Volume 1, Issue 4

While acknowledging that the Democratic nomination race remains wide open, Professor Mayer gives an informed preview of likely outcomes in the contest of 2004. Drawing on past models and various studies of the nomination process, Mayer handicaps the field before the delegate selection process begins.

Professor Schier argues that the central aim of the Bush presidency is to complete the project of political reconstruction begun by Reagan, namely to dislodge liberal conceptions about the proper role of government and implant a conservative regime of military hawkishness, supply-side economics, and enhanced executive power at the expense of Congress. From a political perspective, the Bush team has done an admirable job reviving Reagan era initiatives by using political tactics that appeal to swing voters even as policies reflect the preferences of the conservative GOP base. Bush has successfully challenged “institutional thickening” that impedes genuine political change. Long term, however, Schier predicts a rift in the Republican Party over growing deficits, which threatens the presidential project to redefine government.

Professors Hopkins and Hopkins review the impact of 9/11 as a symbol in American politics. Following the terrorist attacks, "9/11" became a simple reference condensing wide-ranging events and emotions. Various interpretations emerged about what caused "9/11" and enabled the attacks. The authors claim that 9/11 allowed US leaders to pursue certain policy prescriptions that otherwise would have been blocked. Among four possible prescriptions for responding to the attacks, the Bush administration chose a "praetorian" policy of preventive war, with Iraq as its first example. In the authors’ view, by pursuing an expansive but highly militarized response, the US has overlooked the need to alleviate the conditions that made 9/11 possible. The authors recommend that the US, as part of a multilateral effort, allocate major resources to expanding "global public goods," including measures that strengthen barriers to proliferation, enhance fighting of global crime, and reduce incentives for terrorism, especially ones arising in failing states where distorted education and weak protection of human rights encourage organized terrorism.

Professor Lowenstein argues that the en banc 9th Circuit was correct to reinstate the Oct. 7 recall election. Blocking the election would have been an irresponsible intrusion into a state’s political system and an incorrect reading of Bush v. Gore. In addition, delaying the election would have created chaos for candidates and election officials, perhaps creating greater distortions in the electoral process than if the recall proceeded as required under the California Constitution.

Among the many lawsuits filed during the unprecedented California gubernatorial recall election, the one that garnered the most attention was the case challenging the use of punch card voting in six California counties. In that suit, plaintiffs argued that the election should be delayed because the allegedly higher error rates of punch card voting compared to other systems in California denied those voters in punch card counties their equal protection rights under the California constitution and also violated the Voting Rights Act. Professor Hasen argues that the original Ninth Circuit decision delaying the election until punch card voting could be eliminated was correct, and the later en banc decision allowing the election to go forward with the selective use of punch cards was unfortunate, though understandable given the closeness of the recall election. Hasen argues that under the Supreme Court's decision in Bush v. Gore, the selective use of punch card voting constitutes an equal protection violation. The en banc court did not reach the issue. Hasen concludes that the en banc decision does not preclude other plaintiffs from bringing similar challenges in the future, and that the window remains open for voting reform lawsuits until the Supreme Court interprets Bush v. Gore otherwise.

Professor McDonald analyzes voter participation in the 2003 California recall election. He places participation in the election into context, and finds it was not as high as predicted. He further finds intriguing evidence that punch card balloting leads to higher error rates, and that touch screen voting may reduce the degree of abstention for lower ballot position contests.

Elizabeth Capell, a political scientist and veteran of California politics, marks off a range of key executive decisions facing governor-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger, as well as the constitutional, structural and budgetary obstacles he confronts. While Schwarzenegger’s celebrity may help him in battles with political foes, she doubts he can count on mobilizing public opinion behind policies that tend to be too complicated and dry for sustained and widespread media coverage.