Volume 14, Issue 2

We exploit a dataset that includes the individual tax returns of all taxpayers in the top percentile of the income distribution in Germany to pin down the effective income taxation of households with very high incomes. Taking tax base erosion into account, we find that the top percentile of the income distribution pays an effective average tax rate of 30.5% and contributes more than a quarter of total income tax revenue. Within the top percentile, the effective average tax rate is first increasing, then decreasing, with income. Since the 1990s, effective average tax rates for the German super-rich have fallen by about a third, with major reductions occurring in the wake of the personal income tax reform of 2001-05. As a result, the concentration of net incomes at the very top of the distribution has strongly increased in Germany.

The present paper develops an overlapping generations general equilibrium model for Germany in order to study the impact of public policy on household labor supply and fertility decisions. Starting from a benchmark equilibrium which reflects the current German family policy regime we introduce various reforms of the tax and child benefit system and quantify the consequences for birth rates and female labor supply. Our simulations indicate three central results: First, higher transfers to families (either direct, in-kind or via family splitting) may increase birth rates significantly, but they may come at the cost of lower female employment. Second, the introduction of individual taxation (instead of joint taxation of couples) would increase female employment but might further reduce current birth rates in Germany. Third, it is possible to increase birth rates and female employment rates simultaneously if the government invests in child care facilities for children of all ages.

A simple model of decentralized graduation standards is presented. It is shown that a school whose students are disadvantaged on the labor market applies less demanding standards because such students have lower ability or less incentives to graduate. The model’s predictions are tested using Dutch school-level data. Since students in the Netherlands have to participate in both a central and a school specific examination, we can identify the grading policy of individual schools. We find that schools which harbor greater shares of disadvantaged students tend to set lower standards. This association is most pronounced in the track of secondary schooling that prepares for university.

Educational opportunities determine the intergenerational mobility of human capital and affect the distribution of earnings on the labour market. This paper aims at explaining cross-country differences in educational opportunities by features of schooling systems. The theoretical model predicts that a greater differentiation of the schooling system as indicated by streaming and a large share of private schools decreases educational opportunities while more instruction time increases educational opportunities. The empirical results that are based on a difference-in-differences estimation approach to control for country-specific effects support these hypotheses.

This article studies the relationship between risk attitudes and individual characteristics focusing on the intergenerational transmission of risk preferences. We use a dataset of a sample of Italyn students which allows us to build different measures of risk aversion based, respectively, on a survey asking students about their willingness to invest in a risky asset and about their preferences for job security and on the results of an entry test using explicit penalty points in the case of incorrect answers. In line with the findings highlighted by the existing literature, we find that women are more risk averse than men, more patient subjects are more risk averse, while high-ability students are less risk averse. As far as intergenerational transmission of preferences is concerned, it emerges that students whose fathers are entrepreneurs have a higher propensity to take risks, while students whose fathers are employed in the public sector are more risk averse. Only fathers matter with regards to their children’s risk attitudes. These results are robust to different measures of risk aversion and to different specifications of our model.

This study asks whether the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts for Germany has improved over time. We examine one-year-ahead forecasts of rates of real GDP growth and inflation for the years 1967-2010, by three major German forecasters and the OECD. We find that overall error levels are high but not much different from those of the U.S. and U.K. In the 1980s and 1990s accuracy improved somewhat, but has now returned to its 1970s level, indicating that it reflects the variance of growth and inflation. Benchmark comparisons with these predictions with ex post forecasts of a macroeconometric model indicate that accuracy can be improved, but it will be difficult to achieve.