision protocols that are a useful alternative to traditional risk analysis.

Homeland security requires protection of the essential infrastructure that provides and delivers goods and services that supply on-going needs and that maintain the economy. Protecting the workforce, senior managers, and essential personnel is essential, not only to preserve critical industries but to maintain business continuity to prevent severe and prolonged economic disruption. Most large employers have an under-utilized resource available for this purpose. This is the occupational health service, which already serves many compatible functions and houses personnel with many of the requisite skills. Occupational medicine specialists, occupational health nurses, and industrial hygienists have special training on chemical, biological, physical and psychological hazards in the workplace that translate readily to homeland security applications. Developing emergency management capacity within the occupational health service builds on its traditional role in disaster planning and derives a dual benefit from the investment. The leadership organizations in the three professions have taken the lead in developing the Occupational Health and Disaster Expert Network (OHDEN), an Information Sharing and Analysis Center (ISAC) -based network for this purpose.

The American Bar Association has assembled a DVD and course materials, Are You Ready? What Lawyers Need to Know About Emergency Preparedness and Disaster Recovery, to aid state and local government attorneys in preparing for a disaster and recovering in the wake of one. The DVD includes interviews and panel discussions with lawyers and policymakers; the course materials include, in part, articles, a checklist, and a sample incident action plan.

Walter Brasch, in America’s Unpatriotic Acts: The Federal Governments’ Violations of Constitutional and Civil Rights, takes a closer look at how changes resulting from the 9/11 terrorist attacks and ensuing legislation, such as the USA Patriot Act, have impacted the rights and personal freedoms of U.S. citizens. John Randolph Fuller provides an objective review of Brasch’s book noting its value to those working in the area of homeland security.

The Pan American Health Organization has developed a manual to aid emergency management officials in handling dead bodies resulting from massive fatalities. The manual covers both the practical tasks such as recovery, identification, transfer, and final disposition of bodies, as well as emotional and sociocultural needs of the survivors.

Kumar Ramakrishna and See Seng Tan’s book, After Bali: The Threat of Terrorism in Southeast Asia, looks at issues of terrorism in Southeast Asia from a distinctly Southeast Asian perspective. The editors have compiled a series of essays to address their central question of whether this region is a terrorist haven and to examine the causes, course, and impact of terrorism there.

Planning for the Unexpected: Land-Use Development and Risk, by Laurie Johnson, Laura Dwelley Samant, and Suzanne Frew, is a concise review of risk management fundamentals. The authors present the strategic principles of risk management and provide examples of how it can be better incorporated by local city planners.

Recent relevant research products that have appeared in other publications.