Band 3, Heft 4

What is New Orleans like today? What will it take to return the city to some semblance of normalcy? Stunned by the events and revelations of governmental incompetence since Katrina, we review Katrina's aftermath and chime in on current policy debates about the city’s future. Our love for New Orleans may compromise our objectivity, but we find scholarly inspiration in three excellent articles in the last issue of The Forum.

During the past fifty years, presidents have had moments when the public disapproves of their performances. George W. Bush is one of them. Successful presidents have been able to reverse their low standing when they can change the subject. Such was the case for Harry Truman in 1948, Ronald Reagan in 1987, and Bill Clinton in 1995. Truman got back to the New Deal/Fair Deal agenda, Reagan acknowledged mistakes in the Iran-Contra scandal, and Clinton decided to get back to his middle class agenda. Unsuccessful presidents are those who found themselves in political trouble and could not change the subject. These include Truman in 1952 (Korea), Richard Nixon in 1974 (Watergate), Jimmy Carter in 1980 (Iranian hostages and the economy), and George H. W. Bush in 1992 (the economy). George W. Bush is likely to be one of the unsuccessful presidents. Iraq has brought this presidency to new lows in public approval, and it is unlikely that Bush will be able to shift the public focus away from Iraq.

Controversy characterizes the George W. Bush presidency. Amid the clamor, just what type of president has George W. Bush been in practice? This paper inventories the presidential literature to come to a tentative assessment of Bush’s “type.” This paper examines the historical and institutional context of his presidency, his response to institutional challenges he has confronted, his governing style and personality type. Bush's efforts at conservative “regime construction” have been hampered by the intense partisan polarization resulting from his conduct of office. His managerial emphasis and aggressive assertion of Constitutional prerogatives has increased the institutional power of the presidency. His relations with Congress resemble “party government” found in parliamentary systems. Temperamentally, Bush resembles several of his most colorful and consequential predecessors, including Andrew Jackson, Lyndon Johnson, Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan. It is not too early to label Bush's presidency a quite consequential one.

This article offers an historical overview of the last three presidential elections and uses those results to categorize the states into base states and leaning states, providing a glimpse at the current status of the parties' standing in the electoral college. While it acknowledges that the Republicans have a slight edge based on recent voting trends, it argues ultimately that the Democrats have a better chance of capitalizing on a variety of electoral opportunities to attain a political majority. Thus, it joins the ongoing debate about the validity of the John Judis-Ruy Teixeira thesis about the emerging Democratic majority. It does so by offering an extended analysis of key data from the 2004 exit poll results and a reflection on historical voting results to forecast which states offer the best targets for Democrats. It considers those possibilities against the background of electoral trends over the last quarter-century to suggest what the electoral map looks like heading into the next election cycle.

This essay explores the ethics of how the press covers presidential nomination campaigns. It considers the implications of a predictive model that demonstrates how the nomination process limits voters' choices. Nominees may be predicted with a high degree of success before voting begins. Horse-race press coverage of the pre-primary period dramatically characterizes the process as unstable and up for grabs. By doing so, the press paradoxically contributes to the stability and, therefore, is complicit in limiting voter choice. The essay argues for telling the story of the impact of policy and governance on citizens’ lives.

This article examines New York City's system of public financing of political campaigns after 15 years of operation. The author suggests that many of the objectives of reform: lower expenditures, increased competition, and higher voter turnout have not been realized.

Samuel Alito and a new breed of conservative jurists may be opening the door to a new version of activism, developing a theory that will provide constitutional justification that breaks down the separation of powers and enabling presidents to more easily legislate from the Oval Office.