Bristol University Press
3 Modelling Pandemics
Abstract
Chapter 3 explores the critical role played by modelling during the COVID-19 pandemic and the implications of policy makers’ reliance on modellers’ predictions. The World Health Organization’s declaration of a pandemic in 2020 brought to public prominence the arcane language of epidemiology and public health. The pandemic has arguably altered community perceptions of pandemics and infectious disease and public health experts. The chapter discusses how modelling shapes understandings of and responses to a pandemic and conceptions of science and society. It argues that models do not just predict potential futures but shape futures in ways that are rarely acknowledged in debates about their utility. The different kinds of models used in public health are discussed as well as their biopolitical and surveillance implications, and the history of their use in earlier epidemics and pandemics. Models can be conceived as ‘crisis technologies’ that have many shortcomings in practice, and their applications well illustrate science-as-politics. The chapter considers shifts in the practices of science and applications of technology manifest in ‘real-time’ modelling during COVID-19, and the various initiatives used to collect, share, and utilize data. While some scientists have raised concerns about reliance on modelling for pandemic decision making, during COVID-19 these were mostly ignored or set aside by policy makers in implementing measures based on the utilitarian calculus of the presumed community benefits that would be derived from measures.
Abstract
Chapter 3 explores the critical role played by modelling during the COVID-19 pandemic and the implications of policy makers’ reliance on modellers’ predictions. The World Health Organization’s declaration of a pandemic in 2020 brought to public prominence the arcane language of epidemiology and public health. The pandemic has arguably altered community perceptions of pandemics and infectious disease and public health experts. The chapter discusses how modelling shapes understandings of and responses to a pandemic and conceptions of science and society. It argues that models do not just predict potential futures but shape futures in ways that are rarely acknowledged in debates about their utility. The different kinds of models used in public health are discussed as well as their biopolitical and surveillance implications, and the history of their use in earlier epidemics and pandemics. Models can be conceived as ‘crisis technologies’ that have many shortcomings in practice, and their applications well illustrate science-as-politics. The chapter considers shifts in the practices of science and applications of technology manifest in ‘real-time’ modelling during COVID-19, and the various initiatives used to collect, share, and utilize data. While some scientists have raised concerns about reliance on modelling for pandemic decision making, during COVID-19 these were mostly ignored or set aside by policy makers in implementing measures based on the utilitarian calculus of the presumed community benefits that would be derived from measures.
Chapters in this book
- Front Matter i
- Contents iii
- Acknowledgements iv
- Pandemics as Socio-Political Phenomena 1
- The Politics of Framing a Pandemic Crisis 25
- Modelling Pandemics 50
- Pandemic Crisis and Inequalities 71
- Pandemic Crisis and Technological Change 86
- Future Pandemic Societies 108
- References 130
- Index 162
Chapters in this book
- Front Matter i
- Contents iii
- Acknowledgements iv
- Pandemics as Socio-Political Phenomena 1
- The Politics of Framing a Pandemic Crisis 25
- Modelling Pandemics 50
- Pandemic Crisis and Inequalities 71
- Pandemic Crisis and Technological Change 86
- Future Pandemic Societies 108
- References 130
- Index 162
