Chapters in this book

1. Frontmatter i
2. Contents vii
3. Acknowledgments ix
4. Introduction 1
5. One. Causes, Beginnings and Predictions: The Power Transition 13
6. Two. Davids and Goliaths: Predicting the Outcomes of International Wars 64
7. Three. The Costs of Major Wars: The Phoenix Factor 104
8. Four. Nuclear Arms Races and Deterrence 147
9. Appendix 1: Index of Political Development 227
10. Appendix 2: Postwar American Aid 234
11. Appendix 3: Analysis of Models 236
12. Notes 243
13. Bibliography 271
14. Index 283