5. Why Does the Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity?

Chapters in this book

1. Frontmatter i
2. Relation of the Directors to the Work and Publications of the National Bureau of Economic Research vi
3. Contents vii
4. Acknowledgments ix
5. Introduction 1
6. 1. Twenty-two Years of the NBERASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance 11
7. 2. A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience 95
8. 3. Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation 157
9. 4. A Nine-Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model 179
10. 5. Why Does the Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity? 213
11. 6. Further Evidence on Business- Cycle Duration Dependence 255
12. 7. A Dynamic Index Model for Large Cross Sections 285
13. 8. Modeling Nonlinearity over the Business Cycle 311
14. Contributors 327
15. Author Index 329
16. Subject Index 333