Chapters in this book

1. Frontmatter i
2. National Bureau of Economic Research v
3. Relation of the Directors to the Work and Publications of the National Bureau of Economic Research vi
4. Contents ix
5. Acknowledgments xi
6. Preface xiii
7. I. THEORIES AND EVIDENCE
8. 1. Macroeconomics and Business Cycles: An Overview 1
9. 2. Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective 20
10. 3. Facts and Factors in the Modern Evolution of U.S. Economic Fluctuations 77
11. 4. Cyclical Aspects of Cost and Price Movements 125
12. 5. Research during the First 50 Years of the National Bureau 164
13. II. HISTORY AND MEASUREMENT
14. 6. How Trends and Fluctuations Are Observed, Modeled, and Simulated: An Introduction 183
15. 7. Business Cycles and Growth 203
16. 8. The Regularity of Business Cycles 232
17. 9. Econometric Model Simulations and the Cyclical Characteristics of the Economy 265
18. III. INDICATORS
19. 10. Cyclical Indicators: Structure, Significance, and Uses 283
20. 11. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators 316
21. 12. Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes 357
22. IV. FORECASTING
23. 13. On Short-Term Predictions of General Economic Conditions 385
24. 14. An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Aggregate Forecasts 414
25. 15. The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts 444
26. 16. Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts 462
27. 17. Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction 492
28. 18. The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting 519
29. References 535
30. Author Index 577
31. Subject Index 585