Quantitative application of Monte Carlo simulation in Fire-PSA
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O. Keski-Rahkonen
Abstract
In a power plant a fire cell forms the basic subunit. Since the fire is initially located there, the full-scale time dependent fire simulation and estimation of target response must be performed within the fire cell. Conditional, time dependent damage probabilities in a fire cell can now be calculated for arbitrary targets (component or a subsystem) combining probabilistic (Monte Carlo) and deterministic simulation. For the latter a spectrum from simple correlations up to latest computational fluid dynamics models is available. Selection of the code is made according to the requirements from the target cell. Although calculations are numerically heavy, it is now economically possible and feasible to carry out quantitative fire-PSA for a complete plant iteratively with the main PSA. From real applications examples are shown on assessment of fire spread possibility in a relay room, and potential of fire spread on cables in a tunnel.
Kurzfassung
In einem Kraftwerk bildet ein Brandbereich die kleinste Einheit, in der das Feuer ursprünglich entstanden ist und von der ausgehend umfangreiche zeitabhängige Brandsimulationen und Abschätzungen der Einwirkungen auf Targets (z. B. Komponenten) infolge des Brandes durchgeführt werden. Bedingte zeitabhängige Wahrscheinlichkeiten für die Schädigung beliebiger Targets (Komponenten oder Teilsysteme) in einem Brandbereich können dann berechnet werden, indem probabilistische (Monte Carlo) und deterministische Simulationen durchgeführt werden. Für letztere ist ein Spektrum von Modellen verfügbar, von einfachen Korrelationen bis zu den neuesten numerischen strömungsdynamischen Modellen. Die Auswahl des Rechenprogramms ist abhängig von den Szenarien und den Randbedingungen des Bereichs, in dem sich das Target befindet. Obwohl die Berechnungen numerisch sehr aufwendig sind, ist es heutzutage ökonomisch möglich, quantitative Brandanalysen für eine komplette Anlage in iterativen Schritten mit der probabilistischen Sicherheitsanalyse im Leistungsbetrieb eines Kernkraftwerks durchzuführen. Als Beispiele werden die Einschätzung einer möglichen Brandausbreitung in einen Relaisraum und der Brandausbreitung auf Kabel in einem Tunnel beschrieben.
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© 2007, Carl Hanser Verlag, München
Articles in the same Issue
- Summaries/Kurzfassungen
- Summaries
- Editorial
- Fire protection – maintaining and enhancing the safety of nuclear power plants
- Technical Contributions/Fachbeiträge
- National and international standards and recommendations on fire protection and fire safety assessment
- Fire tests to validate fire simulation codes: experimental results
- Fire tests to validate fire simulation codes: numerical results
- The OECD FIRE database
- The RES/EPRI concensus – fire probabilistic risk assessment method∗
- Fire PSA of the French PWR 900 MWe series
- Fire PSA of the French PWR 900 MWe series
- Methods for a Fire PSA exemplarily applied to a German BWR-69 type nuclear power plant
- Probabilistic safety analysis for fire events for the NPP Isar 2
- Quantitative application of Monte Carlo simulation in Fire-PSA
Articles in the same Issue
- Summaries/Kurzfassungen
- Summaries
- Editorial
- Fire protection – maintaining and enhancing the safety of nuclear power plants
- Technical Contributions/Fachbeiträge
- National and international standards and recommendations on fire protection and fire safety assessment
- Fire tests to validate fire simulation codes: experimental results
- Fire tests to validate fire simulation codes: numerical results
- The OECD FIRE database
- The RES/EPRI concensus – fire probabilistic risk assessment method∗
- Fire PSA of the French PWR 900 MWe series
- Fire PSA of the French PWR 900 MWe series
- Methods for a Fire PSA exemplarily applied to a German BWR-69 type nuclear power plant
- Probabilistic safety analysis for fire events for the NPP Isar 2
- Quantitative application of Monte Carlo simulation in Fire-PSA
