Volume 8, Issue 1

Climate change is now affecting agriculture and food production in every country of the world. Here the authors present the IMPACT model results on yield, production, and net trade of major crops in China, and on daily calorie availability as an overall indicator of food security under climate change scenarios and socio-economic pathways in 2050. The obtained results show a relatively optimistic outlook on yield, production and trade toward 2050. The outcomes of calorie availability suggest that China will be able to maintain a level of at least 3,000 kilocalories per day through 2010 to 2050. Overall, Chinese agriculture is relatively resilient to climate change. It is unlikely that Chinese food security by 2050 will be compromised in the context of climate change. The major challenge to food security, however, will rise from increasing demand coupled with regional disparities in adaptive capacity to climate change.

This paper develops a lobbying-by-firms model that draws on a more realistic characterization of the lobbying process; influence-seeking requires both money to ‘buy access’ and managerial time to ‘utilize access’. This, more realistically grounded, modeling approach furnishes theoretical support for why one encounters different numbers of lobbying firms of varying sizes in different industries, without casting the (unrealistic) lifeline of the ‘money-buyspolicies’ assumption or (unrealistically) casting out the role of money from the lobbying process. Theoretical legs are also furnished for the empirical finding of a negative and statistically significant (at the 1% level) relationship between industry concentration and “direct lobbying” by the industry. Additional insights emerge from the model regarding how a cap on the lobbying-contributions of firms results, in fact, in an expansion of the amount of access-time purchased by some firms, and how a decline in the world price of an industry’s good can generate greater inequality in access to politicians.

This paper provides a unique data set on local governance. This dataset measures government decisionmaking at the local level, i.e. the level of government closest to the people. By contrast, the existing literature has focused on decisionmaking at the “sub-national” level. The data set covers 182 countries, and it captures institutional dimensions of political, fiscal and administrative autonomy enjoyed by local governments. These dimensions are then aggregated to develop a “decentralization index” and are then adjusted for heterogeneity to develop a “government closeness index”.

The aim of this paper is to provide fresh empirical evidence on the mechanisms through which wage inequality affects worker satisfaction.Theoretically, the wages of others may affect workers’ utility for two main reasons: Workers may derive well-being from their social status (the comparison effect) and/or they may use others’ wages to help predict their own future wage (the information effect). The author tests both hypotheses. To do this, she models individual utility from pay as a function of a workers own wage and the earnings of all other workers within the same establishment, and she estimates the model using matched British employeremployee data. The author assumes incomplete information about others’ wages. She finds that the comparison effect matters. Interestingly, she also provides some evidence on a positive relation between well-being and inequality. Her results are robust to different specifications and different definitions of the reference group.

The article starts by examining the idea of conservation laws as applied to market economies. It formulates a measure of financial entropy and gives numerical simula-tions indicating that this tends to rise. We discuss an analogue for free energy released during this process. The concepts of real and symbolic appropriation are introduced as a means to analyse debt and taxation. We then examine the conflict between the conservation laws that apply to commodity exchange with the exponential growth implied by capital accumulation and how these have necessitated a sequence of evolutionary forms for money, and go on to present a simple stochastic model for the formation of rates of interest and a model for the time evolution of the rate of profit.

Most studies on Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) focus on the impact of their expansion through inward or outward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. However, divestments are quite common among the operations of MNEs. In order to derive their effects, we build a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that includes two non-standard characteristics: the presence of MNEs and unemployment. The model is applied to the Spanish economy, where FDI inflows have surpassed divestments at the aggregate level in the period 2005-2009, although divestments have been sizeable in ten sectors. We analyse two different scenarios: 1) divestments that involve the closure of plants of foreign affiliates and 2) divestments where national firms buy the plant of foreign affiliates. The model allows estimating the overall impact of the divestments occurring simultaneously in ten sectors and in particular sectors. Results not only show that national acquisitions are less harmful than closures, but quantify those effects, and provide information on the role of the divesting sector. Some adjustment costs arise in all scenarios.

This paper evaluates the effects for the Spanish case of allowing greater flexibility regarding the weekly hours worked on the working week, employment and productivity. A baseline model economy is calibrated to reproduce the cross-sectional distribution of workweeks across plants, as well as certain features of the Spanish economy. The author compares the steadystate status quo, where a forty-hour workweek is imposed and no flexibility is allowed, and the steady-state of economies with a higher degree of flexibility in weekly hours. The 2012 reform is found to preserve employment and generate a 1.72% increase in productivity. In the work-sharing scenario, the increase in employment (1.86%) comes at the expense of a lower increase in productivity (1.31%). Finally, the full flexibility scenario preserves employment and generates a substantial increase in productivity (2.6%).

This paper investigates the housing and mortgage markets by means of an agent-based macroeconomic model of a credit network economy. A set of computational experiments have been carried out in order to explore the effects of different households’ creditworthiness conditions required by banks in order to grant a mortgage. Results show that easier access to credit inflates housing prices, triggering a short run output expansion. However, the artificial economy becomes more unstable and prone to recessions. With stricter conditions the economy is more stable and does not fall into serious recessions, although a too severe regulation can slow down economic growth.

In this paper, the authors investigate the determinants of weight for leisure in preferences. First, using a dynamic general equilibrium model, they back out the weight for leisure for an unbalanced panel of 52 countries over the period from 1950 to 2009. Then, the authors perform several panel data regressions using the backed-out values of the preference for leisure as the dependent variable. Estimation results imply that trade openness, GDP per-capita and average temperature positively affect the weight for leisure in preferences in a robust manner. They also find some evidence about the effect of unionization and unemployment.

An evolutionary model of the bank size distribution is presented based on the exchange and creation of deposit money. In agreement with empirical results the derived size distribution is lognormal with a power law tail. The theory is based on the idea that the size distribution is the result of the competition between banks for permanent deposit money. The exchange of deposits causes a preferential growth of banks with a fitness that is determined by the competitive advantage to attract permanent deposits. While growth rate fluctuations are responsible for the lognormal part of the size distribution, treating the mean growth rate of banks as small, large banks benefit from economies of scale generating the Pareto tail.

In this paper, we attempt to investigate the importance of certain external factors on the investment decisions made by Polish companies. With the use of data from the tailor-made Survey on Receivables, we (1) examine factors influencing investment decisions of companies in Poland; (2) assess the relation between branch, company size and investment factors; (3) evaluate the importance of the investment factors; and (4) determine the relative influence of these factors on the company-level investment reductions. The results show that first, although the problem of payment delays is the most important single issue determining the investment decisions of Polish companies, its importance decreases when analysed simultaneously with other issues. Second, among the indicators selected for an assessment of investment decisions, two driving forces determine the investment decisions of Polish companies - namely, macroeconomic factors and law-related factors, with the relative importance of the former lower than the latter. Third, there is a positive association between the importance of each of the two factors and the actual investment reductions, implying that among companies facing higher investment reductions, the importance of macroeconomic and law-related factors is higher.

In this paper, the author analyzes the behavior of local governments in capital taxation when the financial choices in terms of the quality of public goods are made done by a central planner. More specifically, he asks the question of whether a local government has an interest in taxing the mobile factor in addition to the tax on representative households. Through a comparison of social welfare given the strategies chosen by local governments, the author shows that whatever the quality and cost of public goods, a local government always has an interest in taxing the mobile factor. This leads to a Nash equilibrium in the dominant strategy in their model.

As consumers’ demand for organic products grows, selling organic products potentially opens up profitable market participation options for farmers in developing countries. This paper studies two aspects of profitability for the producers. It uses hedonic demand theory and empirical analysis to examine the relation between conventional and organic markets using the strongly growing pineapple market as an example. The analysis confirms a nonlinear dependence of the organic market on the conventional one and a non-declining premium. The author concludes that there is a larger potential of the organic market and hence the number of farmers in developing countries who can potentially benefit from growing organic products.

In order to understand the sources of profits or monetary profits of capitalists and firms, the author examines the phrase of Marx: ‘Die Gesamtklasse der Kapitalisten kann nichts aus der Zirkulation herausziehen, was nicht vorher hineingeworfen war.’ (The class of capitalists cannot extract from the circulation what has not previously been thrown in.) Steve Keen studied the monetary paradox and contrary to circuitists he came to the conclusion that capitalists can make a monetary profit with the possibility to earn enough to repay their debt, with positive balances for all actors. The author demonstrates that Keen made a fundamental mistake and is using the Stock Flow Consistency Principle in an inconsistent way by combining it with behavioral equations in a dynamic model. The solution presented here shows not only problems with the numbers but with the method. This solution resolves a dispute between Keen and circuitists and implies that, in a Wicksellian pure credit economy, it remains impossible for all actors to gain a monetary profit.

The authors consider a symmetric model composed of two countries and a firm in each country. Firms produce the same good by means of a polluting technology which uses fossil energy. However, these firms can adopt clean technology which uses renewable energy, having lower costs. Interestingly, opening markets to international competition increases the per-unit emission-tax and decreases the per-unit production subsidy. The socially optimal adoption date under a common market better internalizes transboundary pollution than that under autarky. In autarky (resp. a common market), firms adopt the clean technology earlier (resp. later) than what is socially optimal and, therefore, regulators induce clean technology adoption at the socially optimal adoption date by firms postponing (resp. speeding up) adoption subsidies. Opening markets to international trade speeds up socially optimal adoption dates and reduces global flow of pollution.

Researchers seldom find evidence of I(2) in exchange rates, prices, and other macroeconomics time series when they test the order of integration using univariate Dickey-Fuller tests. In contrast, when using the multivariate ML trace test they frequently find double unit roots in the data. The paper demonstrates by simulations that this often happens when the signal-tonoise ratio is small.

This paper analyses the profitability of horizontal mergers in a Stackelberg model and their impact on welfare when there is uncertainty about the marginal costs of the newly merged firms. The authors consider that the merging firms decide their production strategy knowing the actual value of the production cost, while outsiders are a priori uncertain about the exact amount of cost efficiency/inefficiency that will result from the merger. Nevertheless, the key element of the model is that the merged entity can signal its own cost to some rivals (outsiderfollowers) when it behaves as a leader; while all outsiders remain uninformed when it behaves as a follower. They show that when there is role redistribution, the merging firms always have incentives to merge, irrespective of cost uncertainty, while a merger without role redistribution is ex ante profitable if and only if uncertainty is sufficiently great. As regards the social desirability of mergers, it is found that a merger between leaders always enhances welfare if participants have incentives to merge, such that private and collective interests coincide. Nevertheless, a merger with role redistribution leads to conflict between private and collective interests.

A traditional way of thinking about the exchange rate (XR) regime and capital account openness has been framed in terms of the ‘impossible trinity’ or ‘trilemma’, in which policymakers can only have 2 of 3 possible outcomes: open capital markets, monetary independence and pegged XRs. This paper is an extension of Escude (A DSGE Model for a SOE with Systematic Interest and Foreign Exchange Policies in Which Policymakers Exploit the Risk Premium for Stabilization Purposes, 2013), which focused on interest rate and XR policies, since it introduces the third vertex of the ‘trinity’ in the form of taxes on private foreign debt. These affect the risk-adjusted uncovered interest parity equation and hence influence the SOE’s international financial flows. A useful way to illustrate the range of policy alternatives is to associate them with the faces of a triangle. Each of 3 possible government intervention policies taken individually (in the domestic currency bond market, in the FX market, and in the foreign currency bonds market) corresponds to one of the vertices of the triangle, each of the 3 possible pairs of intervention policies corresponds to one of its 3 edges, and the 3 simultaneous intervention policies taken jointly correspond to its interior. This paper shows that this interior, or ‘possible trinity’ is quite generally not only possible but optimal, since the CB obtains a lower loss when it implements a policy with all three interventions.

The article examines causal relationships between sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) prices for the BRICS and most important EU economies (Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Spain) during the European debt crisis. The cross-correlation function (CCF) approach that distinguishes between causality-in-mean and causality-in-variance and the Breitung– Candelon causality test in the frequency domain are used in the research. Both tests reveal limited dependence of the BRICS CDS (especially, in the case of Brazil, China and South Africa) on the EU CDS prices. Thus, the paper underscores the signs of decoupling in the sovereign CDS market and also supports the view that the European debt crisis has so far had a limited non-EU impact in this market.

An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for a central bank to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model. A particular model is used as an illustration.

The paper offers a rigorous analysis of Milton Friedman’s parable of the ‘helicopter’ drop of money – a temporary fiscal stimulus funded through an increase in the stock of fiat base money that is never completely reversed in present discounted value (PDV) terms. A monetized fiscal stimulus is more expansionary than a debt-financed one because a monetized expansion of the Central Bank balance sheet is profitable: it relaxes the intertemporal budget constraint of the State – it creates fiscal space. It is up to the fiscal authority to make appropriate use of this fiscal space. Four conditions must be satisfied for a helicopter money drop to boost aggregate demand. First, it must not be reversed fully in PDV terms. Second, there must be benefits from holding fiat base money other than its pecuniary rate of return: that is, the interest rate on any additional base money issued is below the rate of return on the Central Bank’s assets. Third, fiat base money is irredeemable – an asset to the holder but not a liability to the issuer. Fourth, the price of money is positive. Given these conditions, there always exists – even in a permanent liquidity trap – a combination of monetary and fiscal policy actions that boosts private and/or public demand demand) – in principle without limit. Deflation, ‘lowflation’ and secular stagnation are therefore policy choices. Other conclusions are: (1) the increase in the monetary base need not be permanent for helicopter money to be effective; (2) Treasury debt cancellation by the Central Bank or the purchase by the Central Bank of perpetuities (with zero, negative or positive coupons) rather than finite maturity debt are fundamentally irrelevant policy actions. At most they have signaling value; (3) dropping perishable helicopter money will make it more effective if households are liquidity-constrained.

A fiscal rule imposed when the budget is not transparent yields more creative accounting to circumvent it and less fiscal adjustment, generating hidden deficits/debts in public sector. This study focuses on creative accounting practices of governments and adds to the literature by measuring hidden debts of the Turkish public sector ranging from the period 1989 to 2010. The author shows that the IMF has been misinformed, indeed has been misled by the Turkish authorities regarding the magnitude of public debt stock in the late 90’s. The lacking information deteriorated the IMF’s forecasts, which might be one of the main reasons for the failure of the IMF’s planned fiscal consolidation at the outset of 2000–2001 crisis. The author’s methodology can easily be adapted to any other country in order to identify the different margins on which governments can cheat and manipulate the Government Finance Statistics.

Bilateral trade and capital flows have increased substantially between the United States and China yielding economic gains to both countries. However, these beneficial bilateral relations also bring about global environmental consequences including greenhouse gas emissions. We develop a footloose capital model of international trade between the North (United States) and the South (China) in the presence of a global pollution externality. Each country’s share of global pollution depends on its share of world capital. We show that, if the disutility of pollution in the United States is high, there will be pressure on the US to raise environmental regulations on industry. Capital will move to China. Because the increased pollution in China has global effects, the US may not benefit from the environmental restrictions and a joint regulation of pollution by both parties may be a preferred outcome. We also show that the implementation of differential control policies by the parties may also be optimal.

In 2011, price peaks in retail gasoline prices caused public outrage and attracted the attention of German regulatory agencies. After having examined the market, competition authorities concluded that tacit collusion existed but could not easily be prosecuted under given competition law. In several other countries, various types of regulatory schemes are implemented to tackle tacit collusive behavior, e.g., there are price ceilings established in Luxembourg or per day limits of price increases given in Austria. However, research has found that none of them has led to satisfactory results. Hence, the following paper proposes a different regulatory approach, i.e., the implementation of corrective taxes. Results show that a specially tailored tax on price successfully manages to render collusion an unprofitable business by collecting marginal profits and that the inherent vice of the gasoline retail market, i.e., the transparency that enables tacit—and therefore non-prosecutable—collusion, could be turned into a regulatory virtue as it becomes a powerful means to help successfully tackle imperfect competition and to bring about a more efficient market outcome.

This study derives pure strategy Bertrand equilibria in a duopoly in which two firms produce a homogeneous good with convex cost functions and seek to maximize the weighted sum of their absolute and relative profits. The study shows that there exists a range of equilibrium prices in duopolistic equilibria. This range of equilibrium prices is narrower and lower than the range of equilibrium prices in duopolistic equilibria under pure absolute profit maximization. Moreover, the larger the weight on the relative profit, the narrower and lower the range of equilibrium prices. In this sense, relative profit maximization is more aggressive than absolute profit maximization.

Using four waves of the European Social Survey (179,273 individuals from 29 countries) the authors analyze the association of reduction of income inequality by governmental taxes and transfers (redistribution) with subjective well-being. Their results provide evidence that people in Europe are negatively affected by income inequality, whereas reduction of inequality has a positive effect on well-being. Since the authors simultaneously estimate the effects of income inequality and its reduction, their results might indicate that not only the outcome (inequality), but also the procedure (redistribution) that leads to the outcome influences subjective wellbeing. Their results also show that the positive effect of redistribution is stronger for less affluent members of the society and left-wing oriented individuals. While post-government inequality seems to have no significant effect in Western Europe, its impact is negative and highly significant in Eastern Europe.

The celebrated Taylor rule provides a simple formula that aims to capture how the central bank interest rate is adjusted as a linear function of inflation and output gap. However, the rule does not take explicitly into account the zero lower bound on the interest rate. Prior studies on interest rate selection subject to the zero lower bound have not produced derivations of explicit formulas. In this work, Taylor-like rules for central bank interest rates bounded below by zero are derived rigorously using a multi-parametric model predictive control framework. This framework is used to derive rules with or without inertia. The proposed approach is illustrated through simulations. Application of the approach to US economy data demonstrates its relevance and provides insight into the objectives underlying central bank interest rate decisions. A number of issues for future study are proposed.

Using copula methods and simulation-based inference, the authors investigate the association between the performance of a stock index formed by European financial institutions and a basket of CDS contracts of the same sector. Their analysis focuses on (i) assessing the dependence structure of the markets when extreme events occur, and (ii) checking the validity of the conclusion by Merton (On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates, 1974) and other similar structural models that there is an intensification of the relationship between stock prices and credit spreads after large negative shocks in the value of firms’ assets. The authors show that there is a large tail dependence between the two portfolios. However, the dependence structure seems to be similar with respect to positive and negative innovations in the indexes. Their findings suggest that credit models’ implications do not apply to financial firms, likely because the implicit subsidies from governments to financial institutions are distorting the dependency structure.

The Nordic countries are known for their success in combining an extensive welfare state with high labor force participation. This is explained by the origins and organization of their welfare states, which can be traced to a set of values and beliefs that emphasize the right of women to participate in the labor market. These values are shared by individuals born in other European countries of Nordic parents and may have origins in the Nordic countries’ Lutheran heritage.

The first step in solving the problem of corruption lies in diagnosing its root causes and determining the underlying factors. One of the most important facilitators of corrupt transactions is intermediaries who make corrupt dealings less risky, thereby increasing corruption. Even worse, there are spurious intermediaries who obtain bribes in connection with public services by pretending to have power over the issue. This deception may be carried out even if the officer providing the public service in question is honest. The simple game theoretical model formulated in this article tries to capture the mechanisms behind such deception. From the solutions of the model, certain policy recommendations to prevent such a process from occurring shall be provided.

In the presence of selection bias the traditional estimators for pseudo panel data models are inconsistent. This paper discusses a method to achieve consistency in static linear pseudo panels in the presence of selection bias and a testing procedure for sample selection bias. The authors’ approach uses a bias correction term proportional to the inverse Mills ratio with argument equal to the “normit” of a consistent estimation of the conditional probability of being observed given cohort membership. Monte Carlo analysis shows the test does not reject the null for fixed T at a 5% significance level in finite samples. As a “side effect” the authors utilize the enlarged pseudo panel to provide a GMM consistent estimation of the pseudo panel parameters under rejection of the null and apply the procedure to estimate the rate of return to education in Colombia.

This paper discusses the underpinnings of the financial crisis of the last decade in posttransition countries. It explores the endogenous reasons of this crisis, and in particular a possible link between delayed and unequal growth of household incomes on the one hand and the instability of the growth and depth of recession after the financial crisis on the other. It indicates possible factors underpinning the rapidly growing indebtedness of households, enabling faster, but unsustainable growth in consumption. Furthermore, it claims also that the artificially boosted growth of consumption and a favourable proportion between wages and profits could attract investment (also FDI), possibly searching for short-term gains. It underlines that while the inflow of financial funds was the major reason for unstable growth in this region, endogenous factors also contributed.

In this paper, the effect of the social network on macroeconomic stability is examined using an agent-based, network-based DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model. While the authors’ primitive (first-stage) examination has the network generation mechanism as its main focus, their more in-depth second-stage analysis is based on a few main characteristics of network topologies, such as the degree, clustering coefficient, length, and centrality. Based on their econometric analysis of the simulation results, the authors find that the betweenness centrality contributes to the GDP instability and average path length contributes to the inflation instability. These results are robust under two augmentations, one taking into account nonlinearity and one taking into account the shape of the degree distribution as an additional characteristic. Through these augmentations, the authors find that the effect of network topologies on economic stability can be more intriguing than their baseline model may suggest: in addition to the existence of non-linear or combined effects of network characteristics, the shape of the degree distribution is also found to be significant.

The question how the real and the financial side of a capitalist economy relate to each other has been a frequently recurring topic in the history of economic thought. Our paper addresses this question from the viewpoint that capital ultimately seeks returns from its perpetual reallocation and essentially faces two choices: it can either be “entrepreneurially” allocated to real economic activity, or it can be “financially” invested in legal claims against such activity. Adopting such a perspective, we study here how real and financial returns relate to each other over the past fifteen years, both within and across countries, by considering more than 30,000 publicly traded firms in more than forty countries that stand for 70% of the global population and about 90% of world income. We compare the average rates of return to both types of investment and their respective volatilities. While average returns, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, turn out to be roughly equal across the two domains, the volatility of financial returns exceeds ‘real volatility’ by an order of magnitude. From a systemic point of view, these findings raise the question why capital would seek out financial investments in the first place.

Over-borrowing and financial stress has recently become an important issue in macroeconomic and policy discussions in the US as well as in the EU. In this paper the authors study two regimes of financial stress. In a regime of high financial stress, stress shocks can have large and persistent impacts on the real side of the economy whereas in regimes of low stress, shocks can easily dissipate having no lasting effects. In order to study the macroeconomic dynamics, with alternative paths resulting from financial stress shocks, the authors introduce a macromodel with a finance-macro link which uses a multi-period decision framework of economic agents. The agents can, in a finite horizon context, borrow and accumulate assets where however the above two scenarios may occur. The model is solved through nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC). Empirically the authors use a multi-regime VAR (MRVAR) to study the impact of financial stress shocks on the macroeconomy in a large number of countries.

Much recent research in economics focuses on exploring behavioral anomalies, i.e., systematic deviations from the assumptions of the rationally self-interested model of man. Laboratory studies are used to identify seeming inconsistencies with micro-economic theory on the level of individuals. Since economics is a social science, this article proposes that the next crucial step consists in shifting the focus to the macro-level. It examines the process through which behavioral anomalies are aggregated to a societal outcome. Since individuals are reactive when they interact with others and face institutional constraints, the aggregation process may lead to different outcomes than what has been observed in individual-level studies: the respective anomalies may disappear, or they may become stronger on the macro-level. The discussion demonstrates that there are a great number of aspects to be analyzed. The paper presents fragments of what could become a more extensive field of research.

This paper reviews some of the economic experimental evidence on conformism. There is nothing to match the early psychology experiments where subjects were often swayed by the behaviour of others to an extraordinary degree, but there is plenty of evidence of conformism. This seems built-in to our sociality either because we have preferences for conversation or status which are activated by the knowledge of what others do, or because other people face relevantly similar decisions to our own and so that their behaviour signals something useful to us about the uncertain world. These social influences can cause mischief. The more worrying cases, however, are those where individual preferences themselves change through interaction with others: the strongest experimental evidence for this is with respect to individual social preferences, particularly in a context where individuals belong to different groups.

Scitovsky is known as a forerunner of behavioural economics simply because he drew heavily on psychology and claimed that people’s choices may be ‘joyless’ (Scitovsky, The joyless economy, 1976). However, a careful reformulation of his analysis shows that he anticipated a number of insights (also with respect to Kahneman’s ‘two-systems of thought’) which suggest new lines of inquiry from an original and different perspective. These insights of Scitovsky regard the following aspects: Uncertainty as a condition where the outcomes of choosing a particular option (novelty) is partially unknown; the case of individual ‘consumption skill’ (inclusive of emotions) that finds this uncertainty desirable when it is challenging; the case of increasing such skill so as to change preferences and make choices more efficient; the case of failing to increase such skill so as to make addictive harmful products an alternative and more tempting option.

This paper discusses three approaches in economics which take a position on the definition of well-being and which use insights from psychology to support their positions: Scitovsky’s Joyless Economy, happiness economics, and the constitutional approach to happiness in economics. The paper shows first that the definition of well-being by each approach, which is a normative step, is revealed by the choice of a psychological theory or method rather than resulting from the application of a theory or method. Secondly, this paper demonstrates that personal judgement by the authors is often needed in the positive realm, in order to interpret psychological results and to then translate them into practical recommendations. Both of these issues have implications for those theories that define well-being as something other than the fulfillment of individual preferences whatever their content, and which therefore yield a potential justification for paternalism. This paper argues that the potential paternalistic implications of these approaches are not based on positive science only, but rely on normative choice and personal judgement.

This paper extends choice theory by allowing for the interaction between cognitive costs and imitative dynamics. The authors experimentally investigate the role of imitation when participants face a task which is costly in cognitive terms. In order to disentangle different choice dynamics, they devise a laboratory experiment with a novel experimental task in which they model the choice of different alternatives through high or low cognitive costs and feedback information provided to subjects. Their results provide evidence for imitative behavior driven by under-confidence about own skills and by the beliefs regarding others’ performance. They also find a temporal pattern in the distribution of choices, both in the highcost and low-cost cognitive conditions, that may represent another cognitive shortcut.

Why do we love stories? That this is not an idle question is shown by the fact that we spend an enormous amount of time in our lives following stories: telling and listening to them; reading them; watching them on television or in films or on stage. Despite their recurrent similarity and even predictability, we continue to enjoy them. The paper brings to bear on this question two different strands of current literature in experimental psychology: the literature on aesthetic preferences, and the literature on curiosity and interest. The paper discusses how, in the case of storytelling in particular, though also of creative activities in general, there are two types of curiosity at work: explorative curiosity – associated with investigating new ideas for the simple joy of it and regardless of source – and specific curiosity, corresponding to focused exploration and aimed at solving problems for which the accuracy and relevance of information is of importance. In both cases curiosity is felt as an intensely pleasant experience, which is affected not only by external, but also by the internal stimuli of novelty and challenge. But how does interest/curiosity solidify into preferences that have stability enough to guarantee guidance yet sufficient flexibility to allow for change? The answer explored here highlights the distinction between comfort goods and activities and creative goods and activities. The latter, which allow for complexity, variety and multiplicity of dimensions have a transformative power that allows also for sustained stimulation and interest. The broader aim is to analyze the “behavior” of individual preferences – how they form, how they stabilize, how they change – in the consumption not only of art, the usual focus in discussion of aesthetic preferences, but also of all those goods and activities that can be called creative.

The authors use FUND 3.9 to estimate the social cost of four greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and sulphur hexafluoride—with sensitivity tests for carbon dioxide fertilization, terrestrial feedbacks, climate sensitivity, discounting, equity weighting, and socioeconomic and emissions assumptions. They also estimate the global damage potential for each gas—the ratio of the social cost of the non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas to the social cost of carbon dioxide. For all gases, they find the social costs and damage potentials sensitive to alternative assumptions. The global damage potentials are compared to global warming potentials (GWPs), a key metric used to compare gases. The authors find that global damage potentials are higher than GWPs in nearly all sensitivities. This finding suggests that previous papers using GWPs may be underestimating the relative importance of reducing noncarbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions from a climate damage perspective. Of particular interest is the sensitivity of results to carbon dioxide fertilization, which notably reduces the social cost of carbon dioxide, but only has a small effect on the other gases. As a result, the global damage potentials for methane and nitrous oxide are much higher with carbon dioxide fertilization included, and higher than many previous estimates.

The literature on systematic fiscal policy and macroeconomic performance in industrialized countries is large but fragmented. Based on a broad overview of that literature, several patterns emerge. First, the empirical literature points toward strongly anticyclical policy, which consists of procyclical tax revenues, acyclical tax rates and government purchases, and countercyclical transfer payments. Secondly, consolidation in response to the debt has come primarily through adjustments to taxes and possibly purchases. Thirdly, a large government is associated with reduced macroeconomic volatility. Meanwhile, the theoretical literature on anticyclical fiscal policy has gone from mostly focusing on government purchases and tax rates toward beginning to focus on transfer payments, although more quantitative work remains to be done in linking theory with empirics. In addition, a policy literature has begun to develop, which has applied lessons from the theoretical literature in order to understand different consolidation scenarios and different proposed fiscal rules, particularly in Europe.

Trade between regions separated by a sea border is affected by specific transport costs that have not been considered by the border effects literature. Among these are the existence of a time barrier, the need to combine different transport modes, or to pay fees and taxes for the use of public infrastructures such as ports and airports. The empirical strategy used to estimate the “island effect” proceeds in two steps: first an augmented gravity model is estimated for mainland and island regions; then a Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition is applied to the gravity estimation results in order to disentangle the distance and border effects for those regions. Results show that island regions are at a substantial disadvantage compared to continental regions, which is due to the higher and non-linear effect of distance coefficients.