Where the Votes Are: The Electoral Geography of the Coming Democratic Majority

Todd Estes

doi:10.2202/1540-8884.1085

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Where the Votes Are: The Electoral Geography of the Coming Democratic Majority

Todd Estes

Published/Copyright: January 18, 2006

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From the journal The Forum Volume 3 Issue 4

This article offers an historical overview of the last three presidential elections and uses those results to categorize the states into base states and leaning states, providing a glimpse at the current status of the parties' standing in the electoral college. While it acknowledges that the Republicans have a slight edge based on recent voting trends, it argues ultimately that the Democrats have a better chance of capitalizing on a variety of electoral opportunities to attain a political majority. Thus, it joins the ongoing debate about the validity of the John Judis-Ruy Teixeira thesis about the emerging Democratic majority. It does so by offering an extended analysis of key data from the 2004 exit poll results and a reflection on historical voting results to forecast which states offer the best targets for Democrats. It considers those possibilities against the background of electoral trends over the last quarter-century to suggest what the electoral map looks like heading into the next election cycle.

Keywords: elections; political parties

Published Online: 2006-1-18

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Articles in the same Issue

https://doi.org/10.2202/1540-8884.1085

Keywords for this article

elections; political parties