ABSTRACT Purpose Despite the global shutdown of universities and research laboratories in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant and unexpected increase in scientific production was observed during 2020 and especially in 2021 (Rousseau et al., 2023). A plausible explanation is that researchers took advantage of the lockdown period to write and develop pre-existing ideas. But what happened once that stockpile of ideas was exhausted? Design/methodology/approach This study aims to address that question by analyzing the scientific output of fourteen highly productive countries using data from three databases: WoS, Scopus, and OpenAlex. Findings Our analysis shows that, following the production peak in 2021, there was a general decline over the next two years (2022 and 2023) across most Western countries, including Japan and Brazil. However, this trend was not observed in China or India, which have maintained sustained growth since 2021. Russia, by contrast, has shown a continuous decline since 2021, likely related to its involvement in armed conflicts. Notably, this pattern of decline persists even when excluding the broad category of Life Sciences and Biomedicine . Research limitation The observed phenomenon cannot be fully explained. A broader understanding would require the wide distribution of a questionnaire among researchers and institutions. Practical implications This study provides insight into how the scientific system responded through its publication output to the temporary suspension of research institutions’ activities during the COVID-19 lockdown. Originality/value Our analysis contributes to understanding the unusual trends in research publications due to the pandemic’s influence. It can be seen as a discussion of a natural experiment in the science of science.
Contents
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Open AccessThe long shadow of COVID-19May 28, 2025
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October 16, 2025
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November 20, 2025
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Open AccessScholarly publishing in Ukraine (2005-2023): Mobility, productivity, and citation impactSeptember 17, 2025
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Open AccessMultimodal detection framework for financial fraud integrating LLMs and interpretable machine learningSeptember 1, 2025
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November 20, 2025
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Open AccessInfluencing factors and group differences in medical data sharing in clinical research scenariosSeptember 6, 2025
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Open AccessThe physics of journal self-citationJuly 1, 2025
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June 22, 2025