Further development of the coupling model
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A. Kreuser
Abstract
Uncertainties arising from different sources have to be considered for the quantification of common cause failures (CCFs). At GRS a CCF model (coupling model) has been developed for the estimation of CCF probabilities. An essential feature of the coupling model is the consideration of these uncertainties by using Bayesian estimation methods. Experiences from applying the coupling model to CCF event data over several years and analyzing the results in detail has led to improvements in the application of the model. In this paper the improved methodology of the coupling model is presented. Special emphasis is given to the description of the sources of uncertainties which are considered in the coupling model and the mathematical methodology, how these uncertainties are represented and propagated through the model. In closing topics of future improvements of the coupling models are discussed.
Kurzfassung
Bei der Quantifizierung von gemeinsam verursachten Ausfällen (GVA, engl. CCF) müssen Unsicherheiten aus verschiedenen Quellen berücksichtigt werden. Bei der GRS wurde ein Modell zur Schätzung von GVA-Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeiten, das Kopplungsmodell, entwickelt, bei dem diese Unsicherheiten durch Anwendung Bayes'scher Methoden berücksichtigt werden können. Erfahrungen bei Einsatz des Kopplungsmodells über mehrere Jahre und die detaillierte Analyse der Ergebnisse führten zu Verbesserungen bei der Anwendung des Modells. In diesem Beitrag wird die verbesserte Methodik des Kopplungsmodells dargestellt. Dabei wird der Schwerpunkt auf die Beschreibung der verschiedenen Unsicherheitsquellen und der mathematischen Methoden zu ihrer Berücksichtigung gelegt. Abschließend werden Ansätze zur weiteren Verbesserung des Kopplungsmodells diskutiert.
References
1Hauptmanns, U.; Kreuser, A.; Peschke, J.: Vorgehensweise bei der Behandlung von GVA. GRS-A-2160, July 1994Suche in Google Scholar
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4Nuclear Energy Agency Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations: ICDE General Coding Guidelines – Technical Note, NEA/CSNI/R(2004)4, OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, January 2004Suche in Google Scholar
5Kreuser, A.; Peschke, J.; Verstegen, C.: Practical Application of Expert Judgement in Assessing Operation Experience for Generating Reliability Data, Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM6), San Juan, Puerto Rico, June 2002Suche in Google Scholar
6Kreuser, A.; Verstegen, C.; Schubert, B.; Wohlstein, R.: Development and Structure of the German Common Cause Failure Data Pool, accepted for the 8th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 8), May 2006Suche in Google Scholar
© 2006, Carl Hanser Verlag, München
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Contents/Inhalt
- Contents
- Summaries/Kurzfassungen
- Summaries
- Editorial
- Common cause failure analysis within the framework of probabilistic safety assessment
- Technical Contributions/Fachbeiträge
- Updated requirements on PSA methods and data for comprehensive safety reviews in Germany
- OECD/NEA International Common Cause Failure Data Exchange (ICDE) Project – insights and lessons learnt
- Protection against dependent failures, analysis of dependencies and derivation of CCF data
- Extension of the German database for common cause failure events
- International network on incorporation of ageing effects into PSA
- CCF analysis for new reactor designs
- CCF treatment in PSA: insights and recommendations from reviewing procedures
- Is mapping a part of common cause failure quantification?
- Further development of the coupling model
- The Process-Oriented Simulation (POS) model for common cause failures: recent progress
- CCF analysis in PSA applications from a licensee view
- Notes
- Radiation protection of outside workers
- Technical Contributions/Fachbeiträge
- Occupational exposure to natural radiation
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Contents/Inhalt
- Contents
- Summaries/Kurzfassungen
- Summaries
- Editorial
- Common cause failure analysis within the framework of probabilistic safety assessment
- Technical Contributions/Fachbeiträge
- Updated requirements on PSA methods and data for comprehensive safety reviews in Germany
- OECD/NEA International Common Cause Failure Data Exchange (ICDE) Project – insights and lessons learnt
- Protection against dependent failures, analysis of dependencies and derivation of CCF data
- Extension of the German database for common cause failure events
- International network on incorporation of ageing effects into PSA
- CCF analysis for new reactor designs
- CCF treatment in PSA: insights and recommendations from reviewing procedures
- Is mapping a part of common cause failure quantification?
- Further development of the coupling model
- The Process-Oriented Simulation (POS) model for common cause failures: recent progress
- CCF analysis in PSA applications from a licensee view
- Notes
- Radiation protection of outside workers
- Technical Contributions/Fachbeiträge
- Occupational exposure to natural radiation
