Band 2, Heft 3

Florida is once again a key battleground state, with nearly 850,000 more voters and two more Electoral College votes than in 2000—but no more chads since punch card ballots have been outlawed. There are ten “givens” about the sunshine state, such as the key role that independents will play, a higher younger voter turnout rate, more citizens voting absentee or early, intense GOTV efforts by both parties, an intensely competitive U.S. Senate race, a series of constitutional amendments intended to draw out infrequent voters, and lawsuits before and after the election. The biggest “uncertains” are: what will be the most important vote-decision issue(s); turnout rates and candidate preferences among African Americans, Hispanics, social conservatives, and women; and whether there will be a terrorist attack before Election Day.

Professor Robertson explains what makes Missouri a consistent bellwether state in presidential politics, and points to trends in the electorate that show why it will continue to be a microcosm of American politics. In describing recent state campaigns, he demonstrates how the deep urban-rural split in Missouri will endure far beyond the 2004 elections. Missouri Republicans have seized the advantage of a growing rural base and nurtured a rural-suburban alliance. While demographic and policy trends have weakened the Democrats, their ability to adapt has kept them competitive in statewide elections. Early returns in St. Louis County may indicate how Missouri will deliver its electoral votes.

Ohio’s diversity, the 2004 issue environment, and unique strategic factors give both parties good reasons to vigorously contest the state. The Buckeye state is the largest “red state” outside of the Sunbelt and one that would be especially difficult for the Republicans to replace. Gore’s unexpected strong finish in Ohio made Democrats regard the state as a prime target of opportunity. While Bush has often had a small lead among likely voters in the most sophisticated state-level polls, an infusion of new voters and the likelihood that Nader will not be on the ballot has added to Democratic prospects.

In 1960, approximately 80 percent of Catholic voters supported John F. Kennedy’s successful bid for the White House. But beginning in the 1968 presidential election, the Catholic vote shifted. Since 1972, it has consistently been a near mirror image of the popular vote. This shift was partially inspired by a series of Supreme Court decisions that disappointed traditional Catholic Democrats who in turn found Republican presidential candidates stressing “the social issue” more appealing. However, despite making eleven of the last thirteen appointments, Republican presidents have failed to construct a thoroughly conservative Supreme Court on social and cultural matters. In this essay, I consider how this failure will affect the candidacy of President George W. Bush and explore whether it will offer John F. Kerry—the first Catholic presidential nominee of a major party since John Kennedy—an opportunity to increase the Democratic Party’s share of the Catholic vote.

This article explains why the Framers (the authors of the U.S. Constitution of 1787) did not include a Bill of Rights. It challenges the conventional understanding that portrays the Framers as insensitive to individual rights, and argues that the historical record clearly shows that it was out of a concern for the legal concept known as “negative pregnant” that explains their actions. It also challenges the conservative interpretation of the Ninth Amendment given by Robert Bork. The Ninth Amendment was designed by Madison as a solution to the negative pregnant, but has been mostly ignored by the U.S. Supreme Court.

In this essay, I explore the question of how the government will likely respond to demands by Black activists to compensate the descendants of Black slaves for the historical injustice of slavery in the United States. Public opinion surveys reveal strong racial divisions on the question of whether the U.S. government should compensate or apologize to the descendants of Black slaves. Based on my efforts to gain an officer’s commission for my father’s military service in World War II as well as the recent case of discrimination against Black farmers by the Department of Agriculture, I argue that it is unlikely that the government will compensate Blacks monetarily for the historical injustice of slavery. However, I think that an apology by the U.S. government will ultimately be issued.

The 2002 Newark mayoral election represents a new trend in contemporary politics: a contest between an older African-American incumbent and member of the new generation of African-Americans politicians, who often hold different views and political attitudes than their older counterparts. In the end, the older incumbent won using his formidable political organization and against an inexperienced challenger. Mayor Sharpe James drew on a deep well of relationships—both local and national—that he established over decades as a Newark politician and effectively branded the insurgent Cory Booker as an outsider. The author concludes that younger African-American politicians, who tend to be more moderate than their older counterparts, have difficulty winning support among older African-American voters.